Nigeria's lost opportunities: The real cost of the India partnership

In an era where global economic alliances are increasingly being redefined, Nigeria and India’s renewed commitment to a $14 billion strategic partnership could mark a turning point—or yet another chapter in unfulfilled promises. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to Nigeria, following President Bola Tinubu’s September trip to New Delhi, has generated optimism about bolstering ties between the two nations. But beneath the ceremonial rhetoric lies a critical question: Can this partnership deliver tangible outcomes for Nigeria, or will it merely reinforce structural dependencies?

India’s outreach to Nigeria is emblematic of a larger geopolitical trend. As the second-most populous nation and a rising global power, India is positioning itself as a pivotal player in Africa, seeking access to natural resources, markets, and strategic maritime routes. For Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, the partnership offers a chance to diversify its foreign relations portfolio beyond traditional Western powers. However, partnerships forged out of necessity rather than equity often risk becoming lopsided.

India, for instance, remains Nigeria’s largest trading partner, but the trade balance heavily favors crude oil exports. Agreements on LNG supply, while vital, may perpetuate this pattern unless Nigeria insists on energy sector reforms that include technology transfer, local content development, and downstream industrialisation. Without such measures, Nigeria risks deepening its reliance on resource exports while importing finished goods—an economic model that has stymied its industrial progress for decades.

The promise of $14 billion in Indian investments across energy, telecommunications, and defence sectors has understandably been heralded as a breakthrough. Yet Nigeria’s history of foreign investment is riddled with unfulfilled pledges and stalled projects, often derailed by bureaucratic inefficiencies, corruption, and political instability.

“For Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, the partnership offers a chance to diversify its foreign relations portfolio beyond traditional Western powers. However, partnerships forged out of necessity rather than equity often risk becoming lopsided.”

To break this cycle, President Tinubu’s administration must demonstrate an unprecedented level of accountability. Creating an independent oversight body to monitor these projects, streamline approval processes, and ensure community benefits will be essential. Failure to do so risks turning these ambitious pledges into mere political talking points.

The Gulf of Guinea, plagued by piracy and maritime insecurity, stands as one of the most volatile maritime zones globally. Joint naval exercises and anti-piracy operations with India offer a much-needed lifeline for Nigeria, whose naval capabilities have long been undermined by inadequate funding and mismanagement.

However, partnerships in defence must be approached cautiously. India’s growing prominence as a defence manufacturer is promising, but Nigeria’s procurement strategy must prioritise long-term sustainability. Relying on foreign expertise without simultaneously building local defence infrastructure risks creating new dependencies that could undermine national security in the long run.

India’s pledge to share its CoWIN platform and provide affordable pharmaceuticals underscores its soft power strategy, but Nigeria must seize this opportunity to overhaul its healthcare system comprehensively. Building diagnostic centers and importing medicines are not enough; the focus must shift toward systemic reforms, including expanding healthcare access in underserved rural areas and investing in preventive care.

Similarly, food security—a priority highlighted in the partnership—demands structural changes. While high-yield seeds and agricultural machinery are welcome, the Nigerian government must address the root causes of agricultural underperformance, from inadequate infrastructure to climate resilience. Without a coherent agricultural policy, food security risks becoming another buzzword in an increasingly hungry nation.

India’s robust scholarship programs and virtual learning platforms offer Nigeria an avenue to combat its brain drain crisis. Yet, merely sending students abroad will not suffice; Nigeria must create conditions for these scholars to return and contribute meaningfully to national development. This requires investments in research institutions, competitive remuneration for professionals, and a clear vision for human capital development.

On the cultural front, initiatives like the International Year of Millets illustrate how shared traditions can foster economic and social ties. Expanding cultural exchanges to include joint film productions, literary festivals, and tourism development could further enrich this partnership.

This partnership between Nigeria and India arrives at a critical juncture. Nigeria is grappling with spiraling debt, double-digit inflation, and a fractured social contract. The Tinubu administration’s ability to harness this partnership for genuine economic transformation will determine its legacy.
For India, deepening ties with Nigeria strengthens its foothold in Africa—a continent poised to be the next frontier of global economic growth. Yet, this relationship must evolve beyond trade asymmetries and geopolitical convenience. True partnership lies in mutual empowerment, not exploitation.

The question is whether Nigeria can negotiate from a position of strength, demanding not just investments but also respect, equity, and a shared vision for the future. The stakes are clear: This partnership has the potential to redefine Nigeria’s economic landscape and elevate its global standing. But without strategic leadership, it could become just another chapter in a long history of squandered opportunities.

The time for decisive action is now. Nigeria cannot afford to let this moment slip away.

The Editorial Board

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