As the 2019 general election wind blows across the Nigerian socio-political firmament, it is also becoming clearer that the contest is between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and like in geography, the two constitute the Latitude and Longitude of the present Nigerian geopolitics.
In 2015, the newly co-joined opposition APC defeated PDP which had ruled for 16 years with 15, 424, 921(15.4 million) votes against 12, 853, 162(12.4 million) for the Presidential election.
State by state performance of the APC and PDP in 2015 for the Presidential election showed that in Abia, APC got 13, 394, PDP: 368, 303; Adamawa, APC: 374, 701, PDP: 251, 664; Akwa Ibom, APC: 58, 411, PDP: 953, 304; Anambra, APC: 17, 926, PDP: 660, 762; Bauchi, APC: 931, 598, PDP:86, 085;Bayelsa, APC: 5,194, PDP: 361, 209;Benue, APC: 373, 961, PDP: 303, 737; Borno, APC: 473, 543, PDP: 25,640 and Cross River, APC: 28, 368, PDP: 414, 863.Delta, APC: 48,910, PDP: 1,211,405;Ebonyi, APC: 19,518, PDP: 323,653; Edo, APC: 208, 469, PDP: 286, 869; Ekiti, APC: 120,331, PDP: 176,466; Enugu, APC: 14, 157, PDP: 559, 185; Gombe, APC: 361, 245, PDP: 96, 873; Imo, APC: 133, 253, PDP: 559, 185; Jigawa, APC: 885, 988, PDP: 142, 904; Kaduna, APC: 1, 127, 760, PDP: 484, 085; Kano, APC: 1, 903, 99, PDP: 215, 779; Katsina, APC: 1, 345, 44, PDP: 98, 937; Kebbi, APC: 567, PDP: 100, 972; Kogi, APC: 264, 851, PDP: 149, 987 and Kwara, APC: 302, 146, PDP: 132, 602.
Lagos, APC: 792, 46, PDP: 632, 321; Nasarawa, APC: 236, 838, PDP: 273, 460; Niger, APC: 657, 678, PDP: 149, 222; Ogun, APC: 302, 146, PDP: 207, 950; Ondo, APC: 299, 889, PDP: 251, 368; Osun, APC: 299, 889, PDP: 249, 929; Oyo, APC: 657, 678, PDP: 303, 549, 615; Plateau, APC: 308, 290, PDP: 549, 615; Rivers, APC: 299, 889, PDP: 487, 075; Sokoto, APC: 671, 926, PDP: 152, 199; Taraba, APC: 261, 326, PDP: 310, 800; Yobe, APC: 446, 265, PDP: 25, 526; Zamfara, APC: 612, 202, PDP: 144, 833and FCT, APC: 146, 399, PDP: 157, 195.
APC accordingly won 20 out of the 37 States leaving PDP with 17 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in the 2015 National elections.
However, in the build up to the 2019 general election, there are strong indications that the reverse will be the case, as PDP appears to be in a dramatic twist to bounce back to power at the centre or take back what APC had taken from it after 16 years of firm grip on the Nigeria political superstructure.
Through qualitative methods of investigation such as observation, ethnography and historical approach, BDSUNDAY found that the geography of 2019 general election will be altered with PDP winning some states won by APC in 2015 and APC retaining a good number of states won previously with little possibility of winning new states.
Results of the state by state analysis indicated that in:Abia State
Abia is a South Eastern Nigerian state which has been under the control of PDP since the advent of the nascent democracy in 1999. In the 2015 general election, PDP won the state landslide, leaving APC and some parties with few votes and PDP is still on the winning side in the state as the incumbent PDP Governor, Okezie Ikpeazu has firm grip of the state politics and is working seriously to realise his second term bid and deliver the state to his party in the national elections with few opposition (APC) led by the former governor Orji Kalu to face.
