The year 2024 is a jam-packed year for global politics, with over 40 countries holding national elections. The outcomes of this elections will have profound effects Worldwide. Infact global politics may not remain the same again owing to the outcomes of these elections.
Already the world which is just coming out of a pandemic is hobbled by the effects of the Russia Ukraine war which has already gone on for over a year. The ripples of the Israel-Gaza war is also affecting a source of ongoing tension.
But, new faces in positions of power could help trigger incremental changes, which ripple around the world.
The 40 national elections globally represent 41% of the world’s population and 42% of GDP, according to Bloomberg. It is obvious then how changes, no matter how little they are, would impact on the world in general.
More than 2 billion voters will head to the polls in countries including the United States, India, Mexico and South Africa and according to World Economic Forum’s Chief Risk Officers Outlook 2023, geopolitical volatility is the biggest risk identified in the elections.
To talk about some of the most significant ones, here is how elections in 5 countries around the world would impact the globe in 2024.
Taiwan’s election is coming up on January 13, and it has a potential for either increasing or decreasing US-China tensions depending on outcome.
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president, holds that his party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has successfully managed growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait under the current president, Tsai Ing-wen. The DPP argues that they will help guide the nation to increased autonomy and security through closer relations with the United States and other like-minded democracies, a publication by Kemi Adewalure on United States Institute of Peace said.
Meanwhile, Hou Yu-ih is a former police chief turned mayor of New Taipei City and is campaigning on fears around war with China but emphasizes that the KMT is better positioned to manage cross-strait tensions. KMT leadership has put this starkly: “Vote for the DPP, youth will go to the battlefield. Vote for the Kuomintang, and there will be no war on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
Indonesia’s upcoming presidential election on February 14, 2024, being the world’s largest single-day election, holds significant implications beyond just its national borders.
Indonesia’s strategic location and balancing act between the US and China will be in focus. A shift in foreign policy towards one superpower could significantly impact regional dynamics.
Also, the southeast Asian giant plays a crucial role in various global supply chains, from minerals to food products. Any disruptions caused by the election could have ripple effects on the world economy like in the case of Russia and Ukraine.
UK’s general election: While the UK General Election in 2024 – even though no specific date has been set – will primarily focus on domestic issues like the economy, public services, and immigration, its outcome could still have some notable global implications.
According to Huntington Post, the Conservatives are trailing in the polls though, meaning Labour’s Keir Starmer is widely expected to get into office. That would be the first time the party has been in Downing Street since 2010.
He is expected to improve the relationship between the UK and the rest of Europe in the wake of Brexit, and has vowed to provide 100% clean power by 2030 – following serious backlash over the Tories’ decision to water down green pledges – and plans to bring in 1.5 million new homes over the course of he next five years.
The nation’s role in NATO and its contribution to global security initiatives could be affected by the new government’s foreign policy priorities. A shift towards isolationism or increased focus on domestic issues could weaken its influence on the international stage.
The UK’s financial sector remains influential on a global scale. The new government’s policies on taxation, regulation, and investment could impact global financial markets and investor confidence.
USA’s presidential election: On November 5, 2024 the United States will have its election. All eyes will be on that election as it will be the last for the year. The winner will serve four years from their inauguration on January 20, 2025.
According to Huffington Post analysis, the Republican Party is yet to choose their final candidate, but it is widely expected that former US president Donald Trump will be on the Republican ticket against the incumbent Joe Biden will be on the Democrats – just like in the 2019 race.
Trump has been charged in four separate criminal cases and could be put on trial as soon as March. He has pleaded not guilty in all cases, but two states have already removed him from the primary ballot, Maine and Colorado.
However, if he does still manage to get into the Oval Office again, he has already hinted he would be even more controversial than in his previous stint.
He has accused immigrants of “poisoning the blood of our country” and has called “communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical-left thugs” “vermin”.
Trump has announced plans to “dismantle the deep state” too.
On the international stage, there’s a chance his presence in the White House could impact the Ukraine-Russia war in Vladimir Putin’s favour, while US-China tensions could skyrocket, too.
Russia’s presidential election: Vladimir Putin is almost definitely expected to win this election with a staggering proportion of the vote. As an authoritarian leader, he has been in office since 1999, the analysis continued.
Set to take place in March 2024, the Russian election is not exactly going to be a level playing field.
Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told the New York Times that the “presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy”, and that Putin would be “re-elected next year with more than 90% of the vote”.
However, Peskov later claimed his comments had been interpreted “in an absolutely the wrong way”.
Still, Putin has no main political opposition – his primary opposition, Kremlin critic Alexi Navalny, in currently in a penal colony beyond the Arctic Circle as part of his 19-year sentence for extremism charges.
Another candidate, former TV journalist and anti-war campaigner Yekaterina Duntsova, has been banned for running against Putin supposedly after errors were discovered on her application.
That doesn’t mean there’s no risk for Putin, though.
As Chatham House pointed out, elections where there’s just one contender up for office again and again means they still have to “match or beat their own results in prior votes to maintain a winning image” – that could be a challenge, considering the fatigue towards the Ukraine war creeping into Russia.
Still, a fifth term of Putin would strengthen and legitimise his efforts in Ukraine, especially as this will be the first presidential election since he ordered the invasion back in February 2022.
In that time, Putin has been declared a war criminal by the International Criminal Court, thousands have fled the country and at least 300,000 mobilised to fight in the war.
