Olumide Emmanuel is an economic and public affairs commentator. He is also a renowned wealth creation coach who, like many other Nigerians, is concerned about the present state of Nigeria as a nation. In this interview with CHUKA UROKO, Associate Editor, he highlights major challenges in the economy including the 2024 national budget which he says shows that nothing has really changed even though it is called Budget of Renewed Hope. Among other things, he also speaks on the federal government’s economic policies for which Nigerians have been made to become ‘cautiously optimistic’. Excerpts:
The 2024 budget is up and running as passed by the National Assembly and signed by the president. Some analysts say the budget is already in troubled waters given the adverse macro-economic conditions. What sense do you make of that budget?
Most times when I hear people talk about budget, they express expectations. But one thing that keeps coming to my mind is that we forget that nothing has really changed in terms of budgeting in Nigeria. The budgets that we come up with are not realistic because, most times, the budgets fail on many grounds at preparatory stage.
We have signed a lot of agreements and we have become part of a lot of decisions as regards what percentage of our budgets should go to some major sectors of the economy but we have never been able to achieve that.
Secondly, when you look at most of our budgets, when you convert them to dollars, you realise that we are just joking. Furthermore, when you look at the budgets, you find out that, most of times, when it comes to the expenditure aspect, government goes all out to implement, but when it comes to the income part, it seems not ready to do what needs to be done to bring in the income.
And like I have always said, one of the things that we need to decide on as a nation is whether to work for growth or to continue moving in circles. For instance, now, I think the highest part of the budget for this year is security. And when you look at the infrastructure part of the budget it is far below security. And when you also look at the portion of the budget for the people, it is just like two percent, and that is called budget of renewed hope.
When you look at the recurrent aspect of the budget, you will see a lot of stuff that will make you wonder if these guys are serious. Like I said before, this administration is doing the right thing, taking the right steps, but the result of those steps will take a while because there is what is called gestation period for policies to mature. But, if all the right things are done, then those policies will produce the right results.
The challenge is that most of those right decisions are taken without putting in place the right modalities to ensure that they don’t have the kind of adverse effects that they are having on people now.
What we are seeing right now is that while some good things are being done here, some negative things are still happening and, all in all, we are not seeing the desired results. But, I am very hopeful. There is a particular phrase that we have coined which we call ‘cautiously optimistic’. That means we are optimistic but, at the same time, cautious.
When you talk about the right things the federal government has done so far, you may be referring to the economic policies we have seen. In what ways have these policies raised citizens hope?
Actually, the policies are sending the right signals to international investors. There are some good things that they have also done recently, like the policy of reducing the number of people that will be travelling with the president. They are also moving some departments at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to Lagos, even though people are trying to politicize that. They’ve also decided that all the monies generated from crude oil will now go to the CBN instead of going to the NNPC. This is a right move because NNPC is just like one secret cult that they are using to steal our money.
So, in all, I think we should all be cautiously optimistic and we should continue to hope for the best. They call it renewed hope while our hopes have been dashed over and over again. Let’s also agree that something good will come out of this. Let’s be cautiously optimistic because when they break your heart so many times, you become heartless.
There is so much noise about the relocation of some departments in the CBN and FAAN to Lagos. If you were the president, what will you be telling people; does it even make economic sense?
Yes, it does. One thing I will agree with Nigerians on is that, over the years, politicians and our leaders have not done things that will make us trust them. So many people in the country have lost trust in our leaders. That lack of trust has affected a lot of us and affected the way we interpret every step that they take. But if you are someone that looks at things objectively without any ethnic, political or religious bias, you will see the good intention in what is being done. For instance, why would someone be spending money to rent a place when he has another place that belongs to him. It doesn’t make economic sense.
Meanwhile, they are just moving a part of the CBN. And if you go to the headquarters in Abuja, the place is overcrowded. A lot of people do not want to come to Lagos because political appointments have become a major issue. So, they are now trying to bring in ethnicity and religion into it. But, to me, these are fantastic decisions that are being made that will help us. Lagos is the commercial nerve centre of the nation. They are not moving Aso Rock or the National Assembly back to Lagos. So, what are we talking about? We are just being emotional and sentimental because we have not trusted people in the past.
Most times, these decisions are not well communicated to the people and that is why there’s trust deficit. What do you think is wrong with government’s communication strategy?