Adamawa State
Adamawa is a North Eastern Nigerian State that has been mostly ruled by PDP from 1999 until in the 2015 general election when APC won both the state and national elections there with a difference not too wide. Adamawa is indeed a battle ground for APC and PDP in the 2019 general election because it is currently an APC-controlled state led by Governor Bindow Jibrilla and it is the home state of Aisha Buhari, wife of the President as well as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of PDP. Historical facts indicated that Atiku calls the shots in the politics of Adamawa at least, from 1999 to date and apart from Murtala Nyako, he has installed all governors in the state within this period, including Jibrilla.
At present, there is obviously no political force to reckon with the Waziri Adamawa in his state; rather, the crisis that precipitated APC primaries in Adamawa is a plus to his party and Atiku with a well-known political warchest will certainly stop at nothing to first and foremost win his state in the 2019 general election. Thus, Adamawa is expected to fall for PDP, at least, in the Presidential election of 2019.
Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom is a state in the South-South geo-political zone that has been under PDP control since 1999 and PDP won the 2015 elections there round and square and is still much on ground to record another victory in 2019 general election. APC hitherto had no visible presence in Akwa State with Udo Udoma, minister of Budget and National Planning until the entrance of former governor Godswill Akpabio, who analysts said cannot deliver the state to APC, but can only succeed being re-elected to the Senate.
Anambra State
Anambara is a South-Eastern Nigeria state with spectacular political calculus as PDP recorded landslide victory there against APC with minimal votes when actually the state was governed by All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) led by Governor Willy Obiano. Also, between 1999 and to date, PDP produced two governors; Chinwoke Mbadinuju and Chris Ngige while APGA also produced two; Peter Obi and Willy Obiano but during this period, PDP has always won the Presidency.
For the 2019 general election too, PDP is likely going to repeat the same feat, for the Presidential election more so that Peter Obi, a former governor of the state is the running mate to the PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. This is in addition to the fact that APC has poor representation in the state with the Minister of Labour, Ngige, as its main pillar.
Bauchi State
Bauchi is the political and regional headquarters of North Eastern Nigeria which has been ruled by three different political parties between 1999 andnow. The state has been accordingly governed by Adamu Muazu of PDP, Isa Yuguda of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANNP) and later PDP and the Mohammed Abubakar of the APC. Though APC got overwhelming votes and won both national and state elections in Bauchi in 2015, the likelihood of winning in 2019 is not there as the party is more of a fractured Eagle as far as Bauchi is concerned.
This is as the forces of Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, Senator Isa Missau, among others that propelled APC victory are no longer in the party. Also, PDP has regrouped in the state while APC is in disarray following the skirmishes that characterised its primaries leaving most stakeholders embittered and with lukewarm attitude towards working for the party. Again, the contest between APC Governor Abubakar and PDP Senator Bala Mohammed, former Minister of FCT, is fierce but to the advantage of the PDP.
Bayelsa State
The oil-rich Niger Delta (South South) State has politically been under the control of PDP since 1999 and PDP won landslide in the state during the 2015 general election. Bayelsa is the home state of former President Goodluck Jonathan who is much at home with his people and his combination with Governor Sierake Dickson is too strong for the APC led by former Governor Timpreye Sylva to contend with. Thus, PDP is in the vantage position to win Bayelsa in the 2019 general election.
Benue State
Benue is a North-Central Nigerian State that remained under the control of PDP since the return to civil rule in 1999 until it was caught in the wind of change in 2015 and APC took over the state but with a few votes difference from the PDP. Ordinarily, Benue since the Second Republic has always shunned opposition politics based on the advice of its famous political leader and renowned Nationalist, the late Senator JS Tarka, founder of the defunct United Middle Belt Forum (UMBC), but recent developments have changed this disposition. For the National or Presidential election, Benue will naturally go for the PDP, first, because of the dwindling popularity of President Buhari-led APC which the people nicknamed, Miyelti Allah Party due to the persistent killings in the state by the suspected Fulani herdsmen and the perceived lackadaisical approach to the insecurity by the APC-led Federal Government.
On the political landscape also, PDP currently has upper hand than APC as Governor Samuel Ortom who was first elected on APC platform abandoned the party months ago and has secured PDP governorship ticket and is now working hand-in-glove with former Governor Gabriel Suswam, former Senate President, David Mark, another former Senate President and three-time Minister, Iyorchia Ayu, former Minister of Interior, Abba Morro, former Speaker Pro-tempore, House of Representatives, Terngu Tsegba, among others to deliver Benue to PDP while former Governor George Akume and few others are battling to sell Buahri/APC.
