Euro 2024: Spain vs Georgia predictions and stats

Georgia, the surprise package of Euro 2024, face a daunting task as they aim for one of the continent’s greatest upsets against Spain in the last-16.

La Roja strode through as Group B winners with a 100% record, while the Georgians secured a place in the knockout phase with a stunning defeat of Portugal. Now, the unlikely pair vie for a spot in the quarter-finals.

Winning all three group games at a European Championship for the first time since 2008 – the year their era of global supremacy began – Spain made 10 changes and still took maximum points from their final group match against Albania.

Spain ended their group campaign with a 1-0 victory over Albania, with Ferran Torres’ early strike securing the win. However, they will face a Georgia team brimming with self-belief after their maiden triumph at a major international tournament over Portugal last time out.

Willy Sagnol’s side have captured the hearts of football fans across the world but are aware of the enormity of the task ahead, having faced Spain in the qualifiers.

Luis de la Fuente’s Spain must approach with caution, as their recent record in the knockout stages of major tournaments has been far from impressive.

They were eliminated in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup and the 2022 World Cup, losing on penalties to Russia and Morocco, respectively. However, they did reach the semi-finals of Euro 2020, also losing on penalties to Italy.

Rejuvenated under De la Fuente, Spain are yet to concede a single goal. The last time a Spanish side kept four successive clean sheets at a major finals was back in 2012, when they last conquered Europe. Before lifting the Henri Delaunay trophy again, La Roja must improve on their showing at Qatar 2022, where they exited in the last 16 to Morocco. They have once again been pitted against in-form outsiders.

So far, Spain have won six of seven matches against Georgia in all competitions, including in qualifying for this summer’s finals. They won both fixtures by an aggregate margin of eight goals – 7-1 away and 3-1 at home.

Key Stats
This will be Spain’s eighth meeting with Georgia, but their first at a major tournament.

La Roja has won six of their seven matches against the minnows in all competitions, all of which have been since 2012.

Spain won both qualifying games by an aggregate score of 10-2 (7-1 away, 3-1 home), but the tournament version of Georgia could present a much sterner test.

Predictions
Spain are expected to win, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a dominant 75% chance of getting the job done in Cologne.

Georgia with a draw forecast slightly higher at 14.3%.

Spain are predicted to get through the tie in 82.1% of simulations, while Georgia upsets the odds to reach the quarter-finals in the remaining 17.9%.

La Roja are second favourites to go all the way and win Euro 2024, doing so in 17.2% of simulations.