Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation with the seventh-largest Covid-19 cases on the continent, will require roughly 300 million doses of vaccines to develop herd immunity among its population, BusinessDay analysis finds.
Herd immunity means boosting the immunity among people to a point where the proportion of those susceptible to the disease become significantly lower to those who can’t be infected.
It can be achieved naturally by having a large portion of the population recover from infection (meaning many vulnerable ones might die along the way) or simply through vaccines.
A study conducted by scientists at the College of Medicine, the University of Ibadan in June 2020 estimated that about 5.2 million Covid-19 deaths would have occurred across Africa while waiting for about 67 percent of the population to recover from the infection – a grossly expensive venture.
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“The herd immunity simply depends on the basic reproduction number of the pathogen, and is defined as the average number of secondary infections introduced by a single infectious individual into a wholly susceptible population,” the study commissioned by the Pan African Medical Journal states.
So, using the vaccination method, the Federal Government plans to cover 70 percent of its population estimated at 206.1 million by the United Nations.
Vaccinating 70 percent means 144.2 million people will get at least a two-dose regimen, amounting to over 288.5 million doses required.
“We are looking to vaccinate up to 150 million Nigerians and in doing all of that we have to consider the epidemiology of the virus. That is who the people are and where the hotspots are,” Faisal Shuaib, CEO, National Primary Healthcare Development Agency (NPHDA), said during a televised programme on Friday.
From where?
If Nigeria was to buy directly from vaccine manufacturers like wealthier countries have done, it will, for instance, spend about $11.3 billion on acquiring Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine at $19.5 per dose to cover the targeted population.
That appears not feasible, at least due to the dire straight that the pandemic disruptions have left on the economy.
Hence, the government is looking at different options including the first phase of 100,000 doses expected from Pfizer and 42 million doses expected through the COVAX facility organised by the World Health Organisation (WHO), Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).
Matshidiso Moeti, regional director for Africa, WHO, on Thursday assured that the first tranche of the 600 million doses expected under the agreement would arrive by the end of March, with a larger rollout to start by June.
This means that part of the 42 million doses of vaccines Nigeria expects under COVAX agreements could begin to flow in from April.
Besides these arrangements, Nigeria also looks forward to the provision of 270 million doses that the Africa Union plans to secure for Africa before the end of the year.
There are also talks of negotiations for vaccines going on with China, while state governments are equally pushing for acquiring independently from manufacturers.
Enough for herd immunity?
With the number of doses expected from other channels still uncertain, the sum of doses from Pfizer and COVAX will not be sufficient to achieve herd immunity.
The 42.1 million doses means only 14.5 percent of the targeted population will be covered by the vaccines.
Given this reality, existing preventing measures of using face masks, hand washing, sanitising and maintaining physical distancing remains the key to slowing infection.