Also, the PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar is politically deep-rooted in Benue with trusted allies even in the APC and he holds the honorific Chieftaincy Title of the Zege Mule U Tiv(Great Shield of the Tiv Nation) which is favouring him politically. Tivs are the dominant ethnic group in Benue State and the fourth largest ethnicity in Nigeria, occupying 14 out of the 23 Local government areas of Benue State. The remaining Idoma and Igede ethnic groups who made up the reaming nine local government areas in the state known as Benue South Zone are mainly PDP supporters under the firm grip of David Mark, who decides who gets what, when and how in the zone.
Borno State
Borno is a foremost North Eastern Nigerian state which has been ruled by the defunct ANPP, one of the parties that dissolved into APC from 1999 to date. APC got overwhelming victory in Borno State in the 2015 general election and the party is expected to repeat the feat again in 2019 general election. Obviously, Borno is an APC state with little or no contestation from PDP or another political party. Governor Kashim Shettima of the APC has maintained firm grip of the state and is supported by the Chief of Staff to the President, Abba Kyari while the former governor and former factional National Chairman of PDP, Ali Modu Sheriff has since rejoined APC. Historical facts have revealed that, President Buhari has always won Borno State since 2003 that he started contesting for President. Another valid point is that, Buhari was the Military Governor of the old North-Eastern States with headquarters in the present Borno State and is therefore, politically deep-rooted there.
Cross River State
Cross River is a South-South state in Nigeria in which PDP has maintained firm grip of since 1999. Landslide victory was recorded by PDP in Cross River during the 2015 general election and the party is still in a good stead to repeat the feat. This is because despite the in-roads made by APC in Cross River after the general election with the appointment of Usani Usani Uguru as Minister, entrance of PDP Chieftains such as, former Governor Clement Ebiri, Edem Duke are unmatched to the sagacity of Governor Ben Ayade of PDP and former Governor Liyel Imoke who are firmly in charge of the state politics. Also, the parallel APC primaries in the state which produced two governorship candidates, John Enoh and Usani Uguru, has further decimated APC in Cross River.
Delta State
Delta is another South-South state where PDP has remained politically in charge since the advent of the nascent democracy. The party overwhelmingly won the 2015 general election in Delta, scoring over one million votes. The 2019 general election promises to be another hay day for PDP as APC, despite certain claims cannot dislodge the PDPled by the intellectually endowed Governor Ifeanyi Okowa and supported by James Ibori among other supposedly owners of Delta. The defection of the likes of former governor Emmanuel Uduaghan to APC; the emergence of Senator Amo Agege in APC according to analysts, have not altered the fortunes of PDP, especially as APC held parallel primaries that produced two governorship candidates, Pat Utomi and Great Ogboru and the party picked Ogboru to angst of Utomi, thereby weakening APC ahead of the general election.
Ebonyi State
Ebonyi is South Eastern Nigerian state which can be politically characterised as a PDP state. This is as PDP ruled the state from 1999 to date and in 2015, PDP got the highest number of vote cast in the state while APC got just a fraction. The same performance is expected to be staged by PDP in the 2019 general election as Governor David Umahi has evidently kept the state intact for PDP while APC led by the Minister of Science and Technology continues to wane as could be inferred from the recent defection of its 1000 members to the PDP.
Edo State
Edo is a South-South state ruled both by PDP and ACN and later APC. With the advent of civil rule in 1999, the state was governed by Lucky Igbenedion of PDP and briefly by Oserheimen Osunbor also of the PDP, Adams Oshiomhole of ACN/APC and is currently being governed by Godwin Obaseki of APC. In the 2015 general election, APC recorded an impressive performance in Edo, but was slightly defeated by PDP at the Presidential election.
