The Economics of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Administration

In 2014, following the country’s revision of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures, Nigeria emerged the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world with about US$510 billion in GDP and about US$3000 per capita income as at December 2013.

This is a culmination of the economic progress made since the turn of the century and the economic policies, programmes and reforms of the last few years under President Goodluck Jonathan that helped consolidate that progress.

This is the economic background leading to what many consider will be one of the most keenly contested elections in the history of Nigeria as we go to the polls this week.

Come this Saturday, March 28, Nigerians will have their say on who becomes their president for the next four years.

Though there are 12 other presidential candidates, the choice is between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

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In the last few months, the focus of many Nigerians has been the divisions and polarisations generated by this political rivalry.

Our focus in this report is different.
We have carefully juxtaposed what we consider the long-term economic priority areas with the achievements of the President Jonathan in the last four years.

Essentially, we have sought, not only to understand the underlying economic philosophy of President Jonathan’s administration, but situate that understanding in the economic achievements of his administration.

In 2010, there were at least three critical economic challenges facing President Jonathan.

First, the economic uncertainty was palpable, as Nigeria was still grappling the unsavoury direct and indirect implications of the global economic crisis of 2008/09.

These effects culminated and reflected mainly in sharp declines in the value of oil exports, significant fall in public sector revenue, fall in remittances of Nigerians from abroad, rapid depreciation of exchange rates, and weak outlook for Nigeria’s medium-term economic expansion as GDP growth fell year on year in the period.

Second, though the Nigerian economy was recording relative above average growth rate of over 5 percent, the economic reforms that kick-started
the growth in 2003 had stalled.

The most comprehensive power sector reform Act, which is the Electric Power Sector Reform (EPSR) Act 2005, had been stalled and the sale of Nigeria’s refineries carried out at the twilight of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government had been reversed, signalling the return of a largely government-in-business approach.

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