What Starmer’s election as UK prime minister could mean for Nigeria, Africa

…Analysts predict his migration policy, others

The United Kingdom’s opposition Labour Party won a landslide parliamentary majority in the recent country’s general election, unseating the incumbent Conservatives after 14 years in control.

While the Labour Party got 412 seats, the incumbent Conservatives got 121.

Keir Starmer, has since assumed office as Britain’s new Prime Minister.

The victory makes Starmer, the most powerful British leader since former Prime Minister Tony Blair, but he faces a number of challenges, including improving struggling public services, reviving a weak economy and remodelling the health system.

Read also: What Starmer’s election victory means for japa

Many Nigerians resident home and abroad anxiously followed the UK general election in the mainstream and social media.

Many of them who reside in the UK and had the right to vote, shared pictures of their active participation and even campaigned for their preferred candidates.

One of them said: “The election was peaceful, flawless, without rancour, violence, intimidation and desperation that often characterise elections in Nigeria.”

But since Starmer’s stunning victory and the return of the Labour Party in power, many Nigerians and indeed Africans have been asking what the party’s policies would be towards Africa and Nigeria?

Many Nigerians have been asking if the country would see the same stricter immigration policy of the Rishi Sunak Conservative Party, which many considered unfriendly.

It was obvious the former Prime Minister, Sunak was not popular among Nigerians and indeed, many people, especially with his bold move to reduce net migration to the UK.

Sunak’s controversial plan to fly thousands of asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda was opposed within the UK and across the world.

There was also strong criticism over his policy stopping Master’s degree students coming to study in the UK from bringing their dependants with them, among others.

But Starmer in a first major policy announcement scrapped the plan to fly thousands of asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda.

What Starmer’s victory could mean for Nigeria, Africa

Nigeria has long-standing historical and cultural ties with the UK, dating back to the colonial era; meaning that the outcome of the election is expected to have a major impact on its relations with the UK. In addition to Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and the Gambia all share colonial ties with the UK.

Some former UK’s Prime Ministers, like Tony Blair, still have considerable good will and popularity in Africa and Nigeria, due to the enormous attention, cooperation and priority they gave to the continent while they were in office.

But analysts’ opinions have been divided if indeed Anglophone countries and the continent as a whole would receive look-in from the Starmer’s administration.

Some analysts say it was obvious the manifesto of the Labour Party focused more on establishing ties with Europe; however, Africa may still benefit from his government.

Read also: UK new PM Starmer calls for urgent ceasefire in Israel- Palestine war, freedom of hostages

Temitope Musowo, Public affairs analyst and scholar, said starting from migration, Starmer being an immigration lawyer himself before his foray into politics, there was no certainty he would be tough on immigrants, especially, with Yvette Cooper as Home Secretary.

The analyst is of the view that no matter how liberal Starmer’s government may be with his immigration policy, the government will still prioritise domestic consideration above foreign interest. Therefore, foreign deportation scheme is not completely ruled out.

He further hinted that in terms of the economy, while there are no indications that foreign aid may increase under Starmer, considering UK’s challenging economy, the poor African countries will be given priorities above the middle -income African countries.

“Lisa Nandy, the Labour Party’s spokesperson on international development hinted this during the campaign. This means countries like Nigeria, Ghana, Mauritania, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire may not benefit much from Starmers’ government in terms of foreign aid,” Musowo said.

Gbemisola Adebowale, foreign affairs analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), said that the Labour Party’s election victory, which came despite low personal popularity ratings for its leader, can be interpreted as more of an anti-government vote and less of a public vote supporting the party’s vision, stressing that this might make it difficult to determine the extent of support that Labour might have for its more radical policies.

She stated that West Africa can and should negotiate from a position of strength, noting that the increasing proliferation of Africa+1 summits means that the UK will recognise that there is a different calculus for engaging with the continent.

The analyst stressed that in negotiating for trade and aid, there needs to be a clear demand for what is needed and how best to support the region.

“This will help in ensuring a pragmatic approach to communicating positions in the early days. Finally, the region should be clear in dealing with the UK collectively, especially in terms of its foreign policy objectives.

“It will be a fellow member of the G20 and will, in Sierra Leone, have a fellow member of the UN Security Council. These avenues should provide a chance to negotiate a structured approach to ensuring African voices in international relations,” the analyst said.

Not much may change on migration policy

With migration to the UK at its peak among Nigerians especially the youth in the last one decade, perhaps, Starmer’s and the Labour Party’s migration policy would be the most eagerly awaited.

Many people are expecting him to take a second look or a soft stand against Sunak’s stricter immigration policy aimed at reducing net migration to the UK.

In 2022, Nigeria had the highest number of migrants to the UK and became the third largest nationality group in the country, a report published by the UK Home Office had revealed.

Nigerian nationals saw the largest relative increase in sponsored study grants compared with 2019, increasing by 57,545, which represents a 686 per cent increase, to a record high of 65,929 migrants.

Sylvester Odion Akhaine, professor of Political Science and expert on International Affairs, warned that there may not be much of a shift in the migration policy of the Labour Party government from the Conservative.

He said that he expected the interest of the UK to be the priority of the new administration, rather than Africa or Nigeria, noting that the UK had its immediate challenges which the Starmer administration may want to tackle before looking to solve problems outside.

“I am not sure the policy on migration is European. Starmer would not deport to Rwanda, Britain is colonised by the erstwhile colonized; can they reverse the trend? No,” the lecturer said in a chat with BusinessDay Sunday.

Similarly, Adebowale pointed out that recent Labour governments have been more active in ensuring a more activist role for the UK in international affairs, saying that this is not the same Labour of previous years and it is not yet clear if there is a clear plan in place on how to engage with a region that provides a considerable number of immigrants and also remains a major focal point of its presence on the continent.

“It is also dealing with the rise of a Reform Party that campaigned on fairly right-wing policy and will have to act swiftly to alleviate concerns that led to this.

“If West African leaders are able to work together and approach this effectively, then they can leverage this relationship for their own benefit, at least, for the next five years,” she added.

However, many analysts say the rise in migration to the UK and other western countries has hurt the continent more and led to brain drain, which is why technological advancement should be at the forefront in African nations in order to have the resources and capabilities to call back the sons of the soil from around the globe.

Maxwell Adeyemi, UK-based communication strategist, said the continent’s path to development is clear, lies within its borders, emphasising that “we need to focus on our strengths, encourage innovation, and reverse the brain drain.”

He pointed out that the history of British exploitation should serve as a reminder that “our true potential will only be realised through self-determination and the effective utilisation of our resources.”