For the 2019 general election, one would have expected APC to take over Edo completely with Oshiomhole as the National Chairman of APC, John Odigie-Oyegun, former APC National Chairman and former Governor Osunbor, but the recent travails of the Oshiomhole and the battle for political supremacy with his successor, Obaseki over the justprimaries placed PDP at the vantage position of winning Edo again with the firm support of the Igbenedion dynasty. But nothing is sacrosanct here.
Ekiti State
Ekiti is a South Western Nigerian state which has been governed by the defunct Alliance for Democracy(AD), PDP, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and APC back and forth. With the return to civil rule in 1999, AD first governed Ekiti (Otunba Niyi Adebayo), followed by Ayodele Fayose of PDP and Kayode Fayemi of ACN/ APC with several Acting governors and Administrators from PDP. Fayose and Kayode ruled the state at different intervals.
Though APC recorded good number of votes during the 2015 general election, PDP won the Presidential election. As a usual battle ground for PDP and APC the general election in Ekiti for 2019 promises to be dramatic with PDP having an edge over APC as it is believed there will be no concentration of Federal might as was witnessed in the July 14 governorship election that APC won and PDP could repeat the same feat with Fayose. But it all depends on what Fayemi does between now and the election to tangibly impress the people.
Enugu State
Enugu is the political and regional headquarters of South East Nigeria which can be best described as a PDP state as the party remained in control of Enugu since 1999. Also, in 2015, PDP defeated APC with a wide margin and would do same in 2019. This is because PDP has remained on ground after the last general election and even the entrance of former Senate President, Ken Nnamani, former governor Jim Nwobo and others into APC does not make the party a match for the PDP led by the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu and Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi.
Gombe State
Gombe is a North Eastern state that was ruled from 1999 – 2003 by the defunct ANPP with Abubakar Hashidu as governor and PDP took over in 2003 with former Governor Danjuma Goje(2003 – 2011) and Ibrahim Dankwambo(2011 – date). APC won landslide in Gombe during the 2015 general elections while Governor Dankwambo was re-elected as governor.
It is going to be difficult for APC to repeat the same feat in Gombe in 2019 general election as the outgoing governor who wields enormous political influence now than his predecessor, Goje, is leaving no stone unturned to deliver the state to his party the PDP, especially as APC is still bickering over its primaries. Also, Gombe shares a lot in common with Adamawa and Bauchi States politically and shall steer the same coast with them in 2019.
Imo State
Imo is a foremost South Eastern Nigerian state which has been under the control of PDP, APGA and APC. In 2105, PDP defeated APC in the Presidential election but the then first term Governor, Rochas Okorocha was re-elected on the platform of the APC along with majority of the members of Imo State House of Assembly and some National Assembly members. Ideally, APC would have had a better chance to win national and state elections in Imo which is the only South East state with heavy APC presence, but current developments have shown that the party is a divided house unlike the PDP with a more united house. The political battle royale between Okorocha group and Hope Uzodinma group has thrown APC in a shambles to the extent that both Uzodinma and Uche Nwosu, Okoroch’s son-in-law, are laying claims to the ticket even as the former’s name was finally published by INEC as the Imo APC Governorship Candidate. Consequently, PDP is more predisposed to win the state in 2019.
Jigawa State
Jigawa is a state in the North West geopolitical zone of Nigeria which has been ruled by the defunct APP/ANPP, PDP and now APC since the return to civil rule in 1999. Ibrahim Turaki of APP/ANPP governed the state between 1999 and 2007 and Sule Lamido of the PDP took charge from 2007 – 2015 while Abubakar Badaru of APC has been governor from 2015 to date. In the 2015 general election, APC took over the state as President Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP with a wide margin.
Also in the 2019 general election, Buhari/APC is likely to win Jigawa again as Governor Badaru since inception has maintained firm grip of the political baton of the state more so that, it is a North Western state where Buhari has home advantage. This is just as the main APC challenger in Jigawa, former Governor Lamido who also contested for PDP Presidential ticket but lost to Atiku is said to be reluctant to work vigorously for his party’s Presidential candidate as he felt sidelined. According to sources close to Lamido, he is not happy with the turn of events after PDP Presidential primary election. They cited the instance where Lamido was not invited to the strategic meeting of the PDP top brass with Atiku in Dubai and has not been briefed even after the meeting despite his high-standing in the party. This could be a minus for the PDP and a plus for APC in 2019.
