President Bola Tinubu insists his radical reforms are the bitter pill Nigeria needs to swallow to bring discipline to its chaotic market. Yet, for millions, this prescription threatens to plunge them into deeper poverty.
Take Chike Nwosu, a 24-year-old carpenter in Lagos, Nigeria’s bustling commercial hub. Since Tinubu’s sudden removal of petrol subsidies, Nwosu’s life has been upended. With commuter costs skyrocketing, Nwosu now sleeps on his workbench in the carpentry shop to save on travel expenses. His monthly paycheck of roughly ₦72,000 barely covers his needs, let alone those of his widowed mother and younger siblings.
The elimination of the petrol subsidy, which had kept Nigerian fuel among the cheapest in the world, has devastated Nwosu’s already precarious existence and pushed millions into poverty. This drastic move is part of Tinubu’s so-called “Tinubu-tactics”—a shock therapy approach that aims to inject market discipline into Nigeria’s faltering economy.
“This drastic move is part of Tinubu’s so-called “Tinubu-tactics”—a shock therapy approach that aims to inject market discipline into Nigeria’s faltering economy.”
In this concept, “Shock therapy” refers to a set of sudden and drastic economic measures intended to transition a country from a centrally planned economy to a market-driven one. These measures often include reducing state subsidies, devaluing the national currency, and liberalising trade. The intent is to rapidly implement changes to stimulate economic growth and stability. However, the abrupt nature of such reforms can lead to significant social and economic upheaval, disproportionately affecting the poorest segments of the population.
Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos known for his wealth and political influence, argues that removing the subsidy and massively devaluing the naira are essential steps to stabilise the economy. Under his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s GDP shrank in per capita terms due to ineffective, interventionist policies. Oil, while contributing a modest portion to the country’s GDP, dominates government revenue, highlighting Nigeria’s overdependence on this resource.
“Our economy has been in desperate need of reform,” Tinubu, 72, declared in a national address. “It has been unbalanced due to flawed foundations and an over-reliance on oil revenues.” Acknowledging the “hardship” these reforms impose, he insisted they are necessary “repairs” for long-term economic stability.
“Tinubu-tactics” has polarised opinions. Critics argue it is a return to the shock therapy of the ’80s and ’90s that will impoverish millions in pursuit of market purity. They cite recent anti-tax protests in Kenya as a warning of potential unrest.
Tinubu’s supporters, however, believe these reforms are the jolt the economy needs after years of stagnation, corruption, and cronyism. “These reforms may cause short-term pain but they are essential for long-term economic stability and growth,” asserts Adebayo Akinola, co-founder and president of Sabi, a logistics solutions company.
Regardless of potential long-term benefits, the immediate impact of these economic measures, enforced without the cushion of a robust social security system, has been severe. Fuel prices have tripled, and two sharp currency devaluations have driven the cost of imported goods through the roof, pushing inflation to a three-decade high of nearly 34 percent.
Food prices have surged even more, making basic staples like rice, milk, and maize unaffordable for many and escalating malnutrition rates. The Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that 26.5 million of Nigeria’s 220 million people are food insecure, with at least 9 million children at risk of wasting, a condition that stunts development.
Desperation has driven hungry groups to raid food warehouses, and deadly stampedes have erupted over emergency rations distributed by some states, a meagre attempt at relief termed “palliatives.”
As Nigeria navigates this turbulent economic overhaul, the question remains: will “Tinubu-tactics” usher in a new era of market discipline and growth, or will it deepen the plight of millions already on the brink? The stakes are high, and the nation’s future hangs in the balance.
