Debunking insurgency assertion: Is Nigeria winning the war on insurgency and kidnapping?

Nigeria is experiencing a severe security crisis. The threat from Boko Haram in the Northeast, armed gangs in the Northwest, and separatist movements in the Southeast has created a dangerous environment. Kidnapping has become widespread, affecting millions.

In his recent Independence Day speech, President Bola Tinubu asserted that his administration is “winning the war on terror and banditry.” He cited the elimination of over 300 commanders from Boko Haram and other violent groups as evidence of progress. However, this optimistic narrative raises questions when scrutinised against the grim realities on the ground.

 “The disconnect between official proclamations and the facts on the ground suggests that the insurgency and kidnapping crises are far from resolved.”

Reports from SBM Intelligence paint a starkly different picture. Between July 2023 and June 2024, at least 7,568 individuals were abducted across Nigeria in 1,130 incidents.

With ransom demands totalling N10.995 billion (around $6.87 million) and only N1.048 billion, or 9.5 percent, paid, it’s evident that kidnappers are expanding their operations, increasingly targeting less affluent victims. These statistics suggest that, rather than improving, the security situation may be deteriorating.

The same report reveals that 1,056 people were killed during these kidnappings, a statistic that highlights the rising brutality of the crime. These alarming figures stand in stark contrast to the government’s narrative of success.

Read also: Nigeria’s insecurity crisis: A threat to national and global food security

Rising insecurity amid optimistic claims

Despite the president’s confident rhetoric, Nigeria’s kidnapping epidemic continues to spiral out of control. The SBM report makes it clear: kidnappings are not only more frequent but more lethal.

The state of Zamfara alone recorded 132 incidents, with 1,639 victims and 146 deaths, making it the epicentre of Nigeria’s kidnapping crisis. Other states, such as Katsina, Kaduna, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), also face severe challenges.

In addition to these issues, the situation in the Northern regions, particularly the Northwest, remains dire. Although there was a slight drop in incidents in 2023, by mid-2024, the number of kidnapping cases in the North exceeded the combined totals of the two previous years.

This spike, especially in the North, underscores the fact that violent groups are adapting and expanding their operations, even as the government claims to be gaining ground.

The disconnect between official proclamations and the facts on the ground suggests that the insurgency and kidnapping crises are far from resolved.

Implications for individuals, businesses, and communities

A political scientist speaking to BusinessDay explained that the surge in kidnappings has created significant challenges for Nigerians, particularly in rural areas.

“In regions like Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna, people live in constant fear, which has disrupted farming activities and worsened food supply issues,” he noted.

The situation is compounded by rising fuel prices, driving up food costs, and disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable.

For businesses, especially in northern regions, the financial strain of addressing security concerns has become overwhelming. Companies now divert significant resources to private security, driving up operational costs.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) reported that many manufacturers spend more on security than taxes. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, MAN’s Director-General, stated, “Insecurity has forced 56 to 60 percent of our members in the North-East to halt production entirely.”

These escalating security costs pose long-term risks to Nigeria’s economic stability. “Businesses are closing, unemployment is rising, and this only exacerbates insecurity, creating a vicious cycle of instability,” Ajayi-Kadir added.

At the national level, funds that could bolster development are being redirected toward military efforts. A developmental economist remarked, “Insecurity drives poverty, and poverty fuels instability. Large parts of the country remain ungoverned, severely limiting growth.”

Without major intervention, the cycle of insecurity and economic decline will continue, casting a shadow over Nigeria’s future prospects for recovery and development.

Read also: End of insurgency in North East in sight – CAS tell troops

A financially lucrative enterprise for criminals

Kidnapping in Nigeria has become a profitable industry, and it is evolving. While earlier kidnappers primarily targeted wealthy individuals or high-profile figures, today’s abductors are less discerning.

The SBM report notes that kidnappers received N1.048 billion in ransom over the last year. While this is only a fraction of what was demanded, it points to a dark reality: kidnappers are casting wider nets and abducting more people, regardless of their financial status.

This shift in strategy indicates a maturing, and potentially more dangerous, criminal enterprise.

The implication is clear: as long as kidnappers continue to reap financial rewards, they will remain an active threat.

The sheer volume of abductions and the relative ease with which ransoms are paid suggest that, for many criminals, kidnapping is a low-risk, high-reward activity.

Without robust legal and security responses, this trend is likely to continue, with ever-increasing social and economic costs.

The way forward: Can Nigeria win?

Despite the grim outlook, there are ways in which Nigeria can begin to turn the tide. First, the government must focus on addressing the underlying drivers of insecurity.

Poverty, unemployment, and lack of access to basic services are all contributing factors to the rise of both insurgency and kidnapping.

Development policies that target the root causes of instability—such as improving education, creating jobs, and expanding infrastructure in neglected regions—are crucial.

Additionally, the government must rebuild trust with local communities. For years, Nigerian citizens in affected areas have felt abandoned by the state, and as a result, some have turned to armed groups for protection.

By prioritising local engagement, improving intelligence gathering, and enhancing coordination between security agencies, the government can begin to disrupt the kidnapping networks that now operate with impunity.

On the legal front, strengthening Nigeria’s judicial system is imperative. Many kidnappers are never caught, and those who are often evade justice due to corruption or inefficiencies in the legal system.

Swift, transparent trials, followed by appropriately severe sentences, would send a strong signal to would-be kidnappers that their actions will not go unpunished.

While President Tinubu’s assertion that Nigeria is winning the war on insurgency and banditry may resonate politically, the evidence on the ground paints a far more troubling picture.

Kidnappings are on the rise, insurgents continue to terrorise communities, and the economic and social costs of insecurity are mounting.

Nigeria’s security challenges require more than military victories; they demand a comprehensive approach that addresses the underlying causes of instability, strengthens the rule of law, and restores confidence in the government’s ability to protect its citizens.

Until such measures are implemented, the war on insurgency and kidnapping will remain far from won.

Oluwatobi Ojabello, senior economic analyst at BusinessDay, holds a BSc and an MSc in Economics as well as a PhD (in view) in Economics (Covenant, Ota).