Kaduna State
Kaduna is the administrative and political headquarters of the North West geopolitical zone and the centre of the entire North. With the advent of the nascent democracy in 1999, Kaduna has been predominantly controlled by PDP except in 2015. Between 1999 – 2007, Ahmed Makarfi was Kaduna State governor on the platform of the PDP. He was succeeded by Namadi Sambo also of the PDP who later became Vice President in 2010 and his Deputy, the late Patrick Yakowa succeeded him and was re-elected in 2015 and when Yakowa died in 2012, his Deputy Mukhtar Yero continued in PDP but was defeated by Nasir el-Rufai of APC in 2015.
During the 2015 polls, APC won Kaduna State with votes more than twice of the votes PDP got. However, APC may not repeat the same feat in this highly cosmopolitan state due to certain events ahead of the general election. Politically, APC is decimated with only Governor el-Rufai as the main force as the likes of the popular Senator Shehu Sani and Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi have since dumped APC. While Hunkuyi has rejoined PDP, Sani has joined People’s Redemption Party to pursue his re-election but with a perceived sympathy for the PDP Presidential candidate.
Also, PDP has regrouped under the leadership of former Governor Makarfi alongside former Vice President Sambo, Governor Yero, Senator Leah Danjuma, among others. The recent decision of el-Rufai to break the long-standing political tradition in the state by picking a Muslim, Hadiza Balarabe, as his running mate is another huge political blow for APC. Kaduna State is unevenly divided along Christianity and Islamic religions and this underpins politics in the state.
More so, killings in Southern Kaduna by suspected Fulani herdsmen has escalated under the APC administration, making the people to be naturally not disposed to voting APC again. The recent killings in a Kaduna market under the watch of APC government is another serious political drawback for the APC in Kaduna.
Kano State
Kano is a foremost North Western Nigerian state which has highest number of votes in each national election since 1999. Within this period, Kano has been ruled by PDP, ANPP and APC. At the return of the present dispensation, PDP controlled Kano by the then Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso between 1999 and 2003; ANNP took over with Ibrahim Shekerau from 2003 – 2011, PDP bounced back with Kwankwaso in 2011 who defected to APC in 2014 and handed over to Umar Ganduje of APC from 2015 to date. In the last national elections, APC recorded unprecedented victory in Kano with over a million votes while PDP lagged behind with over two hundred thousand votes. Kano has always been Buhari/APC state since he started contesting in 2003 via ANPP, CPC and APC – a combination of these parties.
But for the 2019, Kano is going to be a battle ground for Buhari/APC and Atiku/PDP. This is because the contemporary political magnet of Kano, Kwankwaso has dumped the APC for PDP and after unsuccessful attempt at the PDP Presidential ticket, he is the Atiku/PDP North West Campaign Coordinator. The former Kano Governor according to analysts has through his Kwankwasiya Movement become politically popular and influential in the entire North West and beyond and his association with PDP indicates victory for the party.
Also, the recent dollar bribery scandal surrounding Governor Ganduje, the APC Field Commander in Kano, with threats of impeachment from the State Assembly is risky for APC success in Kano. The APC wing Commanders in Kano, namely Senator Kabiru Gaya and Shekerau, all former governors are not without political deficits as stakeholders and supporters are not happy with their emergence as Senatorial candidates.
Katsina State
Katsina is another popular North Western state under PDP rule since 1999 except in 2015 when APC took over with Governor Aminu Masari taking charge. Before then, the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of PDP who later became President governed the state between 1999 and 2007 while Ibrahim Shema took over from 2007 – 2015.
APC won Katsina landslide in 2015 with over a million votes while PDP scored less than hundred thousand votes. Katsina is a Buhari/APC domain even in the 2019 general election as it is the President’s home state with only former Governor Shema of the PDP to contend with. History has shown that since 2003, except in 2007 when Buhari contested with the late Yar’ Adua, also an indigene of the state, he has always won the election there.
