Rivers political supremacy wars: Fubara and the 3 aces

…Two down, one to go

Three major factors and court cases will decide who wins the Rivers’ political supremacy wars and the winner is to be determined by who captures the fragments of power ahead 2027.

The eventual winner will control both the executive and legislative arms of the Rivers State government and maybe the 23 local council areas.

The person controlling these powers will decide what happens to about N76bn federal allocation and internally generated revenue (IGR) per month.

The political crisis in the state has pitched the state into two camps: the ex-governor Nyesom Wike camp and the Gov Sim Fubara camp. Wike, now FCT Minister, said he bought form for Fubara to contest and become governor and according to him waged wars against numerous camps to push the objective through to success.

He was said to have expected absolute loyalty and total control of the structures and instruments of power in Brick House. Many said he appointed almost all the commissioners and aides, named all the lawmakers, selected all the local council chairmen, and in deed demanded absolute power to decide what happened in the Fubara administration including who the governor met and who got anything from government.

The Fubara camp claimed the governor gave his godfather everything they agreed on, but that the governor wanted more every time. The governor said he was required to submit his ‘liver and kidney’. Some said it was a parable, others understood it to mean actual liver and kidney. Tongues were set wagging.

The Wike camp termed Fubara a traitor who allegedly betrayed his mentor and benefactor and allegedly resorted to embracing those Wike battled to make him (Fubara) governor.

The camps were set for a showdown which only would end in total conquest for whomever won.

Read also: I have not borrowed a kobo – as Fubara reacts to claims he ramped up Rivers loans from $80m to 203m

The three factors:

The political wars ended in over 12 court cases which were later coalesced into three court cases include: Legitimacy of the 27 lawmakers that allegedly defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the federal ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); stoppage of federation account and internally generated revenue (FAAC, IGR) amounting to about N76Bn per month; and legitimacy of the October 6, 2024.

The Rivers State governor and his loyalists have withdrawn recognition to the 27 allegedly defected lawmakers led by the speaker, Martin Amaewhule. The remaining four and later three led by Victor Oko-Jumbo declared the 27 seats vacant. Many cases emanated from this disagreement. The case is at appeal. Whoever wins it would take control of the Rivers State House of Assembly (RSHA).

Should Fubara win, he would now have only three lawmakers to deal with and most bills would be easy to sail through.

Shoud Wike and Amaewhule win, they would likely move swiftly to attempt to impeach the governor and hand power to the Wike camp. This case is the only one still pending.

The other case is about control of the 23 LGAs and their huge financial asset of about N12bn. This is the level of control of the foot soldiers who actually determine what happened on election day in each LGA.

Governors may stay far and calm and look innocent but they know what is happening in the wards and rural areas. They also mobilise crowds to attend political events that make governors respected as political power horses in their states. They often know what happens to ballot boxes and results sheets. Gov Fubara has won at the Court of Appeal on this when the Abuja division of the Court of Appeal voided the judgment of the Federal High Court, Abuja, against the conduct of the October 5, Local Government Area election in Rivers State.

A three-member panel of the appellate court led by the Justice, Onyekachi Otisi, held that the judgment of the trial court was delivered outside of its jurisdiction.

The last important court case in determining who controls Rivers State come 2027 is the case on clamp down on the treasury of the state.

The Court of Appeal on Friday, December 13, 2024, struck down the judgment of a Federal High Court shutting down the revenue allocation and other revenues to Rivers State.

The Court of Appeal which sat on many cases from Rivers State had reserved judgment in the matters especially the federal allocation matter.

The court had freed the allocation of Rivers State because the three-man panel headed by the justice, Hamman Barka, had ruled that the Federal High Court lacked jurisdiction on the matter.

There was panic in Rivers State when rumours held that the state was in danger should certain justices head the panel. All turned into jubilation Friday afternoon when news came that the judgment has just been thrown out.

The Justice, Joyce AbdulMalik, of the Federal High Court in Abuja had on October 30, 2024, ruled that the presentation of the 2024 budget by Gov Sim Fubara before four members of the Rivers House of Assembly constituted a violation of constitutional provisions.

She had described the receipt and disbursement of monthly allocations since January 2024 by Fubara as a clear constitutional breach that must not be tolerated.

She subsequently issued an injunction restraining the CBN, Accountant General of the Federation, Zenith Bank, and Access Bank from allowing Gov Fubara to access funds from the Consolidated Revenue and Federation Account.

Fubara, in his appeal, urged the Barka-led panel to overturn the lower court’s judgment, arguing for the vacating of the order barring state allocations.

The Court of Appeal ruled again that the Federal High Court had no jurisction to entertain such a case.

Fubara: two down, one to go:

Analysts say of these three sensitive cases, that Gov Fubara has bagged two (LGA election legitimacy and revenue allocation clamp down case).

Fubara won the case about the legitimacy of the October 5, 2024 LGA elections. This has made the 23 bosses at the LGA levels and their over 314 wards to be his loyalists though in the APP.

His victory over the FAAC and IGR on Friday, December 13, 2024, seems to restore financial power to the governor. With both powers (funds and LGA structure), the governor (Fubara) seems to have acquired huge powers already.

His voice seems to sound stronger these days.

The last Ace is the matter of the Rivers State House of Assembly; would that also fall to Fubara or now to Wike?

If Wike wins that one, it would create a kind of setback to Fubara but some observers say it may create a balance of power. Fubara would be forced to submit Bills and policies back to Wike through Amaewhule, something that looks most foreboding in the eyes of the Government in Port Harcourt.

Many say it would be like the Balarabe Musa government in Kaduna in the second Republic where no single bill or request got approved. Impeachment may be the only objective of the lawmakers.

Not yet uhuru for Fubara – Oby Ndukwe:

One of the media activists who knows much about the inner workings of the Wike camp, Obiaruko Ndukwe, cautioned against the Fubara camp going too jubilant. She admitted that though the Fubara camp won on the issue of withholding of the state’s allocation but drew their ears thus: “The same Court of Appeal lambasts the Governor (Fubara) for flouting and disrespecting the judgment of Justice Kayode Omotosho and that of another Court of Appeal on the issue of having no budget and for operating the state accounts without a budget presented and passed by the State Assembly led by Amaewhule. The panel of three Justices upheld that Amaewhule and the 26 lawmakers have the jurisdiction to file a suit against the illegal appropriation of the State’s funds being the lawfully recognized Assembly.

“While two of the Justices agreed with Gov Fubara’s lawyers that the suit ought not to be filed at the Federal High Court since it has to do with money belonging to the state, one dissenting Justice said that the lawmakers were right since the operating agencies particularly the CBN is a federal body.

“The suit was struck out on the grounds of filing at the wrong Court but it was not dismissed. This means that the lawmakers could file the case at a State High Court. Yet, the fact that there was a dissenting judgment means that the lawmakers can challenge the judgment at the Supreme Court. The money belongs to the state but the allocation is from the Federal Government and kept in the custody of the Central Bank.”

She insinuated that there was nothing to celebrate at this stage and called it a tight rope for Gov Fubara. “It is still a tight rope. Nothing to celebrate apart from the urgency in getting the allocations temporarily halted.

“Before I forget, the Court of Appeal condemned the decision of Governor Fubara to disobey the judgment of Justice Kayode Omotosho simply because he has filed an appeal at the Supreme Court. For now, it is a dance in the dark!”