Fossil fuel emissions are set to peak globally by 2025 and gradually settle into a steady annual decline as industries clean up their carbon footprint, a new study has found.
Energy sector research firm Rystad Energy says fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to hit 39 gigatonnes per year (Gtpa) in 2025 based on new policies, industry trends and technological advancements.
Emissions hit a record high in 2022 as countries scrambled to secure reliable, affordable fuel for power generation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Many turned to more carbon-intensive fuels as a short-term solution to their energy security crises, reviving mothballed coal plants and prioritizing gas over cleaner alternatives, the report said. This is set to peak this year.
The decline will be minimal initially before gathering momentum in the coming years.
“Peak fossil fuel CO2 emissions within the next two years is an outstanding global achievement, exceptional when considering the current supply chain roadblocks and the high focus on energy security. If the industry can maintain this momentum, global warming of fewer than 2.0 degrees Celsius is within reach,” said Artem Abramov, head of cleantech research at Rystad Energy.
Fossil CO2 emissions reached an all-time high of about 38.3 Gtpa last year, raising eyebrows and questions about the world’s ability to deliver on ambitious climate goals to limit warming to between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius.
“However, our total emissions modeling points to an imminent emissions inflection point. Our data shows a peak of 39 Gtpa in 2025, but that timeline could move up to as early as next year if the short-term macroeconomic outlook accelerates the energy transition,” Rystad Energy said.
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Power and heating sector are expected to drive the upcoming fossil CO2 decline from mid-decade onwards. In 2023, the addition of renewable generation capacity is projected to outstrip the uptick in electricity demand.
It said, “From 2025, annual renewable generation additions will start materially affecting total fossil fuel output. This trend will also accompany continuous coal-to-gas switching (the persistent trend established several decades ago net of occasional short-term disruptions).
“Transportation and industrial emissions will peak later this decade but are also expected to join the decarbonization trend in the second half of the 2020s. At the same time, the first generation of large-scale commercial carbon capture initiatives will also start playing non-negligible roles, driven initially by projects in Europe and North America.”
Electric vehicle adoption, the report shows is approaching the levels needed to offset the annual global growth of the size of the active car fleet.