Kebbi State
This is also a North-Weststate that has been led by APP/ANPP, PDP and APC since 1999. In 1999, Adamu Aliero of the APP and later ANPP governed the state until he joined PDP in 2006. Usman Dankingari took over on the platform of PDP between 2007 and 2015 while Atiku Bagudu of APC came on board from 2015 to date.
APC scored majority of votes in Kebbi during the 2015 elections and is conditioned to win again in 2019 as the party under the leadership of Governor Bagudu has maintained firm grip of the state; keeping all the former governors, members of the National Assembly as well as political gladiators intact in the party with few opposition elements.
Kogi State
Kogi is a North Central state that has been ruled by APP/ANPP, PDP and APC from 1999 to date. Late Abubakar Audu of ANPP governed Kogi from 1999 -2003; Idris Abubakar of PDP took over between 2003 -2012 and Idris Wada, also of PDP governed from 2012 – 2016 while Yahaya Bello took charge from 2016 – date.
In the 2015 general elections, APC won Kogi State with scores slightly above PDP. However, the ruling party may not record such huge victory in the state at the 2019 polls. This is because, the failure of the then Governor Wada to pay workers’ salaries cost PDP the state and the incumbent Governor Yahaya Bello administration according to reports has been worst in payment of salaries which could equally cost APC the state. Also, Governor Bello’s political battles which pushed the likes of Dino Melaye out of APC is a huge minus for the party.
Kwara State
Kwara is another North Central state that has been under PDP rule from 1999 until the political sojourn of the Leader of Kwara politics, Bukola Saraki alongside Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed into APC in 2014. Consequently, APC won national elections in Kwara during the 2015 polls but recent political developments proved that the party could not be victorious in Kwara. This is as Saraki, President of the Senate and Governor Ahmed who facilitated APC victory in the state, have returned to PDP and as the Director General of PDP Presidential Campaign, Saraki will stop at nothing to deliver his state to his party, the PDP.
Lagos State
Lagos, the former capital of Nigeria is the administrative headquarters of South West Geopolitical Zone. Lagos from 1999 to date has been under the control of the defunct Alliance for Democracy which metamorphosed into the defunct ACN, part of which became APC. In the 2015, APC won the Presidential election with over a hundred thousand votes above PDP.
Lagos is a highly cosmopolitan state without a routine voting pattern, this makes the possibility of APC repeating its electoral victory difficult. For instance, PDP Presidential Candidate, Jonathan won the state in 2011 over the ACN Candidate, Nuhu Ribadu even when ACN was in firm control of Lagos. Thus, for the 2019 general election, APC may lose Lagos considering the dwindling political sagacity of Bola Tinubu, the National Leader of APC. The snatching of the party’s governorship ticket from Akinwunmi Ambode who is popular among the people is capable of working against the fortunes of APC in the state.
Nasarawa State
Nasarawa is another North Central state that remained a PDP state as far back as 1999 but in 2011, Tanko Almakura of the defunct CPC took over as the governor and was re-elected in 2015 on the platform of APC which his formerparty collapsed into. APC made an impressive performance in Nasarawa during the 2015 Presidential election but was defeated by the then ruling PDP. With the 2019 general election around the corner, it is apparent that PDP will capture the state as APC is not united with the political bickering between Governor Almakura and Senator Abdullahi Adamu over the party’s governorship candidate, Abdullhai Sule. Also, the allegation that the Governorship Candidate is an indigene of Kano and only a settler in Nasarawa has compounded issues for APC in Nasarawa to the advantage of PDP, just as the current Governor’s Senatorial ambition is receiving stiff opposition from dominant ethnicities in the Southern part of the state.
Niger State
This North Central State has also been under PDP from 1999 with Abdulkadir Kure(1999 – 2007) and Babangida Aliyu( 2007 – 2015) until 2015 when Governor Abubakar Bello of APC changed the history. APC equally defeated PDP during the last Presidential election in Niger. However, APC seems not to be on the winning side as the 2019 national election draws closer following the crisis that engulfed the party during primaries. It is an incontrovertible fact that Buhari/APC won Niger with the support of former Military President Ibrahim Babangida and former Head of State, Abdulsalam Abubakar, the owners of Niger but recent political realities have shown that Buhari and his party no longer enjoy the support of the Generals.
