In March 2016, just months after Buhari’s ascension to power, and based on his lethargic start to governance and the onset of economic recession of 2016, I wrote an article titled: “Buhari and the gradual squandering of hope”. While Buhari and his government incorrectly diagnosed Nigeria’s most nagging problem to be corruption, I had argued that it was actually institutional in nature and only a healthy economic growth can give us a fighting chance of creating prosperity and keeping Nigerians happy and believing in their country.
Buhari’s election and subsequent assumption of office were epochal events in Nigeria. His election gave Nigerians, especially the poor masses, and middle-class Nigerians renewed hope and optimism that the desired ‘change’ has finally come. Never before, since independence, had there been such a groundswell of optimism in our collective ability to resurrect the ‘crippled and sleeping giant’ of a nation and begin to position it to achieve its manifest destiny of being the voice and leader of Africa and the black world.
Even the markets initially responded positively to the peaceful transition of power in the country, but due to the government’s lack of decisiveness and direction on the economy, doubts set in and the recession began. For instance, it took the president over six months to pick his ministers and even when he did, they were so lacklustre they did not engender any confidence among investors. Also, in those early days, as the government claimed to focus on fighting corruption, the economy went into a tailspin.
Four years down the line, that hope and optimism that greeted Buhari’s election has been completely squandered and is now replaced by disillusionment and despair. From a record low unemployment of 5.10 percent in 2010, Nigeria’s official unemployment rate now stands at an all time high of 27.10 percent
Partly due to declining oil revenues and partly due to the absence of an economic team or programme or even an appropriate monetary policy, the country began haemorrhaging jobs and investments while companies shut down or cut production due to inclement operating environment or inability to access forex to import raw materials. The beleaguered currency, on the other hand, took such a beating it lost almost 100 percent of its value.
Aided by a thoroughly incompetent and compromised central bank governor, the government’s main response in the face of the economic malaise was to continue to defend an indefensible naira. Even now, despite the assurances to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will discontinue subsidies and spending scarce forex to prop up the naira, the government continues to spend billions of scarce dollars to subsidise the lifestyle of the rich and middle class Nigerians and create arbitrage opportunities for them to the detriment of the poor.
Four years down the line, that hope and optimism that greeted Buhari’s election has been completely squandered and is now replaced by disillusionment and despair. From a record low unemployment of 5.10 percent in 2010, Nigeria’s official unemployment rate now stands at an all time high of 27.10 percent.
But perhaps, Buhari’s worst performances are in the security and anti-corruption spaces that were assumed to be his natural forte. Nigeria’s annual corruption perception index has been on a decline from its steady 136 between 2014 and 2016 to a high of 148 in 2017. The report currently ranks Nigeria 146 out of 180 countries. Security of lives and property is virtually non-existent in the country except for high government officials as kidnappers, killer herdsmen, bandits, and Boko Haram insurgents now operate almost unchecked in all nooks and crannies of the country. Life in Nigeria, especially, outside high urban areas like Lagos, Abuja has become intolerable, nasty, brutish, and short.
Naturally, young and educated Nigerians are voting with their feet, moving to Canada and other western countries with clement immigration rules and where they could actualise their potentials. According to a report last year by PwC on emigration from Nigeria titled “Strength from Abroad: The Economic Power of Nigeria’s Diaspora”, almost half of Nigerian adults surveyed indicated their willingness to leave the country in the next five years. That figure is bound to have increased this year with the devastating effects of the CoronaVirus, the recession and the crackdown on peaceful protesters voicing their discontent with police harassment and brutality.
It is clear from the comments of Nigerians on social media and on the streets that the majority of the citizens have lost faith in the country and its government. Perhaps the only sets of Nigerians today claiming to be patriotic are those currently in government or benefiting from the unjust system in place. The majority has checked out mentally and are just waiting for an opportunity to either leave.
In 1984, when the economic immobilism of the Buhari junta led to the crippling of the entire economy, the junta resorted to barefaced repression to camouflage its failure. The same thing is happening now. The infamous decree 4 of 1984 has been rehashed and presented in various forms. Protests and dissent are being outlawed and leaders of civil society are being arrested and driven into exile. In Nigeria, sadly, the more things change, the more they remain the same.
