Four months before the governorship elections, a state-wide opinion poll results released on Monday sees Governor of Lagos, Babajide Sanwo-Olu; Labour Party’s candidate in Abia State, Alex Otti; and Governor of Kwara State, Abdulrasaq leading the governorship race in their respective states.
The poll commissioned by Atedo Peterside-led ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls also predicted that in Rivers, Siminalayi Fubara of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has an advantage, while in Kano, the race is between Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
In Lagos, Sanwo-Olu of the APC led by a wide margin, with Azeez Olajide Adediran of the PDP and Gbadebo Patrick Rhodes-Vivour of the Labour Party (LP) trailing far behind.
It put Sanwo-Olu in first place, with 30% of voters saying they would vote for him if the governorship elections were held today; 8% said they would vote for Adediran, and 4% said they would vote for Rhodes-Vivour.
The polls results showed that Sanwo-Olu’s percentage-point lead at this early stage is very significant, as opposition voters are fragmented and divided between two main challengers in the ratio 30:8:4.
Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate totaled 30% and 26%, respectively. The gender analysis of undecided voters revealed that 35% of women were undecided compared to 27% of male voters.
The percentage of registered voters in Lagos West is 84, while Lagos East has 85 and Lagos Central has 89.
“Abia in the southeast has an interesting result because it is a PDP state, but our opinion poll shows that Alex Otti of the Labour Party has an early lead as of the time our poll ended in October,” Peterside said.
Alex, the next candidate, has 20% of the vote, while Uchenna Ikonne of the PDP has 9%, Gregory Ikechukwu Ibe of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has 4%, the APC has 3%, and the rest are lower.
Although the elections are four months away, it’s a bit of a surprise that the Labour Party has emerged from nowhere to take a significant lead in polls in what has historically been PDP strongholds, according to Peterside’s analysis.
“So, if you have to summarise the results, the only conclusion you can draw is that the Labour Party has an early lead but is not conclusive,” he said.
In Rivers, the poll revealed a significantly close race between Fubara and Tonye Cole of the APC, with Magnus Abe of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Dumo Owukori Lulu-Briggs of the Accord Party (A) emerging as outsiders in that order.
The results showed Fubara with a small lead, with 14% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were held today, and 11% proposing to vote for Cole, who fell to second place, while Abe was third with 6% and Lulu-Briggs was fourth with 4%.
“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate were 37% and 18%, respectively,” the polls summary read. “The gender split of undecided voters shows that 43% of women are undecided versus 34% of male voters.”
ANAP stated that the governorship poll results showed some early trends, emphasising that the battle ahead is in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, who will ultimately decide which candidate becomes governor of Rivers.
For Kano state, the poll revealed an 18-point gap between Yusuf of the NNPP and Gawuna of the APC.
The results showed Yusuf with a significant lead, with 29% of voters planning to vote for him if the governorship election were held today, and 21% planning to vote for Gawuna of the APC, who came in second place. Mohammed Wali of the PDP came in third place, with only 3% of voters intending to vote for him.
In Kwara, Abdulrasaq of the APC maintained his commanding lead, with Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi of the PDP and Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal of the SDP trailed.
“The results showed a significant lead for Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRaqaz, with 30% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were held today, and 11% proposing to vote for Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi (PDP), who came in second place. Mr. Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal (SDP) came in third place, with only 3% of voters intending to vote for him,” ANAP said.
“And I should also explain that every time we do a breakdown by gender for the undecided voters, more women are undecided than men across the board in all of our polls so far,” Peterside said, analysing statistics of undecided voters.
“I suppose the typical candidate is a man, and the women are saying, ‘Let’s hear more from you, let’s assess him before we make up our minds’.”
The data summarised the top five reasons why voters are more likely to vote in the upcoming elections, which include road repair, security, the economy, infrastructure, and unemployment.
“According to the poll, nearly eight out of 10 registered voters are certain they will vote in the next governorship election.” If they stay committed, we could see a massive turnout in the March 2023 elections,” it said.
The ANAP Foundation has been conducting opinion polls since 2011, through NOI Polls.
In 2015 and 2019, the ANAP foundation poll predicted the victory of incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, while also successfully predicting Goodluck Jonathan’s victory in 2011 presidential poll.