Ogun State
Ogun is a South Western Nigerian state ruled by AD, PDP and ACN/APC since the return to civil rule in 1999. Within this period, Ogun has been governed by Olusegun Osoba of AD (1999 – 2003), Gbenga Daniel of PDP (2003 – 2011) and Ibikunle Amosun of ACN – APC (2011 – date). APC won Ogun State in the 2015 general election though with a slim margin.
But APC seems not to be in the form to get another victory in Ogun in the 2019 general election because the party has been thrown into serious crisis in the state after the primary elections with Governor Amosun highly aggrieved while there are permutations of him dumping the party before elections. Also, APC victory in Ogun was propelled by the support of former President Olusegun Obasanjo to the party’s Presidential Candidate, Buhari and this support has since been withdrawn.
Ondo State
Ondo is another South-Westernstate that was won by APC in 2015 Presidential election even with a sitting PDP Governor, Olusegun Mimiko. However, there are strong indications that APC will not repeat its victory in the state even as the party has a sitting Governor, Rotimi Akerodolu now. This is as people of the state are said not to be happy with the APC-led government both at the Federal and State levels for the failure to fulfilcampaign promises.
The crisis between Governor Akeredolu and the Ondo State House of Assembly and his perceived disagreement with the APC National leadership with rumours that he would not get the party’s ticket to seek re-election may have weakened APC in Ondo ahead of the general election. There are also permutations that former Governor Mimiko, who is now a senatorial candidate on the Zenith Labour Party platform will eventually join forces with PDP at the presidential election.
Osun State
Osun is also a South-Western state in Nigeria that has been controlled by the defunct AD, PDP and ACN/APC since 1999 with Adebisi Akande of AD, Olagunsoye Oyinlola of PDP and Rauf Aregbesola of ACN/ APC as governors, respectively. Like most states in South West, APC won the 2015 Presidential election in Osun with a wide margin but in the build-up to the 2019 elections, there are indications that APC may not repeat the same feat because of the inroads made in the state by PDP. For instance, PDP Candidate, won a Senatorial by-election in Osun and was winning the recent governorship election when INEC, in what critics described as “controversial” declared the election inconclusive.
Political pundits are of the opinion that if INEC had not declared the election inconclusive, PDP ould have dislodged APC in Osun. For the general election, the ruling APC will not concentrate efforts in Osun as it was done in the governorship election where more than 10 APC governors, ministers, National Assembly members and other stakeholders moved to the state to ensure victory for their party, and PDP will have breathing space to perform better. Also, the issue of nonpayment of salary in Osun has not been resolved and there is no possibility to clear the backlog of arrears before the February general election. This would certainly count against APC;and anything is possible.
Oyo State
Oyo is another South-Westernstate won by APC during the 2015 general election. Since the return to civil rule in 1999, Oyo has been controlled once by AD, twice by PDP and twice by ACN/APC. APC through Governor Abiola Ajimobi has maintained firm grip of Oyo State, making the state to be a favourable ground for APC in the 2019 general election as the dissenting voices such as that of the Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu,who was disqualified from contesting the party’s governorship ticket over NYSC Certificate issue are not strong enough to work against APC as he is still a Minister in the APC government.
Plateau State
Plateau is the foremost North Central State controlled largely by PDP since the return to democratic governance in 1999 with Joshua Dariye and David Jang as governors up to 2015 when Simon Lalung of APC became governor. Even at that, PDP won the Presidential election in Plateau State with two hundred thousand difference against APC.
Ahead of the 2019 general election, there are strong indications that PDP would win Plateau again in the Presidential election as the killings in the state have exacerbated during the APC era with the governor being accused of not crying out loud enough to the Federal Government and putting measures in place to checkmate the activities of the suspected Fulani herdsmen as done by his Benue counterpart, Ortom, for his political interest. Politically, PDP has regrouped in Plateau under former Governor Jang and General Jeremiah Useni, forces that would be difficult for Lalung to decimate.
