This is the final part of the two-part article on setting Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the Renewed Hope Agenda. The eight points of the agenda are once again listed below for ease of reference. The suggested KPIs for the first three points were discussed last week.
The Renewed Hope Agenda:
Reform the economy to deliver sustained, inclusive growth.
Strengthen national security for peace and prosperity.
Boost agriculture to achieve food security.
Unlock energy and national resources for sustainable development.
Enhance infrastructure and transportation as enablers ofgrowth.h
Focus on education, health, and social investment as essential pillars of development.
Accelerate diversification through industrialisation, digitalisation, creative arts, manufacturing, & innovation.
Improve governance for effective service delivery.
Point no. 4, “Unlock energy and national resources for sustainable development,” is strategic to turning around the economy. The KPIs include: 1) boosting crude oil production; 2) minimising or eliminating crude oil theft and bringing an end to illegal mining of solid minerals; 3) expanding the production of natural gas; 4) the use of gas as a transition fuel to achieving net zero emissions by 2060 by prioritising methane emission reduction; 5) prioritising renewable energy; 6) optimising our energy mix.
“Adequate allocations to education, health, and agriculture will make allocation to ‘social investment’ absolutely unnecessary.”
Nigeria produced 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day (mbpd) plus condensates in November, 2024, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), compared to 1.4 mbpd in November, 2023. However, this is at variance with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) estimate of 1.486 mbpd. NUPRC’s estimates of 1.7 mbpd fell short of the 2.0 mbpd target for December 2024. The target for 2025 is 2.06 mbpd, while that of 2026 is 2.60 mbpd. It is realistic to state that Nigeria is on course to achieve these targets. With such impressive performance, it is evident that the effect of crude oil theft on Nigeria’s crude oil production targets is being mitigated. However, a great deal needs to be done in arresting the effects of illegal mining, where Nigeria loses an estimated US$9 billion annually. A KPI needs to be set in terms of billions of US dollars to be saved every year from effective solid mineral governance.
Setting a KPI for the development and use of gas as a transition fuel requires setting production and utilisation targets and prioritising methane emission reduction to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Nigeria’s gas production surged by 12 percent to 175 billion cubic feet by July 2024, which is a remarkable achievement. KPI needs to be set for gas production by May 2027. “Nigeria’s methane emissions in 2022 were about 235 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e),” which makes Nigeria the number one methane emitter in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 18 percent of emissions, using the most recent data. The KPI for methane reduction by May 2027 needs to be set in MtCO₂e, even as Nigeria commits to ending gas flaring, the major culprit for methane emissions in Nigeria, by 2030. There is a need to rebalance our energy mix away from an overemphasis on fossil fuel/thermal energy by increasing the contribution of hydropower, solar energy, and other renewable energy sources. KPIs need to be developed for hydropower and other forms of renewable energy.
Point no. 5, “Enhance infrastructure and transportation as enablers of growth,” requires setting KPIs for various segments of infrastructure development, including megawatts of power supply, kilometres of road construction and maintenance, kilometres of railroad construction and maintenance, and how many seaports and airports will be constructed and/or maintained.
Point no. 6, “Focus on education, health, and social investment as essential pillars of development,” requires setting KPIs for education, health, and social investments. Already, international benchmarks exist for education and health. The United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) has long determined that nations should allocate 26 percent of their annual budgets to education. Also, the Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4) requires governments to allocate at least 15-20 percent of their annual budgets or 4-6 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to education. The federal government has never achieved up to a 10 percent allocation to the education sector. The Renewed Hope Agenda should set a KPI for financing the education sector, which should be above 10 percent. Similarly, at the Abuja Declaration of April 27, 2001, African governments made a pledge to allocate at least 15 percent of their budgets to the health sector. Nigeria has never achieved that target. Adequate allocations to education, health, and agriculture will make allocation to ‘social investment’ absolutely unnecessary.
Point no. 7, “Accelerate diversification through industrialisation, digitalisation, creative arts, manufacturing & innovation,” requires setting KPIs for each of the components. Manufacturing contributed 8.21 percent to Nigeria’s GDP in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, compared to 13.59 percent in 2022. The KPI for manufacturing should be at least 15 percent by May 2027. Nigeria achieved 0.38 points in the Digital Quality of Life Index, ranking 88th globally. A KPI hovering around 60th position in global ranking should be set for May 2027. Nigeria ranks 113th among 133 economies in the global innovation index (GII). The KPI for innovation should be set at an ambitious but realisable level by 2027. A key factor for point no. 7 is a reliable power supply. An ambitious and realisable KPI should be set for power supply.
Point no. 8, “Improve governance for effective service delivery,” is entirely in the hands of politicians. This requires tremendous political will on the part of the president, along with the governors, the type he has been able to demonstrate in economic reforms.
This two-part article on setting KPIs for the Renewed Hope Agenda has revealed that much progress has been made already, but a great deal more can be achieved if President Tinubu can cause KPIs to be set for them, along the line suggested, and then much more measurable progress will be recorded.
Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos
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