Hope dims on credible polls in 2023

Signals are not showing any hope for a credible election in 2023 despite the amended Electoral Act that was recently signed into law by President Muhammadu Buhari.

Many Nigerians speak in tandem that the desperation among politicians and political parties has cast a doubt over the possibility of free, fair and credible election next year.

It has also been noticed that political parties and politicians are still going about politicking in the very same usual way, whereas a total change of mindset and attitudinal change was urgently needed to change to produce credible set of leaders in 2023.

The voting masses have also refused to take a decision to make a statement to those who have over the years deprived of quality governance and development.

Pat Utomi, A political economist, in a recent interview with BusinessDay, lamented that it does not appear that there would be a change in the people’s mindset and their perception of leadership in the country.

“It is a myth that people who think are dangerous and that the people who don’t think, they have to be thugs and that only thugs can hold things together. Basically, it is a stupid concept, but Nigerians have somehow been made to believe it that the more stupid you are the more likely you are to be a political leader.

So, the country is run by stupid people; so, why wouldn’t the place be a mess like it is? When you talk, you hear people say, ‘Ah na grammar we go chop?’ ‘These na grammar people.’ It is an incredible myth, and how they succeeded in selling it to the people beats me; but they have succeeded,” Utomi said.

Expressing his doubt over likelihood of an improved election in Nigeria next year, Olisa Agbakoba, a senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), in an interview with BusinessDaySunday, said: “Voters vote but I am not sure how much votes will count this time around.”

According to him, “In an illiberal system, the pattern of voting does not necessarily reflect the wishes of the people. It becomes a process. In Nigeria, it is just a process – every four years, you go for an election.

A lot of money is being wasted in the process. Have you heard any of the politicians talk about the people? They talk about themselves. They are consumed with the intention of how ‘do we get into office?’ That makes it difficult to have great choices.”

With the high cost of expression of interest and nomination forms charged by the major parties, and also the desperation of political parties to produce the next president, pundits predict that the election may not be different from the past ones. They also said that it could be a do-or-die affair, capable of engendering all manner of electoral frauds.

In May 2018, when President Muhammadu Buhari signed into law the “NotTooYoungToRun” bill, many, especially the Nigerian youths, were jubilating with the assurance that hope was about rising for fresh minds, less corrupted and development-oriented young Nigerians to grab power and offer good leadership, which has been lacking in the country since after the short-lived First Republic.

Sadly, that hope is fast dashing today, despite the ‘enabling law’ that supports youth participation in leadership.

Considering the hike in the nomination forms across all the elective positions in 2023 for the aspirants by the two major political parties; the APC and PDP, the youths are tactically eliminated.

There are outcries across the country as hardly any reasonable youth in the APC can cough out N100million for presidential ticket, N50 million for governorship, N20 million and N10 million for senatorial and House of Representatives tickets respectively.

Though Iyorchia Ayu, national chairman, People’s Democratic Party (PDP), slammed the APC over the N100m it charged for the presidential nomination forms, at N40 million, the PDP presidential nomination form is still out of the reach of the youth and decent Nigerians, who are capable of leading the country aright.

Chijioke Umelahi, an Abuja-based lawyer and former Abia lawmaker, decried the current situations in the country’s political landscape, lamenting further that they all point to the impossibility of credible polls in 2023.

“How can you ask aspirants to pay N100 million for nomination forms and the government, security operatives and the INEC are just watching. Anyone who buys the forms, especially the APC nomination forms should be investigated for fraud,” Umelahi insisted.

Umelahi, a political aspirant, said he cannot afford the new price for the nomination forms in either APC or PDP because they are cut-throat.

He argued that with the cut-throat form prices, the stage is set for electoral fraud as only moneybags can play, while the youth are totally out of the equation and all the efforts at passing the “NotTooYoungToRun” into law are in futility.

“If only the moneybags are allowed to compete, by virtue of the outrageous hike in the nomination forms, then Nigeria should forget 2023 because the election will be for the highest giver, corruption will reign and looting will continue afterwards. If I pay N100million, it is an investment and I will recoup my investment before looking the way of the masses; after all, I bought the votes,” he said.

