Connecting with global security realities

Let me start by saying that the world is going through a new world order with the emergence of the Taliban in Kabul. The danger in Kabul has just started after the carnage of twin bombings that was reported to have killed 13 United States service members and more than 60 Afghans near Kabul international airport. Unfortunately, the US military has warned of more to come. War has an enduring nature that has always validated four connections namely, political dimension, human dimension, existence of uncertainty and a contest of will. War, military experts say, is violent, interactive and fundamentally political. While the character of war, describes the changing way that war as a phenomenon manifests in the real world.

When it comes to matters of violence, I always like to draw inspiration from the book On War, authored by Clausewitz. The Prussian General, Carl Von Clausewitz, described war in holistic terms as a paradoxical trinity comprising the tendencies of the people, the commander and his army, and the government. He theorized that the passions that kindle war must be innate in the people, the courage and talent of the commander and army plays into the realm of probability and chance, but the political aims are only the business of the government in power alone. Clausewitz wrote his famous book titled On War in a time when wars were fought by states with clearly defined armies. At that time, war was confined to battle fields and uniformed combatants.

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Since the 19th Century, the nature of war has remained the same while the character of war has been changing. We now have a rag tag group who terrorize people, the military and government in Nigeria. Barracks have been bombed, religious houses shelled, military men and women killed, cops murdered and defence equipment forcefully taken by “unknown gunmen.” Innocent children and parents have been killed and abducted for ransom, farmers and herders either abducted or slayed; travelers abducted etcetera by the same “unknown gunmen.” But we have public intellectuals and media analysts with conspiracy theories that the government knows the “unknown gunmen ” and their locations in some of the nation’s thick forests. With the fall of Afghanistan, and the attack on citizens and government installations in Nigeria, a few international relations experts are not really surprised by the level of insecurity globally and most importantly, in our country. At the heart of their conversation was that a new world order is gradually emerging.

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My respected readers may remember that immediately after the Cold War, several scholars came up with theories as to events that will shape the world in the Post – Cold War era – the demise of bipolarity and questions about the status of American hegemony. One of the legitimizing discourses that caught the attention of scholars globally was that of Samuel P Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations thesis. In his thesis, one of the sections offered a psychological critique of the clash of civilizations thesis thus, suggesting a nexus between “knowledge and violence.”

The world is a global village. With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, we must keep it in mind that Islamist extremists will exploit ungoverned spaces through “kindred spirits.”

Huntington strongly argued that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. He went further to say that the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Huntington theorized that nation states will remain the most powerful actors but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. In the final analysis, Huntington was of the view that the clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. He posited that the fault lines between civilizations will be battle lines of the future. On 23 August 2021, “unknown gunmen” entered the Nigerian Defence Academy, killed two officers, injured one and abducted an officer of the rank of Major. Very sad story! What went wrong? I do not know. But unconfirmed reports say those on duty were asleep. When the foundation is destroyed, what can almost 200 million people do? Most citizens are helpless as “unknown gunmen” humiliated Nigeria’s military. If you ask me, the NDA attack was another slap on the country.

The decision by the highest level of government to pardon and reintegrate the blood sucking terrorists in our country as reported in newspapers is either based on very poor risk assessment or blatant maneuver by some individuals in authority for political reasons. If this was true, a colossal decision error in my view, is about to be committed by our leaders. I predict that the consequences of any decision taken by those in authority on “unknown gunmen” shall be seen in the years ahead. It is just a matter of time. I only pray that those in authority at the highest level of government will rescind their decision to pardon those who killed and are still killing innocent Nigerians for the past 10 years.

The world is a global village. With the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, we must keep it in mind that Islamist extremists will exploit ungoverned spaces through “kindred spirits.” Groups known as ISIS – K have emerged in Afghanistan. This group was responsible for the carnage that took place at the Kabul airport. So, when ISIS – K is connected “spiritually” to ISIS/ISWAP, we should be prepared in all respects – spiritual and physical- for the consequences of our decisions.

The government must continuously take the lead in the fight against terrorists. If we want to really deal with the problems of terrorism and banditry, we should not only use counterterrorist forces including sophisticated defence equipment, those in authority must apply a comprehensive approach which includes political brokering, restoring basic services to those areas decimated by terrorists, and provision of infrastructure to the citizens. Thank you.