Why Nigeria’s bold budget projections could backfire

The Nigerian government’s recently approved Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for 2025–2027 sets an ambitious economic tone, but some of its key assumptions are raising eyebrows. Chief among these is the exchange rate pegged at ₦1,400/$ and a crude oil benchmark price of $75 per barrel. While these projections may aim to signal confidence, a closer analysis suggests they rest on shaky foundations with potentially far-reaching consequences. Exchange Rate: Far From Market Realities?