February 25, 2023, presidential election is likely to end up with Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, taking the most votes cast, according to a poll conducted by Nextier.
The poll result, which was released on Sunday, also revealed that, despite Obi’s likeliness to take the simple majority, the Labour Party presidential candidate is unlikely to take the mandatory 25 percent from the 36 states in the federation and the capital territory.
Nextier, a multi-competency Africa-focused consulting firm with core competencies in strategy, finance, policy research, analysis, design, and implementation, stated in a press statement that the presidential election is likely to end up in a run-off between Obi of the Labour Party and either of the two major contenders, Bola Ahmed Tinubu or Atiku Abubakar, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP).
The statement read, “A recent face-to-face nationwide poll on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections shows the Labour Party leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party at 6 percent.”
Read also: Nigerians in diaspora return to vote, declaring support for Peter Obi
According to the consulting firm, this poll is “its second presidential poll conducted on Friday, January 27, 2023, four weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.”
In arriving at its conclusion, “the team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.”
From the organisation’s support chart circulated on Twitter, out of the 3,000 respondents contacted, the Labour Party gathered 37 percent support for Obi, Abubakar of the PDP recorded 27 percent, Tinubu recorded 24 percent, and Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Political Party (NNPP) recorded just 6 percent.
A detailed breakdown of how Obi recorded 37 percent from respondents showed that in the Northwest, his highest vote came from Katsina State, the home state of President Muhammadu Buhari, where he came in second with 29.4 percent, just behind Abubakar of the PDP, who gathered 39.7 percent from respondents. Kaduna State didn’t lag behind, as Obi recorded 22.6 percent.
In the North East geopolitical region, Obi recorded 30.8 percent in Adamawa State, just less than 4 percent higher than Tinubu, who recorded the highest with 33.8 percent. Taraba State was good to Obi, as he recorded 21.6 percent of the respondents who participated in the poll.
In the North Central geopolitical region, Obi coasted home in most of the states, with Niger recording the least persuasive performance. Benue State—46.1 percent; Abuja (the Federal Capital Territory)—62.2 percent; Plateau State—39.1 percent; Nasarawa State—35.9 percent; while Kogi State and Kwara State both shared 25 percent of the respondents who participated.
In the South West geopolitical region, Obi recorded a much better performance than the North Central region, with him dominating votes cast in Ekiti State, Lagos State, Ogun State, and Oyo State with 36.2 percent, 39.4 percent, 36.3 percent, and 36.9 percent of prospective votes cast by respondents, while he recorded 24.4 percent and 19.1 percent in Ondo and Osun, respectively.
In the South-South and South-East geopolitical region, Obi’s ever-growing popularity seems to draw support from many respondents, as he dominated all the states there, with prospective votes as high as 96.6 percent in Anambra state, his home state. The least prospective vote recorded in the South-South for the former Anambra State governor is 60.5 percent from Akwa Ibom State, while Ebonyi, with a population of over 3 million people according to National Population Commission of Nigeria figures from 2006, recorded 80.5 percent.
“Most registered voters (72 percent) have decided on their preferred party,” Nextier said. “This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.
“Eighty-three percent of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the elections. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.”
Some salient observations were made ahead of the presidential election. “Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77 percent of respondents indicated that they “will vote” in this election, while 63 percent stated that they “will definitely vote.
“This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities,” it revealed.
They warned, however, that voter turnout could be affected by a series of disturbing factors. They include “insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Only 52 percent of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair.”
Patrick O. Okigbo III, a founding partner at Nextier, stated “that the presidential election is shaping to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades. It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.”
Okigbo III promised that “Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s elections and other development issues.”
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