Oily tales from oiled tongues

As the days went by, the oily tales became more densely oiled—amusing, amazing, and even awesome. For instance, contrary to public perception, Aliko Dangote, the only rich man in a very large community (and therefore poor), told a bewildered nation that the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals (DRL) was built without support or a single incentive from the Nigerian government. He claimed it was fully paid for despite several instances of “enemy action” by the government. He made this weighty revelation at the Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria Summit in Lagos on October 8, 2024. Very few Nigerians believed him.

At that same summit, the Minister of State for Petroleum, Heineken Lokpobiri, advised the NNPC to abandon its four refineries and take greater stakes in Dangote and other refineries. Of course, this was denied the following day, further fueling the discourse. A member of the Association of Table Shakers of Nigeria (ATSoN), Adeola Soetan, revealed that Dangote paid $100 million for the expansive Dangote site, but only $1.4 million was recorded in the Lagos State Government’s books! Somebody is still trying to extinguish this fiery controversy.

Some content creators added fuel to the tales by likening the NNPC to a man with four full-time wives (refineries) frantically chasing an untested side chick. Another generated a mathematical riddle from the quagmire: “If Dangote complained about NNPC, NNPC complained about Dangote, IPMAN complained about Dangote, and people complained about pump prices, calculate the area of the triangle and find X!”

Then, Dangote complained that dealers ignored the 500 million litres of fuel at his depot. The dealers challenged him to prove that he had such stock, lamenting delays in loading at DRL and the miserable margins from Dangote fuel. Meanwhile, IPMAN accused NNPC of profiteering, insisting NNPC should either sell to them at Dangote’s price or return the billions they had deposited. Even the price at which NNPC bought fuel from Dangote became a contentious issue, with the two entities disputing publicly.

Read also: NNPC accused of loading old stock from PH Refinery, not fresh products

The federal government denied any culpability in the various price increases, while the NNPC claimed it was not influenced by the government. Instead, it cited the dynamics of the global oil market. Incidentally, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, was speaking on behalf of NNPC—a private company!

While NNPC, IPMAN, and others continue importing fuel, African countries are lining up to buy from DRL. Then Dangote took some of the importers, including NNPC and Matrix, to court, seeking to void their import licenses. Suddenly, the DSS got involved in the dispute between NNPC and IPMAN. On Friday, November 8, 2024, civil society organizations staged demonstrations against the NNPC-DRL faceoff.

The tales took a religious dimension when the General Overseer, Enoch Adeboye, blamed the anti-subsidy removal cabal for the naira’s freefall, which, but for his prayers, would have reached ₦10,000/$. He also called on heavenly armies against those sabotaging DRL. Meanwhile, the Port Harcourt Refinery has reportedly commenced operations after gulping another $1.5 billion. The presidency is ecstatic! At least DRL will now breathe a sigh of relief since NNPC has something to keep it busy. But, like Thomas, I will not believe the Port Harcourt Refinery is operational until I drive my car from Ijebu Ode to Port Harcourt and buy fuel directly from the refinery.

Ministers are also entangled in these oily tales. The Coordinating Minister of the Economy announced that the federal government had saved $20 billion from the removal of the oil subsidy, but that it was the burden of “cost under-recovery” that nearly sunk NNPC. The Minister of Power gleefully claimed Nigerians were content with the high cost of fuel because of the improved power supply. Earlier, the Minister of State for Labour declared that NNPC did not contribute a dime to the 2024 budget and reminded Nigerians that the president also suffered the consequences of fuel price hikes.

The Upstream Regulatory Commission stated Nigeria’s daily crude production is 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), but NNPC claimed it was 1.8 mbpd. So, who is the de facto or de jure regulator? Fuel dealers argued it was cheaper and more profitable to import fuel than to buy from Dangote. However, they eventually sealed a direct-purchase deal with DRL—but only after Dangote accused a neighboring company of blending or intending to blend low-quality fuel. Although Peter Mbah’s Pinnacle Oil denied the accusation, it sparked yet another controversy.

To complicate matters further, the MD of Atlantic Oil was arrested by the EFCC for diverting $35 million in oil funds. Which one is “oil found” again?

The tales became even more oiled when Dangote declared that he expected a fight but did not anticipate that the oil mafia was more vicious and ruthless than the drug mafia. Then, an anonymous analyst popped up to claim that Dangote does not own Dangote Refinery, asserting that the International Investment Bank Development Group (IIBDG) acquired a 70 percent stake in DRL for $19 billion on July 15, 2022. The same analyst claimed NNPC would sell its 7 percent stake in DRL for 12 percent to an unknown entity going forward.

You see why these tales are complicated, complex, and densely oiled? That is why I am stalking my certificates for anyone who can disentangle these oily tales in a common man’s language!