El-Rufai woos Obi, others as 2027 battle begins

…Peter Obi is coming – El-Rufai’s son hints

…More defections loom

The race to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 is gaining momentum as Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, dumps the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in what appears to be a strategic move to build an opposition coalition.

El-Rufai, who has been at odds with Tinubu and the ruling party since he was denied a ministerial appointment, formally announced his departure from the party on Monday.

In a statement on his X (formerly Twitter) account, he criticised the APC leadership, accusing them of straying from the party’s founding ideals.

“Developments in the last two years confirm that those who currently control and run the APC do not desire to acknowledge, much less address, the party’s unhealthy situation. I have raised concerns in private and, more recently, in public regarding the party’s capricious trajectory. Therefore, at this point in my political journey, I have come to the conclusion that I must seek another political platform to pursue the progressive values I cherish,” El-Rufai stated.

Read also: Kaduna APC says El-Rufai decampment not a concern

His defection came just 24 hours after he met with Rauf Aregbesola, former interior minister, and Pastor Tunde Bakare, a former presidential aspirant, in Lagos, fueling speculations about political realignments ahead of 2027.

The former governor has also been in discussions with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who was the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate in 2023. Atiku has publicly declared plans to build a strong opposition coalition to challenge Tinubu.

In a post via X on Sunday, Atiku disclosed that he met with El-Rufai alongside former Adamawa state governor, Jibrilla Bindow.

“After tonight’s Itfar (breaking of fast), I received in audience, former Governor of Kaduna State, @elrufai, former Governor of Adamawa, Jibrilla Bindow and Musa Halilu, Dujima Adamawa. Our robust discussions were the dessert of the meal,” he wrote.

El-Rufai is also reportedly courting Labour Party’s Peter Obi, despite years of political rivalry. The speculation gained momentum after El-Rufai’s son, Bashir El-Rufai, hinted that Obi might be joining the SDP.

Responding to a post on X, where a user claimed that the SDP would struggle to defeat the APC without Peter Obi, Bashir replied: “He is coming.”

Sources indicate that former Kaduna governor is also working to reconcile Atiku with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), in an attempt to merge opposition forces into a formidable alliance. The coalition is expected to attract former governors and ex-ministers eager to challenge the APC’s dominance.

Sources told BusinessDay that some aggrieved chieftains of the APC like Abubakar Malami, former attorney general of the federation (AGF), and Abdullahi Adamu, former national chairman of the APC, among other leaders of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which merged into the APC in 2015, may leave the APC in the coming months.

Similarly, pundits say El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP may just be part of ongoing plan to form a broad alliance of opposition politicians to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Read also: Why I dumped APC for SDP — El-Rufai

More defections expected

However, analysts have predicted that many other aggrieved APC chieftains could follow El-Rufai and leave the APC in the coming months.

“The former Kaduna State governor’s defection is expected based on the happenings in the APC for some time now,” Kunle Okunade, political analyst, told BusinessDay

“El-Rufai’s defection is an indication that the APC is not well managed and the situation may still lead to the party losing many stalwarts before the third quarter of this year,” he added.

Atiku, PDP’s presidential candidate in 2023 general election, has called for alliance of opposition parties against the APC in 2027 and has been publicly seen with the former Kaduna governor who also visited him over the weekend.

“What is happening now is similar to what happened in pre-2015 general election when aggrieved PDP members formed a coalition with CPC, ACN, APGA and other smaller parties. It is obvious that the political system shall experience such at this period again,” Okunade said.

“It is only through coalition that APC could be defeated. Anything short of that is child’s play.

“And this is a dangerous thing to the APC considering the political weight of El-rufai and the like who are currently aggrieved in the party,” Okunade added.

Speaking further, the political analyst stated that the founding members of the APC are most likely to dump the party, noting that this would take a serious toll on the APC.

Tope Musowo, political analyst and public policy expert, predicted that there would be serious implosion in the ruling party ahead of 2027 owing to the current administration’s style of sidelining some individuals.

“This is the beginning of the drama. I see more defections and implosion in the APC ahead of 2027. You saw the NEC meeting that was held, where a lot of chieftains that are not in their good books or those close to the former administration, were sidelined.

“Many leaders are not happy with the way the party is being run now. The president is not carrying everyone along. Many are just silent and waiting for the time to leave. He would lose many leaders in the North and it can affect his re-election bid,” Musowo said.

Read also: El-Rufai abandons APC for SDP

Tinubu’s camp responds

Reacting to El-Rufai’s defection, Daniel Bwala, a spokesperson for the Bola Tinubu administration, dismissed the move as a desperate attempt to unseat the incumbent.

In a statement on X, Bwala questioned El-Rufai’s political ideology, saying, “Senior, @elrufai . I read the news today that you resigned from APC to join SDP. Well, I have nothing against you because you exercised your constitutional right.

“However, the MOTIVE is what we would interrogate in the coming days and remind Nigerians that you are not a phenomenon that emerged like a clap of thunder out of a blue sky.

“We would intellectually remind you that associating with sore losers to unseat the incumbent is not an IDEOLOGY, neither is it PROGRESSIVISM; it is simply an inordinate AMBITION, that is destined to fail.”