As the New Year has taken off in earnest and much talk about power shift in 2023, restructuring, insecurity, among others are still on front burner, there are individuals, institutions and issues that will likely dominate discourse this year. The actions or inactions of these individuals would positively or negatively impact the polity.
Muhammadu Buhari
All eyes are on President Muhammadu Buhari to take actions that could inject life into governance in Nigeria.
His performance so far since assuming office in 2015 has been widely described to be below expectation. He has constantly received criticism among a large section of Nigerians for his administration’s failure to fulfil his campaign promises, part of which was to solve the security challenge bedevilling the country.
The President has also constantly received knocks over his alleged poor handling of the economy and his appointments which have become so glaring to be skewed in favour of a section of the country.
However, in 2021, expectations are high among Nigerians, while Buhari faces an uphill task to end the spate of killings, kidnapping and violent crimes which have worsened in recent time. His administration is also facing unprecedented pressure to revamp the economy and pull the nation out of its second recession in five years. His actions and inactions this year will either be a blessing to Nigeria or otherwise.
Goodluck Jonathan
Since willingly conceding defeat in the 2015 presidential election to the incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari, former president, Goodluck Jonathan has continued to play the role of peace mediator across the globe, particularly on the continent of Africa.
In 2019, he was appointed as the honorary Special Adviser to the Bayelsa Education Trust Fund Board, while also emerging the chairperson of the newly inaugurated International Summit Council for Peace (ISCP). Also, in July 2020, Jonathan was appointed special envoy of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to lead mediation talks during the 2020 Malian protest.
In recent times, there have been insinuations that Jonathan may be interested in contesting the 2023 presidential election.
The permutations were further heightened after some governors of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) paid him a courtesy visit during his recent birthday celebration. The visit was an issue of debate between the APC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with both parties trading words over the implication of the visit.
This year, and ahead the 2023 presidential election, Jonathan would be one of the men to watch on the political turf as all eyes are on him and trailing his moves.
Olusegun Obasanjo
Olusegun Okikiola Obasanjo, who served as Nigerian head of state from 1976 to 1979 and later as a civilian President from 1999 to 2007, is an enigma of sorts. Though regarded as controversial in certain circles, ideologically, he is a nationalist and former member of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) under which he ruled the country for two terms.
He subsequently publicly dumped the party; shredding his membership card in public after he fell out with the leaders of the party and the then president Goodluck Jonathan which he helped to clinch power.
Despite name-calling from certain quarters, Obasanjo has remained a virulent critic of the Buhari administration. He says things as they are without minding whose ox is gored. It is not likely he will lay down his guard this year if things continue to go wrong in the polity.
Since he left office in 2007, Obasanjo has remained a vocal voice in the nation’s politics, while having the knack to play an active role in who becomes Nigeria’s president. He is a rallying point, any day.
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Ahmed Bola Tinubu
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and is credited to be the main brain behind the formation of the party in 2014.
He was elected a senator in Lagos State in the aborted Third Republic and served as elected governor of the state from 1999 to 2007 under the Alliance for Democracy (AD). Since leaving office he has not contested any election in the state, preferring to remain a power broker and godfather.
But in recent times, insinuations are rife over his interest in the 2023 presidential race, though he has not publicly declared his intention. Several of his loyalists have commenced campaigning for him and wooing stakeholders in his favour.
This year, Tinubu is expected to be among the men to watch, this is amid intrigues and the current power tussle in the APC. Would he lose out in the current power play, dump the APC to form another party to actualise his presidential ambition? Would the APC zone the presidency to the South? Time will tell.
Atiku Abubakar
There is strong indication that Atiku Abubakar would declare interest to contest the 2023 presidential ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2023, despite the clamour for power shift to the south. Perhaps, indication of his interest was given recently when he launched his Support Group in Abuja.
Ahead 2023, Atiku is one the men to watch this year, especially since it is apparent that the PDP is not keen on zoning the presidency to any region in 2023.
Atiku served as vice president to Nigeria’s former president, Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999-2007. Before then he had contested the presidential election in 1993, under the Social Democratic Party, losing the presidential primary to Moshood Abiola and Gana Kingibe.
He twice ran as governor of Adamawa State in 1990 and later in1998 before becoming Obasanjo’s running mate during the 1999 presidential election.
He was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress in the 2007 presidential election.
He contested the presidential primaries of the PDP for the 2011 presidential election losing to Goodluck Jonathan.
In 2014, he joined the All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2015 presidential election and contested the presidential primaries losing to Muhammadu Buhari. In 2017, he returned to the PDP and was the party presidential candidate during the 2019 presidential election losing to incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari.
Nasir El-Rufai
Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai is the governor of Kaduna State. He has been in office since 2015. He was previously the minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) from 2003 to 2007; and the director-general of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE). He is a founding member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
El-Rufail is expected to be among those to watch this year, particularly because of his touted interest in the 2023 presidential race.
Though his party has not publicly zoned the presidential ticket to any zone amid agitations, observers say that El-Rufai is a force to reckon with in the APC, while his ambition could not be ignored due to his closeness to President Buhari.