In the same vein, Sam Onikoyi, a Nigerian researcher in Brussels Belgium, lamented that the money politics is a dangerous line to toe at this time Nigeria needs a thoroughbred and committed leader to pull her out of her helpless insecurity state, fix the economy, ensure equity and justice, and engender national unity and love.

“If you check all the developmental indices, Nigeria has fallen below average and even rates among the worst in recent times. We should jettison politics and look for leaders that can help the country to regain her lost glory.

The way to do that is to discourage money politics, retire moneybags and give fresh minds a chance. Can the parties reduce the nomination forms fees, they are anti-democracy, anti-development and pro-corruption,” he said.

While lamenting his dissatisfaction over the hike in nominations forms and impact on the 2023 election, Idris Shehu, an APC senatorial aspirant from Kaduna State, said that the party went the wrong way in separating the ‘boys from the men’, noting further that the moneybags, who have been jumping from APC to PDP at their favourable times are the ones needed to be weeded out and not the promising young people who do not have the money to buy the nomination forms.

“This is not a case of decamping to another party with cheap nomination forms because the two major parties and the moneybags that run them are desperate to retain power and will go to any length, including the tactical disenfranchising of youths by the exorbitant and exclusionary prices of nomination forms, among other violent ways to rig themselves into power,” he lamented.

But Onikoyi thinks that the INEC, as the umpire, has the right to check the excesses of the parties, including the cut-throat price of the nomination forms.

“I do not think that the INEC is doing its job because if it had been the true umpire it is meant to be, the political parties will fear it. The INEC can insist on the prices of the forms or it will not bend for the parties too, but I don’t see it doing so because of vested interests; it is appointed by the ruling party and answerable to it, so how do you hope for credible election in 2023,” he said.

For Umelahi, the EFCC should come in to save the day instead of waiting until the aspirants, pay N100 million to buy forms, then buy votes during election, and start stealing when they get into office to recoup their money.

“Shouldn’t the EFCC investigate all the aspirants that easily pay the N100 million cut-throat price? Why will one pay so much and you expect him not to steal and you still expect development. I think we should prevent corruption now rather than wait to arrest looters tomorrow,” Umelahi queried.

Simon Lukman, an Abuja-based political analyst, told BusinessDaySunday that the high cost of nomination by political parties is a prelude to the rigging of the 2023 general election.

“The candidates that emerged from that expensive process will be left with no choice than to deploy all illegal means to win at the general election and when they eventually win they will be primarily concerned with getting their return on their investment rather than providing good governance,” Lukman said.

Samson Itodo, executive director, Yiaga Africa and the convener of the #NotTooYoungToRun bill, also expressed concern over what he termed the exorbitant cost of nomination forms by political parties for the 2023 general election.
Itodo had said: “It is imperative to state that this practice does not bode well for Nigeria’s fledgling democracy as it further marginalises women and youth, two vulnerable groups who make up the largest demography in the country from participating in the political process.

“The expensive nature of Nigeria’s politics has been established to be a structural barrier to women and youth political participation, thus, it is saddening to see that political parties, which remains the primary medium for contesting elections in the country continue to perpetuate this injustice.

“Going by the high cost of nomination forms that have been announced so far by some political parties ahead of the 2023 general elections, it is safe to say that this is a deliberate attempt to marginalise women, youth and persons living with disabilities (PWDs) from participating in the political process as candidates in the forthcoming general elections.”

A civil rights advocacy group, the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) said any citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in good standing with the laws should arrest those persons buying APC forms at N100 million each set per person.

HURIWA said: “it is inconceivable that a citizen of Nigeria who made his money through legitimate means can afford to fritter away the princely sum of N100 million just because he/she wants to put himself out to become the servant of the people of Nigeria.

