Buhari: One year to go! (2)

In less than 365 days from today, the current President and Commander in Chief of the armed forces, Muhammadu Buhari, would have completed his eight years in office.

In other words, another elected Nigerian will be at the helms of affairs for the next four years or thereabouts. President Buhari came at a time Nigerians expected so much from him. But seven years down the line, what has Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency achieved? This will be answered through a mix of socio-economic indicators.

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a 3.11 percent real growth at the end of the first quarter of 2022. That growth was a moderation when compared with 3.40 percent real growth at the end of 2021.

In all, there have been 27 quarters since President Buhari was sworn in on May 29, 2015 and March 31, 2022. In between the periods, the Nigerian economy has undergone two economic recessions in 2016 and 2020.

We believe that it is still possible for President Buhari to turn a new page as he enters the home-stretch of his Presidency

On an annual basis, real GDP growth rate was 2.79 percent in 2015; -1.58 percent in 2016; 0.83 percent in 2017; 1.91 percent in 2018; 2.27 percent in 2019; -1.92 percent in 2020 and 3.40 percent in 2021. The best real GDP growth rate was the 5.10 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2021, basically due to the low base effect, while the worst GDP growth rate was -6.10 percent in the second quarter of 2020, which signalled the emergence of an economic recession.

As of 2015, the agriculture sector contributed 23.11 percent to the nation’s GDP. Industries contributed 23.71 percent while services contributed 53.18 percent to the GDP. Fast forward to 2021, the agriculture sector contributed 25.88 percent; industries contributed 20.56 percent while services contributed 53.56 percent. Agriculture received steady support in terms of monetary and fiscal incentives to small holder farmers and other stakeholders during this period.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the sector now contributes more to GDP than it was in 2015.

The downside is that contribution from the industries fell from 23.71 percent in 2015 to 20.56 percent in 2021. This may be due to the volatile exchange rate policy that made foreign raw materials more expensive to local manufacturers.

Prior to President Buhari’s administration, inflation rate in Nigeria averaged 9.91 percent. Specifically, in 2011, the average inflation rate was 10.85 percent; 12.24 percent in 2012; 8.52 percent in 2013; 8.06 percent in 2014, and between January and May 2015, Nigeria’s average inflation rate was 8.56 percent. But beginning from June 2015, the inflationary pressures started mounting such that between June and December 2015, the average inflation rate was 9.33 percent.

Inflation rate rose to 15.63 percent in 2016; 16.55 percent in 2017; declined to 12.15 percent in 2018; 11.39 percent in 2019; 13.21 percent in 2020; 16.98 percent in 2021, and from January to April 2022, the nation’s average inflation rate stood at 16.01 percent. This is one of the highest in the world.

The official exchange rate of the naira to the US dollar has been greatly affected, as it depreciated from an average of N192.62 to the US dollar in 2015 to N252.69/$ in 2016. It further depreciated to N305.29/$ in 2017; N305.58/$ in 2018; N306.42/$ in 2019; N356.43/$ in 2020; N399.14/$ in 2021, and to N415.43/$ in 2022. This implies that between 2015 and April 2022, the official exchange rate of the naira has depreciated by 53.6 percent. In more recent times, there is,even a worsening of this situation. This is in view of the fact that in this season of Primaries, what seems to be ‘legal and convenient tender’ is the dollar.

Predictably, the parallel market rates are equally disturbing. In the last few days, the naira-dollar exchange rate stood at about N600/$. When juxtaposed with the average official exchange rate of N415.43/$ in 2022, the naira at the parallel market provides an arbitrage opportunity of about N185.

Nigeria’s external reserves in 2015 when President Buhari was sworn in averaged N29.71 trillion. It rose to the peak of N41.3 trillion in 2021 before it moderated to N38.6 trillion currently, which means there is a 39.01 percent rise in external reserves in the last seven years.

Crude oil prices were on average $52.93 a barrel in 2015, and fell further to $43.64 a barrel in 2016; $54.41 a barrel in 2017; $72.05 a barrel in 2018; $65.49 a barrel in 2019, and $42.12 in 2020. Crude oil prices averaged $71.09 a barrel in 2021, and $106.13 a barrel between January and May 2022. The years with low crude oil price regimes have been compensated with high crude oil prices in the last one year.

Unemployment is still very high at about 33.3 percent of the entire labour force. It is much higher when the youth population is disaggregated.

On infrastructure, rail infrastructure upgrade is very dear to President Buhari. This can be seen in the number of rail infrastructures hitherto not functional which have now been revived. Examples include the Kaduna-Abuja rail network, and the Lagos-Ibadan rail network. A number of roads have also been completed by the current administration.

Read also: Buhari: One year to go! (1)

However, the growth in the economy is not inclusive. That is why the number of people living in poverty keeps increasing. This also explains why there is a ready army of uneducated youths, especially in the north, and others in south-east who are willing to be recruited by the Boko Haram insurgents, bandits and kidnapping rings, as well as Eastern Security Network in the south-east.

Persistent kidnappings which have produced orphans, widows and widowers in many Nigerian households due to the viciousness of the perpetrators are problems Nigerians never bargained for when they voted in this government year back. The rising inflation rate has reduced the purchasing power of many households.

What’s more, the protracted industrial actions by the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) and other unions in the tertiary education sector have made many Nigerians to be greatly dissatisfied with the President Buhari-led federal government.

However, it is instructive to appreciate that President Buhari has 11 more months to steer the economic ship of this country back to the right course. The current direction will lead nowhere. We believe that it is still possible for President Buhari to turn a new page as he enters the home-stretch of his Presidency.