Few days to the inauguration of 10th National Assembly in Nigeria, the tussle over the choice of principal officers has continued despite the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu making their choice known several weeks ago.
Some key lawmakers-elect have disagreed with the party and President Tinubu’s choices and have thrown themselves into the race.
In recent weeks, several meetings by the APC leadership to broker peace among the lawmakers-elect in both Houses for them to respect the party’s choice, especially with those also eyeing the NASS leadership positions have failed.
There are growing fears among observers that if not handled carefully, the issue can degenerate further and lead to implosion in the APC, while derailing the Tinubu administration’s plans to begin on a sound footing.
Although there have been different interpretations of the current situation by analysts and political experts, there is the general conclusion that the APC would need to be extra-careful and need to widen its consultation beyond where it is.
They noted that many of the major stakeholders must be reached out to and reasonable negotiation must be done.
The party had settled for former minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Senator Godswill Akpabio as president of the Senate, and Senator Barau Jubrin, Kano North Senatorial District (North West) as deputy Senate president.
The party also named Tajudeen Abbass, from Kaduna State (North West) as Speaker of the House and Benjamin Kalu from Abia State (South East) as deputy Speaker.
The APC leaders said the decision was to safeguard a repeat of the 2015 arrangement where the process was hijacked by some other members and those endorsed by the party could not emerge as presiding officers of the National Assembly.
But other aspirants like Abdulaziz Yari, (Zamfara West); Osita Izunaso (Imo West) and Orji Kalu (Abia North) have insisted that they would not step down for the party’s consensus candidates.
Some other APC lawmakers under the aegis of G-6 coalition fiercely opposed the zoning arrangement, describing it as an unconstitutional imposition of leadership of the 10th Assembly by forces outside the National Assembly.
Some have even asked the party’s leadership to be prepared for a repeat of the 2015 episode.
Some key APC leaders across the country have also voiced their concerns about the shape the NASS leadership issue was taking.
In recent weeks, there are reports of an alliance between Kalu and Yari, to forge a common front for the Senate principal officers’ race. However, in the last few days another report indicated that such an alliance between the two senators-elect had failed because they failed to agree on who would step down for the other.
A source said Kalu had threatened to dump the group for the President’s choices if the group refused to rescind its decision not to support him for the Senate presidency after the party had long zoned the office to the south.
The former Abia State governor and chief whip of the Senate was said to have told Yari’s sponsors that it would be the height of religious insensitivity on the path of the former Zamfara governor to want to occupy the office of the Senate president when the president and his vice are both Muslims.
Political watchers say the failure of President Tinubu’s meeting with the lawmakers-elect to resolve the APC’s zoning arrangement crisis some days ago, may just be an indication that the lawmakers in the leadership race are ready to go for broke on Tuesday.
But the APC leadership, Akpabio and Jubril Barau said they have more than 70 some senators-elect backing them and are confident that they would emerge on Tuesday despite opposition by some of their colleagues.
Speaking some days ago, Ali Ndume, representing Borno South, who is leading the campaign for Akpabio said President Tinubu told him that Akpabio was his preferred candidate for the president of the 10th Senate, noting that the President would not change his stand on his choice.
Admitting strong competition from the camp of the former governor of Zamfara State, Yari, Ndume revealed that 75 out of the 109 members of the Senate have already queued behind the ambition of Akpabio as of today.
According to Ndume, “As of today, I am telling you we have 75 senators. All advantages are on our side. We have the support of the party, we have the support of the president, and most importantly we have the support of most of the senators. These senators signed up to endorse our programme.
“Let’s say that some people will jump over at the last minute, that can happen, but I am very confident. I don’t want to be overconfident because people can change their minds, but we have a better candidate.
“We have two candidates that are in front now, that is Yari and Akpabio and our candidate has all the advantages over the other candidate, politically and intellectually, we have an added advantage.”
Similarly, also speaking with journalists a few days ago ahead of Tuesday’s inauguration, Yari said he was the best person to lead the Senate, saying that his focus if elected would be to ensure that Nigerians’ aspiration for good governance is achieved.
Yari assured of ensuring a firm, transparent and purposeful National Assembly ready to partner with the executive to deliver a secured, united and prosperous Nigeria.
“It is important to state, with the permission of my bosses, that I possess the requisite experience, competence, capacity and national acceptance to lead the Senate at this point in time.
“As you all know, I have over the years built strong connections among the various peoples of Nigeria across the 36 states and the FCT, and I understand the nuances of our nation.
“We will build on such ties, connections and experience to heal our nation, foster strong synergies and unity in our country.
“I want to assure you that the National Assembly which we seek to lead will be stable, proactive, listen to and pursue the genuine aspiration and yearnings of Nigerians,’’ Yari said.
Yari added: “It is for these reasons that I put myself forward with the support of the majority of my colleagues and bosses to lead the 10th Senate.
“As fellow stakeholders in this democratic project, I seek your support as always in this noble mission, whose primary objectives are stability, unity, economic development and wellbeing of all Nigerians.”
Political analyst, Ope Otugunwa warned that if the disagreement on APC/Tinubu choice is not resolved between now and Tuesday, history may be on play back like when Bukola Saraki emerged in 2015 He noted that unlike Saraki who was consensus candidate of the opposition then, the reverse is the case with Yari, Kalu and Izunaso.
Otugunwa further said that the three opposition senators in the race are yet to settle for one person among themselves, adding that if all of them go into the race with Akpabio with the backing of many APC lawmakers and a handful of opposition members, the Akwa Ibom lawmaker would win.
“APC has majority of Senators, followed by PDP, Labour Party and NNPP. From these most of the APC members and NNPP would be going for Akpabio as it is now.
“PDP and Labour as it have not shown clearly who or which group it would support but there are indications that the PDP particularly has not forgiven Akpabio for dumping the party even when it made him a new lawmaker, minority leader in 2015 till he left in 2018.
“Plus or minus, Akpabio still has the clout and crowd so far to emerge Senate president.
“But if that happens without proper understanding of the contenders, APC would be thrown into crisis as indicated especially by Yari and Kalu when they protested the choice of Akpabio at APC national secretariat,” he said.
Political Analyst, Tope Ogun, said the current tussle was part of the process in a democracy, noting that he expects reconciliation between the contenders before the election on Tuesday.
“What is happening is not unusual to me, it is part of politics, and politics here is about interest. So, don’t be surprised with what you are seeing from those guys.
“I am not sure if they will dare the President and contest against Akpabio or Abass, even in the House of Representatives, let’s watch and see, but I expect Kalu, Izunaso to step down before Tuesday. I am not sure if Yari will do it, but let see.”
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Some other observers who spoke on condition of anonymity said that it would send a wrong signal if the President succeeds in imposing new leadership of the National Assembly, which would mean that the 10th Assembly would be a mere rubber stamp.
“There is nothing wrong with a ruling party showing preference or for a President to have a candidate, but there is everything wrong with imposing a leadership on the bicameral legislature. They would have completely lost the confidence of Nigerians if that happens on Tuesday. Members must be allowed to choose their leaders,” an observer said.
Since the return to democracy and advent of the current Fourth Republic in 1999, the ruling party and the incumbent president have always had a say in who emerge leaders in the National Assembly.
Political leaders say such a method of choosing leaders at the legislative arm of government was necessary, so that the president can pick those he would feel comfortable working with, while his administration could equally get the required support and cooperation from the National Assembly.
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