Nigeria’s business environment will remain among the most challenging in the world over the next five years, says the Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU in its latest global commentary released Tuesday. It said a continuation of this difficulty could mean that President Bola Tinubu may not be able to hold on to power after the 2027 elections.
According to the EIU, “burgeoning market opportunities as the population expands, alongside economic reforms, carry the potential for long-term improvements, but Nigeria remains in 76th place of 82 economies assessed in 2025-29.”
It said, “ in the early part of the forecast period Nigeria will grapple with high inflation, a collapse in US dollar market size and an overstretched fiscal position and sluggish output.
“International oil prices are expected to be high enough to lubricate the system and prevent a recession, but Nigeria will not return to the high rates of economic growth that it achieved in the first decade of the 21st century.
“Low growth and its secularity have made the administration more mindful of the business environment, even if reforms fall well behind intentions or rhetoric.”
EIU acknowledged that the the President Bola Tinubu’s has been a “pro-business administration since May 2023”, noting that it expects it to “be more aggressive in implementing the remainder of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2021-25. The NDP emphasises the government’s active participation—in partnership with the private sector—in key segments of the economy, with the goal of achieving an average real GDP growth rate of about 5%, creating about 21m jobs and lifting 35m people out of poverty. The goal of cutting unemployment and underemployment (with about a quarter of the workforce working less than 20 hours a week) will also be central to policymaking over the longer term.
“The government of Mr Tinubu, the president, has successfully pressed ahead with the NDP’s goals of a unified and efficient currency regime, alongside the elimination of fuel and electricity subsidies. The aim is to attract investment and expand fiscal space for the government’s ambitious development agenda, although progress on these fronts is likely to be slower burning.”
On the down side, the EIU said, “the size of the bureaucracy will, if anything, increase. Structurally, institutions are sclerotic and dysfunctional on multiple levels, with corruption, politicisation of the judiciary, rampant instability and wide infrastructure gaps all drawbacks to the business environment.”
Looking ahead, the EIU gave a political forecast that will be worry the government and its supporters.
According to the publication, “the 2027 election cycle starts early, with the opposition kicking into gear to build support, and the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) moving to placate disillusioned northern allies. The political environment is tense during the 2027 general elections. We expect the president, Bola Tinubu, to lose power owing to public frustration over high inflation.”
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