Edo 2024, Ghana 2024 and INEC Mahmoud Yakubu

Ghana has just successfully conducted an unimpeachable presidential election, in which the candidate of the opposition party won against the sitting vice president, Mahamudu Bawumia. The VP had conceded victory to John Mahama, the opposition candidate, even before counting was over. As Ghana and the world were rejoicing, congratulating, and celebrating the maturity of Ghana’s democracy, engendered by the consistent fair play of its electoral body, our own INEC Umpire, Mahmoud Yakubu, was encountering spasms of conscience bouts, exacerbated by

Nigerians want Professor Mahmoud to explain how at least two different results from one election in Edo 2024 have been presented to the Edo 2024 Election Tribunal. In the Edo Election Tribunal, there is the result on form EC8a from the voting units, which will agree with the second from their IREV. INEC would glorify IREV before the election to get a budget for it. On election day, INEC would start uploading results into the IREV and boast of how their innovative technology is working until one observant staff member points out to their INEC boss that the opposition is winning. There and then, the IREV will develop an automatic fault. And a NEW result style will be MANUFACTURED immediately. Finally, they would PRODUCE the third result, the CTC, which will of course be different from the first two.

If Ghana learnt from Mahmoud Yakubu, by now, no reputable civil society group or other accredited observers would be agreeing with the field assessment and final results declared. The slogan: Go to Court! would have been rending the air in Ghana.

INEC has a mandate to conduct, collate, announce, and defend Edo 2024 election results, but INEC’s chronic collective failure was exposed in Etsako West, Etsako East, Owan East, and Akoko Edo, where INEC used magical results that are different from the results from form EC8A, i.e., units result, to declare Senator Monday Okpebholo as the winner. From certified true copies of Form EC8A results in Etsako West, Etsako East, Owan East, and Akoko Edo, the total score is less than the score declared in the INEC Office, Benin City. In the collation of results, figures were changed from units to wards, wards to local governments, and from local governments to states. This is INEC’s chronic collective failure results collation. INEC grossly violated its guidelines and the Electoral Act 2022 on the collation of election results.

There was absolutely no excuse for the results from the Oredo and Ikpoba Okha Local Government Areas to be the last to be received. Both local governments form part of the state capital, and their collation centres are less than five minutes’ drive from the venue of final collation, yet INEC kept the world waiting even after results from faraway local governments had been received. INEC’s chronic collective failure was widely noticed in form EC8A results from Edo South that showed more accredited voters, but accreditation from results from form EC8A from Edo North was less than Edo South. But magically Edo North produced the highest figures to declare APC the winner of the election.

“While BVAS and IREV systems did not technically malfunction during the election, INEC’s deliberate refusal to implement them led to widespread irregularities in the collation of results at wards and local governments.”

While BVAS and IREV systems did not technically malfunction during the election, INEC’s deliberate refusal to implement them led to widespread irregularities in the collation of results at wards and local governments. This has resulted in two conflicting Certified True Copies (CTCs) of results from INEC, both presented before the Edo Election Tribunal. Elections in Nigeria have historically been plagued by poor administration, questionable outcomes, and frequent litigation. This pattern continues due to the weak institutionalisation of INEC, which suffers from a lack of financial and administrative autonomy, professionalism, transparency, trust, and oversight.

The irregularities at wards and local governments collation centres in the Edo 2024 election have significant implications for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections. More than 25 election observer groups described the Edo election as “the worst since 2007,” citing rampant manipulation of wards results, intimidation by security forces, and the exclusion of party agents and observers during result collation.

The use of IREV, intended to enhance transparency, has instead discredited the election results from Edo North. The discrepancies between IREV’s uploaded results and INEC’s official announcements have eroded public confidence in the results from Etsako West, Etsako East, Owan East, and Akoko Edo. Many Nigerians are now questioning the massive investment in INEC and its technology, which has failed to deliver credible outcomes. INEC’s chronic collective failure was displayed in Etsako West, Etsako East, Owan East, and Akoko Edo. The chronic collective failure led to the missing of some units, resulting in Etsako West, and some INEC officials allegedly interfered in the election process, violating INEC guidelines and the Electoral Act of 2022.

At the Etsako West, Etsako East, Owan East, and Akoko Edo local government collation levels, the 2024 Edo election lacked credibility, drawing unfavourable comparisons even to the controversial June 12, 1993, election. Observers noted that the unit-level results on IREV significantly differed from those announced by INEC. Moreover, APC governors allegedly interfered in the election process, violating INEC guidelines and the Electoral Act of 2022.

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According to Chidoka, the Athena Centre’s analysis of the election results revealed significant discrepancies, including a mismatch between the number of accredited voters recorded by presiding officers at polling units and the figures reported by INEC’s BVAS backend. He claimed that while polling unit records showed 580,000 accredited voters, INEC’s backend inflated the figure to 687,000, adding more than 100,000 votes in 798 polling units. Chidoka described this as clear evidence of backend tampering and a deliberate effort to manipulate the outcome.

He also pointed to discrepancies between the certified true copies of polling unit results issued by INEC and the results uploaded to its Result Viewing Portal (IReV). These irregularities, he alleged, suggest the use of duplicate result sheets containing fabricated figures to skew the election.

The evidence of systemic rigging is so substantial that we cannot even recognise this as a valid election,” he said. Chidoka warned that allowing the flawed results to stand would set a dangerous precedent, making credible elections impossible in 2027.

Chidoka also raised concerns about over-voting, missing results, and the manipulation of BVAS records at INEC’s headquarters. He expressed dismay at what he described as the erosion of public trust in the electoral process, stating, “The BVAS machines, previously hailed as the gold standard for election integrity, were remotely manipulated by INEC. This revelation completely betrays public trust.”

The incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers, and party agents and the collation of results contrary to the provisions of the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines, severely undermine the credibility of the election results.

I must strongly condemn the actions of some biased INEC officials who altered figures during collation, including the actions of some security officials who interfered with the collation process.

Leaving aside INEC’s now-routine lapses in logistics and timing, which have now become an integral part of their election processes, the most disappointing aspect of the election was the live televised collation process. Despite all the billions INEC spends on elections, it appears as if they do not consider the optics of the televised announcement of results to be important. Their late start forced INEC to extend the voting time in some areas and was partly responsible for the delay in results being uploaded.

The success of any election depends on efficient planning and its conduct, i.e., accreditation, voting, counting, collation, and results declaration. Each of these processes feeds into the next. Collation and declaration of results are critical stages in the election process. Failure to complete the collation and transmission of results in a quick, transparent, and accurate manner can jeopardise public confidence and the credibility of the elections and will most likely affect whether candidates and political parties accept the final results. The Edo 2024 election was a situation when the integrity of a well-run electoral process was severely compromised because of problems experienced during the collation and declaration of results. Collation and declaration of Edo 2024 results were critical moments that INEC collectively failed during results collation.

Inwalomhe Donald writes via [email protected]