The International Energy Association in its July Oil Market Report (OMR) has stated that record pumping rates in the Middle East and recovering flows in Nigeria is helping to consolidate Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) market share.
The report stated that global oil supplies rose by 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June, to 96 mb/d, after outages curbed OPEC and non-OPEC supplies in May, while production was 750 (thousand barrels per day) kb/d below, as higher OPEC output only partially offset non-OPEC declines.
It further states that non-OPEC supplies are set to decline by 0.9 mb/d in 2016, to 56.5 mb/d, before rising 0.2 mb/d in 2017.
OPEC crude output rose by 400 kb/d in June to an eight-year high of 33.21 mb/d, including newly re-joined Gabon. Saudi Arabia ramped up to a near-record rate of 10.45 mb/d and Nigerian flows partially recovered. Middle East producers sustained record pumping rates, consolidating market share and pushing OPEC’s total output 510 kb/d above one year ago.
“Robust European demand supported second quarter 2016 global demand growth at around 1.4 mb/d year-on-year, momentum that will be roughly matched through the year as a whole. A modest deceleration is foreseen in 2017, as growth eases to 1.3 mb/d taking average deliveries up to 97.4 mb/d,” the report states.
Crude oil prices eased from an early June peak above $52/bbl, but traded within a $45-$50/bbl range. Growing uncertainty over the global economy and the related dollar strength weighed, but the downside was limited by further declines in US production and inventories.
May global refinery throughput plunged by almost 1 mb/d from April, to 1.5 mb/d year-on-year, as heavy outages took their toll in many regions. This lowered the second quarter estimate for global refinery intake to 78.54 mb/d – the first year-on-year drop in three years. The forecast for third quarter throughput is steadier at 80.95 mb/d.
ISAAC ANYAOGU
