The dust raised by the latest ‘indirect’ coup alarm by Lt. General Tukur Buratai, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), that certain yet-to-be identified soldiers and politicians were trying to infiltrate the military for the purpose of seeking a way to take over power through undemocratic means may not settle any time soon, as the matter has continued to dominate major social discourse.
The COAS had in a statement by Brigadier General Sani Usman, director of Army Public Relations, informed the global audience in general, and the Nigerian public in particular that he had received information that some individuals have been approaching some officers and soldiers for undisclosed political reasons, and cautioned such persons to desist from acts that can politicise the army, warning officers and soldiers interested in politics to resign their commission or apply for voluntary discharge forthwith.
But as Nigerian political commentators, analysts and observers feast on the subject both on the traditional media, social platforms and small gatherings, the views expressed by many Nigerians so far is that it is either the coup alarm is a calculated chess game to send warning signs to the Acting President Yemi Osinbajo or an attempt to set the north against the south ahead of 2019 presidential election.
Prior to Burutai’s distress call, information had emerged from the Villa that since President Muhammadu Buhari left again for London for medical attention, some politicians were allegedly preventing the constitutions from taking its full course by promoting an ethnic agenda against the Acting President, who they fear if allowed will perform better than his principal and subsequently outshine any candidate should he decide to contest the 2019 election in the absence of President Buhari.
A highly placed Source, who is familiar with the matter and claims to understand the intrigues in the corridors of power, also informed BDSUNDAY that some power brokers from the northern region, afraid of a repeat of the Goodluck Jonathan/Umaru Yar’Adua episode in 2010 are currently making frantic efforts to sign an agreement with Osinbajo and his southern political backers that he, Osinbajo, should only complete Buhari’s remaining two years and must not contest the presidency in 2019 in the event that President Buhari is not able to continue in office.
“The Yar’Adua/Jonathan episode is still hurting some northern power brokers who are now doing everything to prevent a repeat. That Jonathan later broke the agreement by reneging on his promise not to contest the 2011 election is a hard lesson that they are not in a hurry to forget. I can confirm to you that I know talks were at the peak the week Buhari left Nigeria for London, for Osinbajo to complete the tenure as president but on the condition that he supports a northerner to succeed him come 2019. But I can’t confirm to you right now if the southwest political leaders allowed him to sign the deal,” said the source, who did not want to be named because of his position in southwest politics.
It would be recalled that in 2010, when the late President Umaru Yar’Adua left for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, the President’s kitchen cabinet members, allegedly headed by former governor of Delta State, James Ibori and Turai Yar’Adua, sidelined Goodluck Jonathan, who was Acting President at the time, and the country consequently was thrown into constitutional crisis.
Adeleke Adedipe, operating officer, LEKOIL Nigeria Limited, opined in an interview with BDSUNDAY that Jonathan signed such agreement in 2010 because he was a political orphan, who had no political base, unlike Osinbajo who has the Southwest backing him.
“Osinbajo is not a political orphan. I hope you still remember how he was chosen to be vice presidential candidate? Even if Osinbajo wants to sign such an agreement, do you think the likes of Bola Tinubu would allow him? Mind you, many Christians voted APC just because of Osinbajo.
“So, Osinbajo has a base and thus, he cannot sign such an agreement with anybody; because the constitution allows him as a Nigerian to contest for the office of the President. Osinbajo is not of the same stock as Jonathan,” he said.
On the latest coup talks, Adedipe said: “Whoever is planning a coup at a time like this, when the world as a global village frowns at such an attitude, cannot remain in power more than a week if it succeeds before they would be pressured to take the exit door.”
According to him, “If anybody plans a coup now the whole international community will ostracise him and he would be forced to hand over power back to civilian government. That is the reality, particularly with a man like Donald Trump being America’s President. It’s not going to be easy. Even if Nigerians go on the streets that they want military government, the entire world is no longer tolerant of it. I am not asking anybody not to plan a coup, but can it succeed more than one week? The answer is no.
“The Chief of Defence Staff is from Ekiti; the Chief of Naval Staff is from Akwa Ibom; the Chief of Air Staff is from middle belt and the Chief of Army Staff is from northeast”, he noted, adding that the major security apparatus usually involved in military coup are not all headed by northerners, as widely speculated.
Also speaking, Gbenga Taiwo, a Port Harcourt-based political analyst told BDSUNDAY that the people that plan coup are usually in the armed forces, not in the police or the Department of State Service (DSS) and that if Burutai cannot name the soldiers who are allegedly involved with politicians for suspicious reasons, the alarm maybe false, just to ‘test the waters’ ahead of ‘something that may be cooking’.
“When Major Patrick Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu planed the first coup in Nigeria in 1966, the police and DSS were not part of it. It was just a group of five young majors, four of whom were Igbos and a Yoruba man. But today, the entire world is completely against military intervention in the third world. So, there are things Nigerians fight for that do not make sense to me,” he said.
Commenting on the hint that Osinbajo may have entered an agreement with northern political elites to complete the Buhari/Osinbajo presidency as President and not contest in 2019, since it’s becoming clear that health challenges could prevent Buhari from continuing, Taiwo opined that there are several reasons why Osinbajo cannot sign such agreement with any group, like Jonathan did which neatly scuttled his ambition.
Speaking with our correspondent from the United States of America via telephone, Ted Iseghohi-Edwards, director general, Association of Local Government of Nigeria (ALGON) and Secretary to ALGON Board of Trustees in charge of affairs of local governments in the country, said since the Buratai’s alert, Nigerians in the US around him had been reacting in a manner that revealed their sincere concern for leaders to always put the interest of the country first above their personal interest.
“I have never seen a country in the world, including the one I am in right now that is so blessed as Nigeria. The question on the lips of most Nigerians here right now is that is it really true that out of 190 million citizens we cannot really come up with one person who is not sick to be President? This is not good for us,” he laments.
According to him, while not advocating for the return of the military, both politicians and military officers should be reminded that it’s the grass who suffers when elephants fight.
“Whether you are a politician or soldier this country will outlive you and we will leave it for our children and grandchildren. Let us take care of this country and then, the country will take care of us. President Buhari’s health challenges have, to a great extent, slowed down Nigeria’s progress,” he said, noting that the Acting President status of Osinbajo is just ceremonial which does not allow him to hire and fire, as a president would have done.
“As Acting President, any decision Osinbajo takes without consulting the President would be seen by certain people as usurping the President’s authority. But what people don’t understand is that with age, you are going to have more health issues. President Buhari is a very good and a disciplined man. I am very sure that if he knew how his absence is holding the country down he will consider resigning; but the cabal who are profiting from the situation will not allow him.
“But if the President has been told repeatedly by his doctors that his health can no longer withstand the pressure of being a president it will be in the interest of Nigeria and for his own good to step down. We need a healthy president who can wield presidential rod to correct several anormalies in our system,” he said.
During President Buhari’s first long medical trip to the UK where he spent 49 days before returning in March this year, several economists, both local and international, had opined that Osinbajo who led the country in the President’s absence did very well which saw improved investor confidence in the economy.
Meanwhile, President Buhari’s absence is also taking its toll on his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), as it has failed to hold its long-overdue mid-term national convention.
“We want to conduct a convention which is constitutional and the leader of the party must also be at the convention, so at the time we agreed to meet with President on the issue, unfortunately the president had to travel out. Since the approach was first to the president, we all agreed to meet with the acting president still on the same process to agree on a date for the convention,” Simon Lalong, governor of Plateau State, told journalists penultimate Wednesday.
NATHANIEL AKHIGBE
