Rivers defection: Can Fubara survive? What’s Wike’s next move?

The political crisis in Rivers State intensified dramatically on Monday when 27 state House of Assembly members defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This mass defection represents a significant escalation in the tense standoff between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory.

The 32-member assembly has been engulfed in turmoil since October, with two rival factions vying for control. On one side is Martin Amaewhule, believed to be loyal to Wike, and on the other is Ibani Ehie, aligned with Fubara. The rift has led to chaotic events, including attempts to impeach the Governor and the Speaker.

With the defection of the majority of lawmakers to the APC, several key questions are now hanging in the air:

Can Fubara Survive Impeachment?
The Amaewhule-led faction had previously served Fubara an impeachment notice, raising concerns about his political future. Although the process stalled, the recent developments suggest it could be reignited. Fubara has vowed to resist impeachment, but the defection has weakened his position.

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Will Wike Join the APC?
The defectors’ allegiance to Wike fuels speculation about his own political future. His growing disaffection with the PDP, evidenced by his refusal to support the party’s presidential candidate, has led many to believe he might follow the defectors to the APC. While Wike has previously denounced the APC, his recent actions and the invitation from the Rivers APC suggest a potential change in his stance.

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Can the APC Take Over Rivers State?
Since 1999, the PDP has held a firm grip on Rivers State politics. However, the mass defection has significantly altered the political landscape, potentially paving the way for the APC to make a serious challenge for power. The party’s control of the national government and the strong support from the defectors could give them a significant advantage in future elections.

The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the fate of Rivers State politics. Whether Fubara can weather the impeachment storm, Wike’s next political move and the APC’s ability to capitalize on its newfound advantage remain open questions.