The art of decisive leadership in uncertain times

Recently, I sat across from a CEO who, just months ago, confidently mapped out an ambitious growth strategy. The numbers made sense, the market looked promising, and the team was aligned. Yet now, as unforeseen challenges arise—shifting consumer behaviours, supply chain disruptions, and regulatory changes—she hesitates. She’s waiting for more data, more clarity, and more certainty. But certainty isn’t coming.

“Leaders must train themselves to move forward when they have about 70 percent certainty, enough information to make an informed choice, but not so much that opportunities slip away.”

This is a conversation I have had many times with executives, business owners, and organisational leaders. The fear of making the wrong decision often leads to something worse: no decision at all. Leadership isn’t about having all the answers upfront. It’s about knowing how to move forward despite incomplete information.

If last week’s discussion was about the power of pivots, this week is about developing the clarity and confidence to make decisive choices in the face of uncertainty.

So how do you, as a leader, make sound decisions when the future is unclear? Let’s break it down.

The psychology of uncertainty: Why leaders struggle to decide

One of my clients, the founder of a mid-sized tech startup, found himself in a dilemma last year. A competitor had just launched a game-changing product, and his team was pushing for an immediate response, a risky pivot that required heavy investment. He hesitated. He wanted more clarity before acting. But by the time he felt ready, the market had already moved on. His company was left playing catch-up. This is the trap of indecision, waiting for certainty when leadership demands action in ambiguity.

Neuroscientists confirm that our brains are wired to resist uncertainty. When faced with an unclear situation, our default is to delay, over-analyse, and seek reassurance. But as Jeff Bezos’ 70 percent rule reminds us: If you wait until you have 90 percent of the information to make a decision, you are already too late.

Leaders must train themselves to move forward when they have about 70 percent certainty, enough information to make an informed choice, but not so much that opportunities slip away.

The decision-making paradox: Speed vs. strategy

Indecision often arises from two extremes: acting too quickly without evaluating risks or over-analysing to the point of paralysis. The best leaders find a balance; they act deliberately but not recklessly.

One effective decision-making framework used by military strategists and CEOs alike is the OODA Loop, which involves four key steps: observing to gather critical information, orienting by filtering out distractions and focusing on key variables, deciding based on available insights, and acting with confidence while remaining adaptable. A CFO I worked with applied this method when her company faced unexpected budget shortfalls. Rather than delaying tough decisions, she broke them into smaller, manageable choices and adjusted her strategy over time.

The key lesson here is that decisions don’t have to be final; they simply need to be directional, enabling forward momentum while allowing room for necessary adjustments.

Read also: Leadership: The legacy of transforming lives

Overcoming decision fatigue: How to strengthen your leadership muscle

One of the most exhausted leaders I have worked with was a high-powered COO whose days were filled with an endless stream of decisions, from hiring and product launches to financial planning. By the end of the day, he struggled to make even the most basic choices, a classic case of decision fatigue, the mental drain that comes from processing too many decisions.

To combat this, top leaders implement strategies to preserve their cognitive energy for high-impact choices. Some, like Steve Jobs, automate small decisions by simplifying their daily routines, while others delegate routine tasks to free up mental bandwidth. Effective leaders also timebox decisions, setting reasonable deadlines to force clarity and prevent over analysis.

Another powerful approach is to frame decisions as experiments, shifting the mindset from seeking the perfect choice to identifying the best option for the moment. One CEO I advised applied these principles by delegating 30 percent of routine decisions to his leadership team, which significantly boosted his capacity for high-stakes strategic thinking. The key to overcoming decision fatigue is not eliminating decisions altogether but managing them in a way that preserves focus for what truly matters.

Knowing when to hold and when to fold

One of the hardest decisions in leadership is recognising when to change course. Several years ago, I consulted for a retail company that was aggressively expanding its physical store presence, investing heavily in new locations. However, shifting consumer behaviour was driving more online sales, creating a dilemma for the CEO. Should they stay committed to their brick-and-mortar strategy or pivot to e-commerce? After analysing customer data and competitive trends, he made the difficult decision to pause physical expansion and refocus on digital growth. Letting go of a long-held vision was not easy, but within a year, their online revenue doubled.

This is what separates great leaders from struggling ones: the courage to change when the facts demand it. If you find yourself clinging to a strategy that no longer aligns with reality, it is important to ask: Am I staying the course because it is the right decision, or because I don’t want to admit it is wrong? If I were starting fresh today, would I make the same choice? If the answer is no, then it is time to pivot.

The decisive leader: Creating clarity in the unknown

Having worked with countless CEOs, entrepreneurs, and executives, I have learnt that the best leaders are not the ones who wait for certainty—they create it. They do not fear making mistakes as much as they fear stagnation, understanding that inaction often carries greater risks than a flawed decision. They recognise that decisions, once made, are not set in stone but can be refined, adjusted, or even reversed if necessary.

As you navigate the weeks and months ahead, consider what decisions you may be delaying out of fear, where you are waiting for clarity when action is needed, and what single step you can take today to move your team forward.

At the end of the day, the strongest leaders are not those who always have the right answers but those who have the courage to decide and the adaptability to refine their course as needed. That is the essence of true leadership.

About the author:

Dr Toye Sobande is a strategic leadership expert, lawyer, public speaker, and trainer. He is the CEO of Stephens Leadership Consultancy LLC, a strategy and management consulting firm offering creative insight and solutions to businesses and leaders. Email: [email protected]