Opposition in disarray as Nigeria tilts towards one-party state

…Trouble in parties could be APC’s tactic ahead 2027 – Momodu, others

…Nigerian political parties are dysfunctional – Analysts

With Nigeria’s ruling All Pro­gressives Congress (APC), which con­trols the Federal Gov­ernment, having more states and winning more during recent off-season governorship elections and with the lingering crisis which has crumbled opposition parties, observers say Nigeria risks sliding into one party state.

Interestingly, it is becoming obvious the dominance of the ruling party may expand across opposition stronghold states in 2027, with moves by opposition politicians to form alliances and present a common front against the ruling party looking increasingly unlikely because of personal interest.

Pundits say if the opposition remains fragmented it would further strengthen the ruling party to have an easy-ride in the 2027 poll, especially with the increasing defection of key political leaders from other troubled parties into its fold.

Since the end of the 2023 general election, a host of elected opposition figures have defected to the ruling party, with more, including governors, expected to jump ship before the end of 2025, ahead of the 2027.

The Labour Party (LP), for example, which emerged as the third force after the election, has lost no fewer than 18 lawmakers to the APC.

The main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has also lost scores of elected officials, including 27 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, some members of the House of Representatives, and senators.

Experts say one-party system may not just be dangerous for Nigeria’s democracy, but that it inhibits social development because important governmental policies, programmes and decisions are taken without consulting widely and subjecting the same to constructive debate, criticisms and input.

Trouble in parties could be APC’s tactic ahead 2027

Observers say this may just be clear indications that the race to win the presidency in 2027 has already taken off, they noted that fragmenting all the other parties and consolidating power around his person could be the tactics of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead 2027.

For now, the parties in Nigeria are in disarray which has affected their ability to offer credible opposition to the ruling party.

“Most of the politicians are going to where they get something, it shows you the crop of politicians we have today. It seems something is luring them to the ruling party.

“I don’t know if there is a plan to crumble other parties, but it is not a good sign going forward, “Tunde Adeniyi, political analyst, said.

Dele Momodu, veteran journalist and PDP chieftain, accused the ruling party of deliberately instigating crises within Nigeria’s major opposition parties in an effort to weaken them.

In an interview, Momodu warned that the country was dangerously heading towards a one-party state, claiming that the APC’s fear of a strong opposition is driving them to create turmoil within rival parties.

“Nigeria is obviously moving in a direction of a one-party state. The ruling party, APC, is so scared of opposition that right now crises are being orchestrated from party to party, especially the leading opposition parties like PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It’s obvious what is going on”, he said.

Momodu expressed uncertainty about the situation’s outcome, adding, “no one is in doubt about that, how this would end, I have no idea. So, we are watching.”

Some other political stake­holders have raised concerns about the issue, fearing that one party state will weaken democracy in Nigeria, especially with the docility of the legislature and its propensity to dance to the tune of the executive at every interval.

They fear that this dominance by one party can potentially limit political diver­sity and weaken accountability.

They equally agreed that the results of Nigeria’s 2023 general elections raised serious concerns about the pos­sibility of a one-party state, as one party now holds substantial power in many states.

Read also: 2027: Why opposition is determined to unite against APC – Johnson

Parties in crisis

The three major opposition parties which placed second and third and fourth behind the ruling party in the 2023 general election, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) are engulfed in a serious internal crisis with end in sight.

In the PDP, the party is currently embroiled in a leadership crisis, amid moves and counter-moves to remove Umar Damagum the acting national chairman and replace by a substantive PDP national chairman.

The crisis has created a division among the state governors elected on the PDP platform, while there are also cracks with the party’s National Working Committee.

Many state chapters are in crisis and factionalised, especially the Rivers’ chapter, which have been hijacked by the Nyesom Wike but which the court recently annulled the state congress conducted by the camp loyal to him.

Two chieftains, Samuel Anyanwu and Sunday Udeokoye are laying claims to the position of the national secretary.

Similar leadership crisis exists in the LP, where Julius Abure is holding firm as the national chairman, despite rejection from stakeholders of the party.

Last week Court of Appeal, Abuja Division, ruled that Abure remains the national chairman of the LP.

Justice Hamma Barka, upheld its earlier judgment of November 13, 2024, which recognised Abure as national chairman. The court confirmed that this decision has not been overturned by any other court.

But the 29-member caretaker committee, established by Abia State Governor Alex Otti and the party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, disagrees.

The committee, led by Senator Nenadi Usman, chairman and Darlington Nwokocha, as national secretary, declared that they remain in charge of the Labour Party’s affairs by virtue of the mandate entrusted to them by party stakeholders at an emergency convention. They are taking the matter to the Supreme Court.

Similarly, in the NNPP, Musa Kwankwaso and the camp loyal to the founder of the party, Boniface Aniebonam have been embroiled in a power struggle over the control of the structure of the party founded in 2022.

Meanwhile, despite the crisis, some political leaders are still optimistic that peace can still be reached among the leaders within these three opposition parties before the 2027 general election, even though many agree that without merger they may not be able to compete and dislodge the ruling party.

Thus, some opposition politicians led by Atiku Abubakar have been working to bring the three parties and their presidential candidates in the 2023 general election together, although, Rabiu Kwankwaso hinted some weeks ago that does not trust either Atiku or Peter Obi and was not in any alliance with any of them.

Nigerian political parties are dysfunctional- Analysts

Jibrin Ibrahim, political analyst, says there is crisis in Nigeria’s democratic system and the source of the dysfunctional party system, noting that democracies are sustainable only under conditions that allow competitive party systems to operate.

He stated that political parties in Nigeria have no core principles, ideologies or even sets of coherent political programmes that they are committed to.

The analyst pointed out that the situation was aiding the opposition figures’ mass defection because of the lure of political relevance, financial incentives, and the promise of patronage.

“The main problem is that the political parties have no core principles, ideologies or even sets of coherent political programmes that they are committed to.

“As the 2027 elections approach, the challenge for opposition parties is not just to survive but to redefine themselves as credible alternatives capable of inspiring confidence among a disenchanted electorate,” he said.

Also speaking, Laide Ogunbanwo, political analyst, stated that the current situation was a political strategy to weaken the opposition ahead 2027, noting that it is common with the political history of the politicians in power.

He stated that the current crops of politicians are selfish and the worst in the nation’s history.

Ogunbanwo further stressed that Nigerians can counter the dom­inance by one party by strength­ening civic engagement, adding that citizens, civil society groups and independent media should continue to raise awareness and promote transparency.