Impeaching the hydrocarbon industry?

When the late DSP Alamieseigha of Bayelsa State was impeached in December 2005, oil facilities in the state suffered attacks and the hydrocarbon industry took a hit. Nigeria’s oil industry began the free fall (from Obj through Yar’Adua to GEJ) to as low as 900,000bpd for a country that was targeting 2.4mbpd.

Did Nigeria learn any lesson? Never! Aso Rock may still not have known that a sneeze in the Govt Houses in the oil region sets fire in the creeks.

Now, Nigeria has managed to grow its daily crude to almost 1.8mbd trying to get to at least 2mbd but the political class seems to unaware of the threat they pose to the hydrocarbon industry.

They seem to take one step forward, 10 steps backward. Just as the crude export began to grow up to meeting Nigeria’s OPEC quota, the nation’s political lords have from the backdoor sabotaged their own efforts by allowing the festering crisis between Gov Sim Fubara, the first governor of Ijaw extraction in 24 years, and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, the Ikwerre-born politician whose upland section had governed for 24 years.

Read also: Petroleum Club looks at hydrocarbon and Nigeria economy in 2027 

The crisis has led to stopping federal allocations to Rivers State thus pushing workers to hunger and throwing the state into confusion. The people seem to believe they have been shut out of oil revenue whereas the revenue originated from their state. Even if oil is not all from Rivers State but the pipelines that export oil and gas pass through the state to Bonny export terminal.

Many now believe that impeaching another governor in the womb of the oil industry amounts simply to deliberately impeaching the hydrocarbon industry. Even Nigeria’s oil and gas sea port (before it was opened to all) is located deeply in Rivers State.

No other part of the Niger Delta is safe if Rivers is in turmoil because you will neither export nor import oil facilities. Nigeria’s only fertilizer export terminal (Indorama Fertilizer) is also in Rivers State.

It is understood that almost all the IOCs have sent alerts to their international headquarters hinting that the impending impeachment move in Rivers State might lead to extensive damage and security crisis. In such situation, topmost and sensitive personnel are usually ferried out, albeit quietly.

It does not seem to bother those fighting the administration that the state lost over N2 trillion in the first impeachment wars involving then Gov Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and now FCT Minister, Wike. The then minister of education was bent on getting Amaechi out of the seat but Amaechi resisted it. This led to fleeing of investments and stoppage of ongoing economic ventures. Partners and investors fled, too.

Now, the impeachment drums are beating again and many are sure that ore damages would be done to the economy of the state.

It is already estimated that over N2trn would be damaged this time around, totalling over N5trn likely loss. This would continue to set the state back while its closest competitor, Lagos, moves to about $107bn in GDP whereas Rivers struggles at $28bn. In terms of budget growth, Rivers seems to struggle at N1.18trn in 2025 while Lagos which was at same N420bn in 2010 is now at N3.6trn in 2025.

It beats anybody’s imagination why the Rivers crisis is seen as purely a Rivers matter of just a Wike-Sim matter. It is snowballing to a Nigerian matter because when Govt House sneezes, oil facilities catch fire. If Nigeria has still not seen it this way, too bad.