Diplomats in Brussels say there is one telling measure of the low reached in the Brexit saga: the political blame game has started over responsibility for a chaotic no-deal exit.
From the moment Britain triggered the two-year Article 50 clock on its departure in March 2017, the “cliff-edge” threat has been used by Brussels negotiators, both to exert pressure and kick-start national planning for the worst.
But this scenario, once dismissed as a theoretical doomsday outcome, has taken on new urgency since Westminster overwhelmingly rejected Theresa May’s draft deal, prompting her to seek a renegotiation just weeks before Britain’s March 29 departure date.
“My analysis is that we are really heading for the abyss,” said one senior EU figure handling Brexit. “We may extend to June. But it is coming. The risk of no-deal is huge.”
The drumbeat of planning helps those, like German chancellor Angela Merkel, who see the Brexit brinkmanship as potentially helping shift support in favour of a deal in Westminster.
But the EU is also adjusting its thinking and energy, with an emphasis on three priorities:
making sure voters do not find their leaders at fault for the costs of a hard Brexit;
mitigating the worst effects of such a crash-out, even if it temporarily bends some EU principles;
and, finally, working out how to pick up the pieces afterwards.
“A three months extension is likely,” said Rem Korteweg, a research fellow at Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. “But it is not to give the UK a shot at another agreement. It is to give the EU more time to prepare itself for no-deal. They will not say this out loud, but this is the calculus.”
GETTING AHEAD OF THE POLITICAL BLAME GAME
Brussels has long written off the possibility of convincing the British public. The focus of the EU27 is instead on winning the battle at home. The first challenge is ensuring Mrs May takes “ownership” of a deal, and that the public see it as being crafted around her red lines. For Brussels, with ownership also comes the responsibility for setting it right and securing ratification.
A senior EU diplomat said the “gruelling” call last week between Mrs May and Donald Tusk, the European Council president, hit a particular low when the prime minister suggested the EU come forward with new ideas to salvage the Brexit deal. Mr Tusk made clear it was time for Britain to step up with written solutions, backed by a sustainable House of Commons majority.
FLEXIBLE ON TIMING, INFLEXIBLE ON SUBSTANCE
Ms Merkel is concerned about being blamed for Brexit going wrong in the run-up to May’s European Parliament elections, which coincides with a clutch of German regional polls.
Other European capitals expect the chancellor to appear as accommodating as possible, without changing the withdrawal agreement save for a few cosmetic frills. “She wants to be seen doing everything she can to avoid it,” said one senior EU diplomat. “If it then happens, then that is fine.”
Her willingness to help may be most evident over a possible extension request. Ms Merkel and German ministers have urged Britain to take its time. “If on substance there is no flexibility, then you have to be flexible on process,” the diplomat added.
France, meanwhile, has raised more worries about Britain seeking serial extensions beyond March. Rather than draw out the process, some French officials are advocating a one-off, longer extension, especially if Britain seems no closer to being able to endorse a deal.
MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF A CHAOTIC DEPARTURE
For the EU countries with the deepest trade ties with Britain — Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, France, and Belgium — there are no illusions about how messy and costly a no-deal Brexit will be.
The EU has taken steps to avoid the worst effects, rushing through emergency laws on everything from transport rights to compensation for fishermen who lose access to UK waters.
But hard Brexit will amount to an overnight legal revolution, and officials admit it is impossible to be fully prepared to manage the disorder after Brexit. “There will be gaps. We can soften the landing, but there will be a landing,” said one of the main figures involved in Brexit talks.
The blowback risks have swayed a group of member states, led by France, to advocate a more pragmatic approach to contingency measures. “As long as the principles remain, I have no problem being a bit softer in important areas,” said a senior member state official handling Brexit.
One ambassador in Brussels said that the accelerated preparations were allaying some concerns about the worst case. “People start to say it’s do-able because it is not a huge snowball coming our way. We understand [the risks] better. It is bad, but the system is delivering.”
GETTING THE MOST OUT OF THE UK IN THE AFTERMATH
Two of the most difficult challenges of a no-deal Brexit — the Northern Ireland border and the hole left in the EU budget from missing UK contributions — are still largely sidestepped in public EU preparations.
The issues are so important and potentially so divisive they will be the last to be publicly addressed in contingency planning — and probably the first to be reopened with the UK in the wake of a no-deal exit.
Senior EU negotiators privately express confidence that the Brexit upheaval will force the UK to plead for leniency within weeks.
Guntram Wolff of the Bruegel think-tank says the EU should “refuse to make concessions on emergency measures” to soften the hit to the UK after Brexit “in the absence of a substantial financial contribution”. He puts the gap in the EU budget up to the end of 2020 at €16.5bn in total.
EU officials are also thinking through how to resurrect elements of the backstop plan for Northern Ireland — the main impediment to the approval of an exit deal in the Commons. The UK “would be back at the negotiating table in a significantly weaker position”, said the senior EU diplomat.
Some in Brussels are more cautious about the constraints to such aftermath talks, particularly over Northern Ireland.
“Day one, two, three of a no-deal exit would be a new world. It will be totally different. Britain will be in turmoil. There will be frustration, protests, possibly a general election,” said Pierre Vimont, a veteran French diplomat who led the EU’s diplomatic service.
“There may be many things that prevent efforts to calm the situation, or the British government coming back to say: ‘I was only joking, let’s talk and find a way out of this.’”
He added: “My feeling is that it will not be so easy to keep a grip on political events. We should not underestimate the disorder and destabilisation there may be on both sides.”
