The purpose of this article is to take a closer look at Nigeria Agenda 2050 (NA-2050), with the hope of creating more awareness about the perspective plan, which I have already made references to in my last two articles on the need for a transformative 30-year perspective plan for Nigeria—for the very urgent reason that a cross-section of the Nigerian public needs to know about the existence of the long-term plan and its content. Thus, this article is not an overkill. Tremendous intellectual capital and professional man-hours are continually expended by national planning technocrats and administrators on producing brilliant economic development plans that are scarcely implemented or used as the roadmap for economic development, which is the primary reason little is known by the general public about the existence of these plans. There is a need for critical awareness by all and sundry that can bring formidable pressure to bear on government by a coalition of stakeholders for the adoption of medium to long-term planning if Nigeria is to catch up with the rest of the world.
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NA-2050 targets nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of $11.7 trillion and per capita income of $33,328 by 2050, based on the assumption of 7 percent real GDP growth over the period. (But we all know that Nigeria has not achieved more than an average of 3 percent GDP growth in the last 10 years, which is largely the result of the lack of single-minded commitment to achieving the goals of medium to long-term planning that we find in countries like China, India, and Indonesia.)
The key challenges mentioned in Nigeria Agenda 2050 that are responsible for our poor economic performance include “low, fragile, and non-inclusive economic growth and development, a high population growth rate, pervasive insecurity, limited concentric economic diversification and transformation of the economy, low productivity, and high import dependence. Other challenges include an unconducive business environment and limited external competitiveness, deindustrialisation, huge infrastructural deficits (transport, power), governance challenges, climate change, limited fiscal space, and high incidences of poverty, unemployment, and inequality.” These challenges remain with us today and are not likely to go away without a concerted effort by political executives at all three tiers of government: federal, state, and local.
“There is a need for critical awareness by all and sundry that can bring formidable pressure to bear on government by a coalition of stakeholders for the adoption of medium to long-term planning if Nigeria is to catch up with the rest of the world.”
“The associated broad objectives of the plan are to: create a stable and predictable macroeconomic environment by adopting policies that are consistent with raising domestic savings and investments; establish a solid foundation for a diversified, private sector-led economy, a more- resilient business environment that creates and supports opportunities for Nigerians to realise their potentials; invest in critical physical, financial, digital, and innovation infrastructure; build a solid framework and heightened capacities to strengthen security and ensure good governance; enable a vibrant, educated, and healthy population; effectively address demographic issues; and evolve into an economic hub in Africa and play a leading role in various regional agreements such as AU Agenda 2063, AfCFTA, and ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme.”
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NA-2050 is broken into six medium-term plans: National Development Plan (NDP) 2021-2025, NDP 2026-2030, NDP 2031-2035, NDP 2036-2040, NDP 2041-2045, and NDP 2046-2050. At the lowest level, each of the 5-year medium-term plans is to be implemented by an annual budget, which is the shortest-term plan. The long-term plan “is built on seven pillars/structures, which include proper linkage with the medium-term plans and annual budgets, progressive economic growth and development, adequate provision of relevant infrastructure, good governance and strong institutions, development of social and human capital, environmental and regional development and adequate implementation, communication, monitoring, and evaluation of the plan.”
NDP 2021-2025 was launched on November 10, 2021, which means it was technically a 4-year development plan. The plan aimed “to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025.” NDP 2021-2025 proposed an investment commitment of about N348.1 trillion ($841 billion at the prevailing official exchange rate of N431.89/$1 on November 10, 2021), out of which 14.3 percent, or N49.7 trillion, was to be provided by the federal and state governments, and the balance of N298.3 trillion (85.7 percent) was expected from the private sector. These were enormous amounts! And it was the first time the government was incorporating an aggregated private sector investment component formally into a national development plan in Nigeria. Three years into the four-year plan, it would be instructive to measure the level of capital investment that has taken place both in the public and private sectors. Developments have been taking place, but certainly not within a consciously implemented framework of the plan document. A great deal more would have been achieved if the plan was officially implemented. But the aggregate estimate of N348 trillion ($841 billion) was totally unrealistic. If we factor in the 75 percent depreciation of the naira and 16.8 percent increase in inflation rate since November 2021, the plan would have become nearly totally unfinanceable and unimplementable, and thus would have needed to be revised in line with current realities.
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The 242-page, 30-year Nigeria Agenda 2050 perspective plan is comprised of 26 chapters broken into six parts, encompassing all aspects of national economic development, including infrastructure (power and energy, transportation, science and technology, and digital transformation), human capital development (education, healthcare, food security and nutrition policies for a vibrant society), social development (population dynamics, water and sanitation, housing and urbanisation, environmental management, youths, sports, employment generation for a growing economy, poverty reduction and social equity, gender equity, and persons with special needs) and public administration (strengthening institutions for a stable and peaceful state, cross-cutting issues).
It is hoped that this brief overview has created further awareness about the existence and thrown more light into the content of Nigeria Agenda 2050.
Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos
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