A number of international political economy analysts following developments in Nigeria, say they expect a massive broad-based overhaul and clean up of public institutions and processes in the country, should the main opposition political party, All Progressive Congress, candidate, Mohammadu Buhari, win next month’s presidential election.
Buhari and the APC have been campaigning strongly on the theme of change, and the analysts say a Buhari presidency is likely to quickly move to differentiate itself from the incumbent government by making immediate changes to define his government.
Analysts at DaMina Advisors, the New York based frontier markets specialists, believe that a Buhari government is likely to be keen to prove its credentials in tackling corruption by making sure it matches its campaign promise with action.
Buhari had said recently, while meeting with business leaders in Lagos that an APC victory would immediately send the appropriate signals to corrupt government officials and everyone with responsibility for managing public funds.
At the meeting, Buhari deliberately made efforts not to cause alarm, when he said, “Ok, if we win we will draw the line and from then on anyone offending will face the wrath of the law”, Buhari said as he tried to hint that his administration might not embark on widespread arrests and prosecution for corruption offences predating his government.
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But Damina Advisors, in an advisory note, said Buhari’s election promise to curb corruption in government would definitely involve launching “a swift forensic audit” of key government spending, including defence votes over the years, especially because of the outrage over the poor shape of the country’s military.
The APC presidential candidate is also campaigning on the theme of security but in the face of apparent failure to deal with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north east, the analysts believe Buhari will move to forensically examine what has gone wrong, especially after years of huge budgetary outlay to defence.
The analysts believe that the planned forensic audit will certainly rattle the country’s generals who have come under scathing criticisms lately, over the military’s poor showing in the battle with Boko Haram, the insurgency group which has taken over swaths of land in the northeast of Nigeria.
The analysts said while figures by the respected Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) put Nigeria’s defence votes over the past five years at $15bn, General Buhari says the actual figure could be much higher.
General Buhari is also expected to impose new processes at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, managers of the nation’s oil industry, about which the general showed considerable understanding at his meeting with business leaders in Lagos.
Last week, the independent national electoral commission (INEC) cited the grave insecurity situation in parts of the country as reason for postponing the date of the presidential election by six weeks and the commission’s chairman Attahiru Jega, specifically alluded to a letter from the military chiefs asking for time.
That election delay has met with strong criticism from a number of Nigerian groups as well as western nations.
By our reporter
