Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige was released last year from a life sentence for plotting to overthrow Ethiopia’s government — one of tens of thousands of political prisoners to be freed by prime minister Abiy Ahmed. Last weekend, the brigadier was named as the alleged ringleader of another coup, this one aimed at toppling the regional government in Amhara. By Monday, security forces had shot him dead.
Asaminew’s story encapsulates the high-wire act of Mr Abiy, who is attempting to turn one of Africa’s most authoritarian but effective states into a liberal democracy. The 42-year-old former army intelligence officer, the most exciting leader in Africa, may yet succeed. But this weekend’s events show the perils of his enterprise.
Clionadh Raleigh, an Ethiopia expert at the University of Sussex, wonders whether Mr Abiy has taken his liberal principles too far too quickly. “He is,” she says, “trying to move from a functioning autocracy to a competitive autocracy.”
Mr Abiy is trying to revamp the system created by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has ruled since a 1991 revolution. The four-party coalition has overseen one of the most remarkable transformations on the continent, conjuring years of near-double-digit growth from an economy once known principally for famine — but it did so at an authoritarian price.
Mr Abiy wants to preserve economic growth, but to ditch the EPRDF’s jackboots and spies. He also intends to liberalise the economy by loosening the state’s grip on its commanding heights.
Before he came along the EPRDF was dominated by Tigrayans, the ethnic group that led the 1991 revolution and makes up just 6 per cent of the population. That rule became unsustainable when the Oromo, the largest ethnic group, which has always felt marginalised, made common cause with the people of Amhara, Ethiopia’s traditional ruling class and the second-largest ethnic group.
The appointment of Mr Abiy, the first Oromo leader in Ethiopia’s history, acted as a safety valve. He took things further. He embraced the values of liberal democracy, freeing up the press, unbanning political parties (even ones with guns), releasing political prisoners and promising competitive elections in 2020. He made peace with Eritrea, ending two decades of smouldering hostilitiesLiberia
The result has been liberating. It has also been chaotic. Mr Abiy has unleashed a torrent of pent-up ultranationalism in which the rights of the country’s nine ethnically based regions threaten to supersede those of the unified Ethiopian state. Fighting has broken out. About 3m people have been displaced.
Brig Gen Asaminew waded into the mire. An Amhara nationalist, he whipped up anti-Tigrayan sentiment and even cast aspersions on Mr Abiy and his Oromo heritage. On Saturday, perhaps under threat of dismissal, he took things further. Amhara’s regional president was killed, allegedly under his orders. In a separate incident, which the government has also linked to the brigadier, the head of the national security apparatus was murdered in Addis Ababa, the federal capital.
Will Davidson of the Crisis Group concludes that elections in 2020 may no longer be feasible. “Unless the crisis is addressed, it is going to be hard to get the kind of political and security conditions necessary to proceed with the peaceful, constructive and competitive elections that Abiy has promised,” he says.
The Ethiopian prime minister may have concluded it is time to re-exert control. When he appeared on television on Sunday, he stuck to his liberal talking points. Perhaps tellingly, he was dressed not in his usual suit and tie but in military fatigues.
His words said the liberal experiment would continue. His choice of outfit said not to push him too far: he was still a military man.
