Revelations about massive electoral fraud in the Democratic Republic of Congo divided foreign governments and regional groups, as African states scheduled an emergency meeting on the deepening political crisis.
A Financial Times analysis of leaked voting data on Tuesday showed that opposition leader Martin Fayulu was the clear winner of Congo’s historic election and that rival opposition candidate, Felix Tshisekedi, who was declared the victor last week, should have finished a distant second.
Congo’s constitutional court is due to rule on whether to validate Mr Tshisekedi’s announced victory in the coming days and the inauguration is scheduled for Tuesday, leaving little time for foreign governments to take a position.
The EU urged Congo’s electoral commission to publish vote tallies from individual local compilation centres. When the electoral commission declared Mr Tshisekedi the winner last week, it announced only the total votes for each candidate and provided no breakdown by province, constituency or vote compilation centre.
Maja Kocijancic, an EU spokesperson, said the commission needs to “work in accordance with the electoral law”. Congo’s electoral commission denied its results were fraudulent.
Few Western governments issued official statements, as many were reluctant to wade into a delicate political situation ahead of other African states. Congo’s foreign partners are still “digesting” the revelations, said one Western diplomat in Kinshasa.
Bubble chart showing that corroborating data sets (leaked electoral commission data and Catholic Church data) point to massive Congo election fraud.
In contrast, Russia — an increasingly important strategic partner for Congo — said it did not support an investigation into the disputed vote.
“I heard that the results of the elections in the Congo were doubted, and the French foreign ministry expressed a call for an investigation,” Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told the Financial Times on Wednesday. “They have called for Congo to hold another election, but we do not interfere with elections or the results of elections,” he added.
The South African Development Community, an inter-governmental group of 16 African countries including Congo, has called an emergency meeting at the African Union on Thursday to discuss the disputed election.
“The rest of the international community is waiting for the African response to recent developments and it is vital that SADC and the African Union come up with a common position,” said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo expert at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. She said the outcome of Thursday’s meeting would define how many other governments proceed.
Angola, South Africa and other regional powers had pressured Joseph Kabila, Congo’s outgoing president, to hold the election and leave office, but statements in the past week indicate that these governments are divided on whether to challenge Mr Tshisekedi’s victory. Edgar Lungu, Zambian president, on behalf of SADC, called for a recount on Sunday — only for his government and South Africa to reverse position on Monday.
Historically, the African Union and SADC have rarely waded into other country’s election outcomes, so any call for Congo to recount or overturn the result would be largely unprecedented. “The stakes are very high for both the SADC and the African Union”, Ms Wolters said.
The UN, which runs the world’s biggest peacekeeping operation in the country, offered a restrained response on Tuesday. The UN Security Council “welcomed the peaceful holding of the elections” and “noted that disputes have been lodged before the Constitutional Court”, it said in a statement.
With Russia and China, Congo’s biggest trading partner, likely to oppose stronger action unless African governments call for it, a more assertive move from the Security Council seems unlikely.
“The Congolese people can handle this on their own and it is important not to impose this or that agreement as is normally done by France, the US and other former colonial powers”, Mr Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister said.