Rivers State
Rivers is a South-South State that has been under the control of PDP since 1999 and the party recorded overwhelming victory over APC in 2015 even as the then Governor, Rotimi Amechi was the Director-General of the APC Presidential Candidate, Muhammadu Buhari. APC does not have any ground in Rivers State in the 2019 general election also as Governor Nyesome Wike has maintained firm grip of the state while the APC Leader there, Amaechi, has through insisting on his associate, Tonye Cole to be APC governorship candidate, further weakened the party in Rivers as majority of party members are sympathetic to Senator Magnus Abe who also contested for the governorship ticket but was kicked out by Amaechi. There is also insinuation that Abe would rejoin PDP close to the elections, and when this happens, it may prove very detrimental to the APC.
Sokoto State
Sokoto is a North-Westernstate ruled by the defunct APP/ANPP with Attahiru Bafarawa as Governor from 1999 – 2007, Aliyu Wammako (2007 – 2015) and Aminu Tambuwal (2015 to date). APC defeated PDP landslide in Sokoto during the 2015 general election. However, APC may not be fortunate to win Sokoto again in the 2019 general election as the former Governor, Senator Wammako of APC alone cannot successfully lead the political war against the incumbent Governor Tambuwal, who came second in the PDP Presidential Primary election and Bafarawa who also had an impressive performance during the PDP Presidential primary election. Also, the continuous detention of the former National Security Adviser, Sambo Dasuki without bail even with several court orders, would count against APC in Sokoto during the 2019 elections.
Taraba State
Taraba is a North-Easternstate that could be politically described as a PDP state from 1999 to date. As such, PDP won the 2015 Presidential, Governorship and Majority of State and National House of Assembly elections in Taraba State. The political handwriting is crystal clear that APC will still have bad market in Taraba in the 2019 general election as PDP is obviously in charge, more so that, the live wire of APC in the state, Aisha Jumai Alhassan, has since dumped the party after being unjustly screened out of the governorship primary election. Also, the killings of farmers in Taraba by suspected Fulani herdsmen is another threat to APC success in Taraba as the party is mostly associated with the Hausa-Fulani hegemonic North while the effect of Atiku in the state portends danger for the broom party.
Yobe State
This North-Easternstate is undoubtedly an APC State as it has been under the control of APP/ANPP since the return to civil rule in 1999. The ANPP fused into the present APC and has continued to be under the party.Since 1999, the state has been under the leadership of three governors at different times, Bukar Abba, Mamman Ali and Ibrahim Gaidam. As expected, APC accordingly won the 2015 general election in Yobe and would repeat the same feat in the state in the 2019 general election as PDP candidly has little or no strong presence there to neutralise the forces of the present Governor, Gaidam, Senator Abba and Mai Mala Buni, APC National Secretary and the party’s governorship candidate.
Zamfara State
Zamfara is a North-Westernstate that could be conveniently termed an APC state hence, its first civilian governor, Ahmad Sani Yarima was elected in 1999 on the platform of APP; re-elected in 2003 when the party became ANPP and handed over to Mahmud Shinkafi also of ANPP in 2007 while Abdul’aziz Yari also of ANPP and later of APC took over from 2011 to date. In the 2015 general election, APC swept almost all votes in Zamfara, leaving few for PDP and other fringe parties.
Unfortunately, however, APC victory in Zamfara for the 2019 general election is shaky. This is as the party does not have candidates for governorship, State and National Assembly elections in the state, having failed to meet up with the deadline stipulated by INEC for the conduct of party primaries. In the face of this political quagmire, PDP has remained intact in Zamfara under the former National Security Adviser, Aliyu Gusau, a retired General who is leading the war against APC.
FCT
The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja is geopolitically under the North Central Zone. As Nigeria’s Capital City, FCT is highly sophisticated even politically. The then ruling PDP defeated APC in Abuja in the 2015 general election and the probability of winning the 2019 general election is high, hence the hue and cry against APC is louder in the FCT. Regarded as a state, FCT – Abuja has the most enlightened residents who make political choices on prevailing circumstances, a development which secured victory for PDP in the previous elections.
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