“Anyone who buys the nomination form at such a scandalous high amount of cash, should first be arrested by the citizens if possible under the law permitting citizen’s arrest so such a person is handed over to law enforcement agencies such as EFCC or ICPC or Police for investigation on the source of the money.

“The irrational and criminally minded rationale for scaling up the cost of Presidential form to such a humongous amount as announced by the APC, will inevitably affect the value of the Naira giving that economic saboteurs who had siphoned public fund and warehoused the stolen money in dollar denominated currency will now bring them out to search for N100 million equivalence of the stolen dollars from public coffers to buy presidential nomination from thereby limiting the Naira in circulation for legitimate businesses.”

Osagie Obayuwana, a legal practitioner, said that Nigeria was not in a democracy.

“The 2023 poll is for the moneybags; there is no other proof that anybody needs. It is a confession by them that this whole process is not about the masses but the moneybags. The Nigerian people need no other proof to say that this whole process is a sham.
“How much are they paying in taxes? What is their source of income? So, it is not a democracy; but a system of the rich, by the rich, and for the rich. The poor people of Nigeria are being told that they shouldn’t expect relief in sight,” he said.

Obayuwana, a former commissioner for Justice in Edo State and the national president, Committee for the Defence of Human Rights (CDHR), posited that there would be no credible polls in 2023 because the political parties and bigwigs have once again monetised the whole process.

“Once again, it is money politics, and the nomination forms have set a stage for that. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should be concerned, but you know he who pays the piper calls the tune. So, how do you expect the body to quarrel with whoever appointed or paid them?

“Although there is a law that set a limit on how much politicians can spend, history of electioneering in this country is such that nobody has ever been charged for violating the law. INEC sees his tasks as delivering a verdict that meets the expectations of those who appointed them,” he added.

In the same vein, Jonathan Enegide, a Benin-based lawyer, told BusinessDaySunday that there should be inbuilt mechanisms in political parties to check the sales of forms for Nigeria’s top office to the highest bidder.

Enegide said there are laws and that the INEC has the mandate to regulate the financial involvements in electioneering processes, especially as it relates to parties.

“INEC may not give a kind of fiat, but they could dialogue with the parties through the carrot and stick approach. When that fails, they invoke certain aspects of their laws. So, when you have that kind of mindset and make the whole thing transparent, there will be no much attachment to finance or raising money for the party or cutting corners to make financial gains,” Enegide said.

Commenting on the high cost of nomination forms, the legal practitioner said, “It is unacceptable. What is the total salary of the president of Nigeria? It is less than N60 million annually. So, will it make economic sense to invest N100 million just to get less than N60 million. So, ab initio, the intent to serve is not there and there won’t be many services to the people.

“By the time you say nomination forms are N100 million, that means you are indirectly saying there are more rich men who are criminals than genuine rich men. So, those are the ones that will be ready and willing to pay anything and to do whatever they think it is possible just to get power.

“The end justifies the means. It is not the best way to go; it doesn’t make for healthy democracy. It will definitely affect the credibility of the 2023 general election. You can’t build something on nothing, and a faulty start, most times, brings about a disastrous end.

“The candidates are being thrown up with a particular mindset; so much money is invested, and desperation sets in. It is not just about paying so much for the forms; it is paying so much more and devising intrigues for other methods, both legitimate and illegitimate, to ensure they get what they want,” he added.

Although, it is not the first time that political parties in Nigeria are charging exorbitant prices for their forms. However, it was expected that parties would apply caution this time around in view of the increasing opposition to the trend and worsening poverty across Nigeria.

Read also: 2023 and highlights of the Electoral Act 2022

In 2019, the PDP sold its EOI and nomination forms as follows: N12m for president, N6m for governor, N3.5m for Senate, N2.5m for House of Representatives and N600, 000 for House of Assembly.

But the APC, which is the ruling party sold its form at a much higher price of N45 million for president, N22.5 million for governor, N7 million for Senate, N3.85 million for House of Representatives.

Again, although, the parties had consistently defended the high fees by saying they were fixed to separate the serious people from pretenders and that they reflect inflationary trends in the country, analysts say that the trend is a setback to democracy in Nigeria, and the quest for inclusiveness and accountability in governance.

