One of Nigeria’s poorest regions, the northeast, has been transformed by the conflict that has lasted for more than a decade. The region is now a shadow of its former self as conflict has led to the loss of lives and property, destruction of critical infrastructure, displacement of millions, and the destabilization of economic, health and education systems.
Insurgent violence and terrorism carried out by Boko Haram and Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) remain the major drivers of insecurity across north-eastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad region.
The effects of the insurgency and the persistence of insecurity are inseparable from the region’s pre-existing socio-economic deprivation and harsh environmental conditions, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
“The BAY states, Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, were not only some of the poorest states in the country prior to the conflict, but they also continue to bear the brunt of its effects,” said Mohamed Yahya, resident representative, UNDP, Nigeria.
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According to a recent report by the UNDP, years of attacks and destruction of the BAY states have led to immense humanitarian, human rights, and development crises, putting the lives of millions on the line.
The global development network of the UN assessed in the report the developmental impact that conflict has had, focusing on the most severely affected states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states.
Analysis of the report, “Assessing the impact of conflict on development in north-east Nigeria”, showed that conflict has directly resulted in the deaths of 35,000 people in the BAY states as a result of battle or one-sided violence since 2009.
“However, the full human cost of war is much greater. Already, many more have died from the indirect effects of the conflict,” the report said, estimating that through the end of 2020, the conflict resulted in nearly 350,000 deaths, with 314,000 of those from indirect causes.
Secondly, violence has been described as the primary cause of forced migration globally. Boko Haram attacks, according to the report by the UNDP, have led to massive internal displacement. More than 1.8 million Nigerians are displaced in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states, with the vast majority (nearly 1.5 million) located in Borno State.
In many cases, wars create more refugees (those who are forced to flee the country) than internally displaced people (IDPs), the report said.
Displaced persons in camps and host communities, IDPs often live in poor conditions and lack access to adequate food and services.
The third impact of conflict in the north-eastern part of Nigeria is the severe disruption of economic activity. Through the destruction of productive assets, diversion of resources, death and injury to the population and damage to health and education systems, the economies of the three states have been significantly affected by the persistent conflict in the region.
A World Bank assessment estimated cumulative GDP losses from 2011 to 2015 at $6.21 billion ($3.54 billion in Borno, $1.57 billion in Adamawa, and $1.1 billion in Yobe).
Already strained by inequality, low agricultural productivity, and high unemployment that was highest among the youth, conflict further damaged the economy of north-eastern Nigeria.
Agricultural production, the dominant economic sector in the region, has been severely cut. Buildings and transportation infrastructure have been destroyed, while road closures and military bans have impeded the movement and sale of certain goods, the UNDP report said.
Since conflict curbs economic growth, it often leads to heightened levels of poverty. That is the fourth impact the conflicts in the north-eastern part of Nigeria have had on the people living in the region.
Collier calculates that the reduction in economic growth after seven years of conflict lowers income by 15 percent and increases the poverty rate by 30 percent. The north-eastern part of Nigeria has persistently suffered from conflict since 2009.
As of 2019, the UNDP said 81 percent of people living in Yobe, 64 percent in Borno, and 60 percent in Adamawa suffered from multidimensional poverty, a measure that accounts for deprivation with respect to standards of living, health, and education.
“Boko Haram activity has been associated with an increase in the incidence, intensity, and severity of poverty in Nigeria.”
The fifth impact is on the region’s education sector. War often leads to the destruction and closure of schools, making it difficult or impossible for children to attend.
As families flee the war, displaced children often lack access to education. Even children who have not been displaced may stop attending school due to the risk of abduction, to help the household survive a shock, or due to fear of attack or violence when leaving the house.
“While some conflicts result in significant reductions in the population’s education, the evidence is broadly mixed, and education effects may be most visible at the local level even while national trends continue to improve,” the report said.
Way forward
Tackling the root cause of why some young Nigerians are joining terrorist groups is one of the key areas recommended by the UNDP in resolving the conflict challenges in the north-eastern part of Nigeria.
On other areas to pay urgent attention, the resident representative of UNDP in Nigeria pointed at “Stabilisation, securing the communities, creating livelihood, security and among others.”
