England have been ruled out as favourites to win the Euro 2024 in Germany, according to an Opta supercomputer.
According to Opta’s prediction, Spain now lead with a 20.03 percent chance of winning the Euro 2024, based on their impressive performances. England follows closely with a 19.9 percent chance, and Germany is third at 19.22 per cent. Spain has scored nine goals in their four games and easily defeated Georgia in the last-16 to set up a quarter-final tie against the host nation, Germany.
One of these two teams will be eliminated in the quarter-final, significantly impacting the odds. If Spain are knocked out and England win their quarter-final match against Switzerland, Southgate’s men could regain their position as the top favourites. France ranks fourth with a 15.65 per cent chance after their win over Belgium.
Portugal holds an 8.8 per cent chance, the Netherlands 6.38 per cent, and Switzerland, England’s next opponent, is 5.01 per cent. Austria, Turkey, and Romania follow with 3.32 per cent, 1.16 per cent, and 0.52 percent chances, respectively.
The supercomputer also outlines each team’s likelihood of reaching various stages of the competition. England has a 44.92 percent chance of reaching the final, compared to Spain’s 30.95 per cent. This disparity is likely due to the draw, with England facing Switzerland and the Netherlands or Austria, while Spain may have to contend with Germany and France to reach the final.
Southgate’s team has a 66.81 percent chance of beating Switzerland on Saturday, while Spain is slightly favoured to beat Germany at 54.82 per cent. France has a 57.01 per cent chance of defeating Portugal to reach the last four, but only a 25.43 per cent chance of reaching the final. Portugal is given a 15.73 per cent chance of overcoming France and either Germany or Spain to reach the final, seeking to replicate their success from 2016.
