The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22 percent fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020, the latest data from the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) show.
The crisis caused by the pandemic, according to UNWTO, could lead to an annual decline of between 60 and 80 percent when compared with 2019 figures. This places millions of livelihoods at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
“The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy,” Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO secretary-general, said.
Available data reported by destinations point to a 22 percent decline in arrivals in the first three months of the year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57 percent following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders.
This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts (exports from tourism) and 100-120 million direct tourism jobs at risk.
The decline is also visible in the Nigerian tourism sector with over N12 billion loss daily, according to data from the Federation of Tourism Association of Nigeria (FTAN), which has urged the Federal Government to offer the Nigerian tourism sector N150 billion stimulus package to aid the sector’s quick recovery when the pandemic is over.
Although Asia and the Pacific shows the highest impact in relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact in Europe, though lower in percentage, is quite high in volume (-22 million).
In its further analysis of the International Tourism 2020 crisis scenarios, the United Nations specialised agency noted that prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate.
Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58 percent to 78 percent for the year depending on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and shutdown of borders.
“The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labour-intensive sectors of the economy,” Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO secretary-general, said.
UNWTO forecasts a -58 percent decline based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July, a -70 percent decline based on the gradual opening of international borders in early September and a-78 percent decline if normalcy did not return till early December.
However, experts see recovery in 2021 as domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand, according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey. The majority expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel.
Sentiments regarding the recovery of international travel are more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year.