I don’t know if there is any law in Nigeria that says the president should not be talking, and why we should not have a weekly broadcast by the president and that it should be only once or twice or three times a year that the president should talk. When there is open communication directly from the president, it will instil value in the people and you will also not give room for people to come up with different versions. You make sure that the communication is effective. When people are confused, they assume and assumption is the lowest level of knowledge. When something is unknown, the only option for human beings is to assume.
Don’t you think the trust deficit in our leaders is rightly placed given that their body language does not give anybody hope and, sometimes, they behave as if they don’t care?
You see, the higher you go in life, the farther you are from the grass roots and realities of what is happening downstairs because you are trying to focus on carving a niche and creating a path for people to move. You now have to trust in the people that are there to give you the right information. What happens to leadership is that it is at the mercy of the information it gets. That is why the issue of communication is key. I am 100 percent in support of the fact that many of our leaders are not giving the right vibes that will help us to trust them, but they are also taking right steps. So, let us be cautiously optimistic.
Nigeria is passing through trying times with a galloping inflation that has rendered whatever is left in citizens pockets valueless. What measures do you think will calm this situation?
What are the things that cause inflation? When you have so much money pursuing so little products. The inflation we are seeing now is a further validation that we are not a production but consumption economy. The only way you can do that is to do a lot of things at the same time. Number one, become more productive. But how can you be more productive with the price of diesel and power with many production factories shutting down?
Monetary and fiscal policy also has a part to play in inflation. We keep talking about this multiple exchange rate. We need to ensure that we just focus more on production. You know that there are so many good things that we have talked about over the years, but the courage to implement them has not been there. We need to continue to produce. We say buy Nigeria, but when it’s time to buy cars, we go to buy Toyota instead of Innoson. When it’s time to dress up, you prefer foreign clothes, and when it’s time to eat, you eat foreign products. This shows that we are joking. So, inflation, to me, is more of a production and fiscal policy issue. It is also an opportunity for those that know how to play the money game.
The Nigerian Customs Service has set a revenue target of N5.1trillion, implying that they will squeeze importers. How is that going to encourage businesses?
You know that I am all for integrity. I am just thinking we should do things the way they are supposed to be done because one of the major challenges we have is corruption. I can guarantee you that majority of the goods that come from the ports are not declared. If they declare all the goods that come and they pay the normal duties that money will come in.
Don’t forget that the Jonathan administration started what we call the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and the Buhari administration carried it over. Don’t also forget that those customs and port authorities you are talking about have over 400 accounts. By the time you go to the port and they are giving you 47 accounts to pay into, you will discover that out of those accounts only 10 belong to government, the remaining 37 are for different individuals. But the TSA has settled a lot of those things even though we are beginning to see that a lot of those things are beginning to come back.
They are not going to squeeze anybody. If every commodity that comes in is declared and they pay the normal duties, the money will come. The challenge is corruption and manual labour. If everything is automated, you will see money coming in and nobody will complain. Automating a lot of things will settle many things in this country. It is manual labour that is giving room for human beings to play the game that messes up everybody.
It’s tough everywhere and the government is carrying on as if all is well, living in denial that all is not well in the country. How can we send the message to them that we are dying?
They live in denial because they live in a bubble and it is understandably so because they don’t understand the things you are crying about. The law empowers them to enjoy everything they need to enjoy, so why should they be complaining about the things that they are not facing. It is the people facing it that understand. But unfortunately, again, this generation seems not to understand that they are doing market noise that doesn’t mean anything. While we make all that noise, let’s also articulate them into a proposal, a petition, a policy or a document and then begin to push through the right channels, lobby and be patient to push and push more until everything becomes a reality.
For everything we have said, and for wrong reasons, everybody is feeling the heat. What survival strategies would you suggest for Nigeria and Nigerians?
Like I have said over and over again, principles are universal, but the application of those principles are personal, contextual and geographical. So, the principle of saving is a universal principle but in order to apply it, you look at your personal life, context and geography.
The principle of delayed gratification is universal. So, when it comes to surviving hard/complex economic terrain like we have right now, the principles have not changed but how we apply them is what we have to now look into. Personally, as an individual or family, we should look at our context and the geography of where we are and then we begin to know how we will navigate it. First step is to reduce your expenditure and increase your income. Simple, this has not changed. There is always a level you can operate from.
You also have to note that wealth is not sexually transmitted and marriage is not an economic empowerment. Both the husband and wife have a responsibility to the home and none should be a liability. The economy is tough and it’s going to get tougher, but we need to make adjustments where necessary.