Orji Uzor Kalu
Orji Uzor Kalu is a politician and businessman. He is the chairman of SLOK Holding and publisher of the Daily Sun and New Telegraph newspapers in Nigeria.
He served as the governor of Abia State, Nigeria from 29 May 1999 to 29 May 2007. In 2019, he won the senatorial election, but was jailed some months later for corruption. The circumstances surrounding his release from prison and his activities since after he braced freedom point to certain political grand plan in the offing.
Until recently, Kalu has been a vocal voice for the actualisation of Igbo presidency; there have been rumours of his interest in the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC. Though, he has not publicly declared his ambition.
Kalu is a close associate of President Muhammadu Buhari and worked actively for his re-election. Amid increased clamour for the zoning of the presidency to the Southeast in 2023, Kalu would be among the men to watch this year.
Willie Obiano
Willie Obiano is the incumbent governor of Anambra State. He is on the last lap of his second term in office. Another election will hold in the state sometime this year to fill the space he would be vacating. In Nigeria as in many other parts of the world, incumbents always try to anoint successors. Obiano is of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Would he anoint a successor? Would he decamp to the APC as being speculated? A lot of interpretations would be made of his body language this year.
Tukur Buratai/Army
Tukur Yusuf Buratai is an Army Lieutenant General and the current Chief of Army Staff of Nigeria, a position he was appointed to by President Muhammadu Buhari in July 2015.
Amid the spate of insecurity across the country in recent times, there has been increased pressure on President Buhari to sack the service chiefs.
There is the general belief among Nigerians that the service chiefs are not doing enough and are weary, and that fresh ideas are needed if the current killings, kidnapping and other crimes are to be checked. As long as insecurity situation in the country persists, Buratai’s name and that of the Army as an institution would continue to be on the lips of Nigerians.
This year, there would be increased expectations and pressure on Buratai and the other service chiefs to live up to expectation if the President continues to retain them.
Buratai was commissioned in 1983 and has had multiple command, administrative, and instructional appointments.
INEC/Mahmood Yakubu
Mahmood Yakubu, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), is a Nigerian academic appointed to office by President Muhammadu Buhari on 21 October 2015 and was reappointed for another five-year term last December.
Since succeeding Mahmud Jega, Yakubu has tried to follow his predecessor’s step by introducing some reforms in the electoral system.
The commission has promised to go electronic in the conduct of elections with the Anambra State gubernatorial election later this year.
However, Yakubu received criticism in some quarters over his handling of the 2019 general election. This year, Nigerians would be looking up to Yakubu to keep up with his words and introduce the necessary technology to enhance the credibility of elections in Nigeria.
Nick Dazang, director, Voter Education and Publicity, INEC, said recently, “The commission has been engaging the National Assembly since 2007, that certain amendments are visited to the constitution and electoral act with a view to adding value to the conduct of elections. We would be delighted, if we are able to see this in the first quarter of 2021 as promised by the leadership of the national Assembly.”
Ohanaeze Ndigbo
Ohanaeze, the Igbo apex socio-cultural group in Nigeria, represents all Igbo communities within and outside Nigeria. Igbo, by census, represent one of the three largest ethnic groups in Nigeria. Founded in 1976, in Enugu, the group has been a voice for the people of the geo-political zone.
Ahead of 2023, Ohanaeze leaders have been vocal in calling for a power shift to the region in 2023, maintaining that it is a right to the Southeast zone, not a privilege to get the presidency in 2023.
Damian Okeke-Ogene from Anambra State said recently, “We are pursuing Igbo president because the executive of Ohanaeze led by Nnia Nwodo has the mandate of Ndigbo to negotiate the Igbo position in Nigeria.
“He wasn’t given a mandate for the Sovereign State of Biafra. That’s why we are saying, give us what is due for us and Nigeria’s president of Igbo extraction is what we are looking for”.
PDP
This year, the main opposition party in the country, the People’s Democratic Party is expected to be on top of its game. The party has been criticised for not playing its role well and for allowing the ruling party to run away with anti-people policies. The PDP is also expected to put its house in order as the nation inches toward another round of general election in 2023. What the party does this year or fails to do would give an indication of its readiness or otherwise for the battle in 2023.
APC
The All Progressives Congress has continued to manage its internal crises. The party has oscillated from one internal wrangling to another, which has created a picture of instability. It has been said in many quarters that had it been that the party is in power, it would have since gone under. A lot of those in the party are said to be there because of the presence of President Muhammadu Buhari. It is also said that towards the end of this year, the President could become less and less concern with what happens in, and to the APC, then the real crisis would set in. How sincere the party responds to these insinuations would determine what happens to it in 2023. All eyes will continue to be on the party this year.
The Nigeria Police
For many years now, the Nigeria Police have been playing a key role in the political affairs of the country, particularly during elections. There have been allegations against some personnel who collude with some politicians to commit electoral offences. Some off-season and by-elections would hold this year, how the police go about their job of providing security for voters, INEC personnel and materials would tell if the #EndSARS protest made any impact.
Power shift/Restructuring
Two major issues that would prominently feature in many discourse and fora this year are power shift and restructuring. In the immediate past year, they were discussed at very high level. This year, the volume at which the voices of the agitators would rise is expected to be deafening.