The trend has exacerbated in the last two decades, and observers are of the view that it is very dangerous to rely so heavily on the internal electoral process of parties as a major source of revenue generation.

They say the present state of things perhaps, gives the impression that the elections in Nigeria were reserved for the higher bidder.

It is believed that such high fees lead to corruption in government as those who so purchased the forms at exorbitant prices would want to recoup their investment at the detriment of the masses they are supposed to serve.

Recall that incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari had lamented that he could not afford to buy the APC nomination form.

Reports had indicated that he took a bank loan to pay N25 million for a nomination form in 2015 and had to rely on well-wishers to raise the N45 million he needed for the same purpose to contest the 2019 polls.

During last year’s gubernatorial election in Ondo State the two leading parties charged exorbitant fees for the sale of their forms and generated millions after the exercise was conducted.

“When the fee was announced, I screamed that it was too much and that I did not have the money,” Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu who was the APC candidate in the 2020 gubernatorial election, had said.

Taofeek Gani, former publicity secretary of the Lagos State chapter of the PDP, said the huge amount was justified sometimes, adding that some politicians often come from nowhere during election to vie on the political parties’ platforms without taking into cognisance how the party had been built.

Gani however, admitted that the amount should not be so high as to make it look like a punitive measure, adding that the Electoral Act should also take part of the blame.

“Why do they want to contest under the platform at all cost? They want to contest, reap where they did not sow. You must pay some dues; but I also agree it should not be so high, looking like a punitive measure, just like the way it is now.

“But I think the Electoral Act is where the lacuna is because; they did not specify how the parties should go about charging their aspirants for forms and the rest. But the parties need money for advertising; they do a lot of that during elections. So, it is not by force you can go under another platform and contest,” Gani said.

But political analyst, Anayo Ezegwu said there was no justification for the high cost of the forms. He said the outcry across the country is an indication that the people are not happy with what is happening.

“The outcry across the country over the high cost of nomination and expression of interest form is an indication that the people are not happy. It has become a cultural issue in our political space that delegate congresses are always dominated by money bags.

“And the political development in the country has shown that the 2023 general elections would be a money based election,” Anayo Ezegwu said.

Meanwhile, in view of the enormous powers conferred on INEC to regulate Nigeria’s electoral process, the conduct of elections and related activities, observers say perhaps the onion is on INEC to do more to check campaign spending of parties and the growing influence of money in the electoral process in the country.

However, Kunle Okunade, political analyst said there is little the commission can do in view of the present realities in Nigeria.

According to him, “I don’t think there is any legal instrument that empowers INEC to determine the amount a political party should sell its nomination forms. INEC is only empowered to determine the amount a candidate spends on campaign and electioneering.

“So, the only way the electoral body can come in checking the cost of nomination form is if it is included in the Electoral Act.”

Hammed Muritala, public affairs commentator, also said: “The high cost of nomination and expression of interest forms of the two dominant political parties we have in the country, particularly the ruling All Progressives Congress, is a clear pointer that the 2023 general election will be highly monetised.

“A politician that paid as high as N50 million or N100 million to purchase his party’s nomination forms would be willing and ready to pay more to get the party’s ticket and also induce voters with cash to win the main election.

“We all heard what happened during the last presidential primaries of the PDP at Port Harcourt in 2018 where some presidential aspirants paid delegates between 3000 and 5000 dollars to vote for them.”

He further said: “From all indications now, both the APC and the PDP will adopt direct primaries to elect their presidential candidates for next year’s elections. You can imagine how much these presidential aspirants will be ready to offer delegates during the primaries.”

The situation is even worst as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which monitors activities of political parties said it cannot determine the cost of nomination forms.

Rotimi Oyekanmi, Chief Press Secretary to INEC Chairman, in his response to BusinessDaySunday inquiries said: “The Commission has no role in the determination of the cost of nomination forms for party primaries.”