West Africa, a region historically known for its torrid love affair with a violent change of governments is at it again. Countries in the sub-continent have a shared history of military men meddling in politics.
After a short interregnum of democratic rule, a series of military coups have kicked out constitutionally elected governments in five countries in the sub-region and replaced them with military rulers, creating an ever-expanding ecosystem of coups and violence in the strife-ridden region.
The latest in a string of coup d’états was in Nigeria’s northern neighbour, Niger Republic. On 26 July 2023, the country’s top military leaders announced on national television they had overthrown the nation’s president Mohamed Bazoum, who was democratically elected in 2021.
Rich in uranium, but wallowing in extreme poverty, and buffeted by the vagaries of desertification, Niger, noted Ishaan Tharoor of the Washington Post, is at the nexus of a security crisis that transcends its borders. “To Niger’s northeast, the fragile, fractured state of Libya had become a “platform for transnational organised crime,” and an illicit trafficking hotbed for arms, drugs and migrants”.
The United States has about 1,100 troops in Niger, including a drone base, helping the country’s military battle Islamist insurgents linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
The French military has two permanent military bases in the Sahel region, one of which is in the capital of Niger, Niamey, which includes the main air base for the Barkhane Operation, equipped with 6 Reaper drones, 7 Mirage fighters, a combat unit that complements the French military unit at the base located near the area known as the “Three Borders” (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger).
For France, Bazoum’s forced departure would mark yet another setback in the region, only months after French troops had to withdraw from neighbouring Burkina Faso and Mali, effectively ending the Barkhane operation.
A change of regime in Niger adds to the political upsets France, the dominant colonial power in the sub-region has been facing in recent times. The coup is the fourth setback for French President Emmanuel Macron, who promised a new approach to Africa when he came to power in 2017, one based on a “partnership of equals”.
There is a long and dark history between France and many of its former colonies in Africa. France has become increasingly unpopular throughout the Sahel with loud anti-colonialist cries emanating from a populace opposed to the continued “meddling” of France in its former colonies, both in urban and rural areas.
One of the most palpable aspects of the decline in France’s role in Africa was the European power’s retreat and announcement of the end of Operation Barkhane, launched in 2014 to eliminate armed groups in the Sahel region in Africa and curb their influence.
This withdrawal is often seen as a shift in the relations between France and Africa, not just between France and Mali.
Operation Barkhane was France’s largest overseas operation, with a budget of nearly €600m per year. It engaged in everything from combat patrols alongside Malian forces and partner militias to intelligence gathering and training to local development activities.
A change of regime in Niger adds to the political upsets France, the dominant colonial power in the sub-region has been facing in recent times
The force, with approximately 4,500 soldiers, was spread out between Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. While its headquarters is in N’Djamena, Chad’s capital, it also has fighter aircraft and bases for intelligence collection and operations in Niger’s capital Niamey, Agadez, Arlit, Tillabéry, and several other sites, as well as around 1,500 troops in northern Mali scattered between the large base at Gao, others at Kidal, Timbuktu, and Tessalit, and more recently a base at Gossi closer to central Mali as well as the border with Burkina Faso.
In 2020, Mali’s army seized power in a coup, and resisted calls to restore civilian rule swiftly. Diplomatic relations between Paris and Bamako began to falter following the May 2021 coup and January 2022 push back against democratic elections. Macron’s announcement explicitly named the primary reason for France’s withdrawal as the junta’s unwillingness to solve its growing security issues. Conversely, the junta blamed France for its failure to keep its promise in their partnership. They then reported that Mali had no choice but to seek other partners, referring to their hiring Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group.
In 2022, the military government asked France to withdraw its troops from the country. The military regime asserted that the results of France’s nine-year military engagement in conflict-torn Mali were “not satisfactory”.
The complete withdrawal finished six months later, on August 15, with the last French soldiers crossing into Niger.
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Opposition to France is growing across the region after years of built up frustrations, and the tide of anti-French sentiments have helped the various juntas gain popular support in their countries. France has become a bogeyman for all that is wrong in the region. In 2022, Mali’s interim Prime Minister, Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, attacked France at the United Nations General Assembly, claiming they had “stabbed Mali in the back,” with their “neo-colonialist, condescending, paternalistic, and vengeful policies.”
The truth is that France is no more responsible for the problems in these countries as Britain is not responsible for Nigeria’s unyielding economic and socio-political challenges.
In January, the French were given one month to leave the country — a decision that followed a period of growing instability in the country, including two coups d’état in 2022.
France has also had to leave Mali and Central African Republic, raising fears of a domino effect across the continent.
France’s waning influence in the sub-continent and the Sahel regions is a product of several factors. The legacy of its colonial history and post-colonial paternalistic interventions have left a vinegary taste in the mouths of many. There is unconcealed anger at the former colonial power’s continuing military presence and financial power, as exercised through the CFA franc, across the region.
After the wave of independence in the 1950s and 60s, France still intervened regularly in the domestic affairs of its former colonies and for decades retained sway through business and political ties under an unofficial policy known as “Francafrique”.
General Didier Castres, a former deputy chief of staff during the beginning of Operation Barkhane, found that France’s patronising approach frustrated the Malian Government and local populations over time, saying “we acted like a big brother who would turn to his little brother and tell him what to do and not do. We’ve been the know-it-all trying to apply templates that weren’t suited to them”.
France is facing greater diplomatic competition from rival global powers such as China and Russia and regional powers such as India, Israel, and Turkey, which in light of the diminishing traditional influence of international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, are perceived by African countries as the new development partners.
In November 2022, French president Emmanuel Macron accused Russia of feeding anti-French propaganda in Africa to serve “predatory” ambitions in troubled African nations, where France has suffered military setbacks and a wider loss of influence over recent years.
Asked to respond to critics who say France exploits historic economic and political ties in its former colonies to serve its own interests, Macron insisted, “This perception is fed by others, it’s a political project,” Macron told TV5 Monde in an interview. “I’m no fool, many influencers, sometimes speaking on your programmes, are paid by the Russians. We know them,” he said.
“A number of powers, who want to spread their influence in Africa, are doing this to hurt France, hurt its language, sow doubts, but above all pursue certain interests,” he added.
Russia succeeded in weakening France’s position as the historically dominant foreign power in the Central African Republic. Moscow is keen to consolidate on that effective model.
While there are no obvious signs of Moscow’s footprint in the Niger coup, which was mostly motivated by internal matters, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit led by Yevgeny Prigozhin that is active in Africa, claimed credit for the coup Thursday.
“What happened is the struggle of the people of Niger against the colonialists,” Prigozhin said in a voice message posted in a Wagner-branded Telegram channel. “This is actually gaining independence and getting rid of the colonialists.”
“This shows the effectiveness of Wagner,” Prigozhin continued. “A thousand Wagner fighters are able to restore order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the civilian population of states”.
The great power rivalry between Russia and France for influence in Africa has seen heavily sanctioned Russia trying to burnish its credentials with African governments.
Russia, the European Union asserts, is also waging sophisticated and coordinated information warfare, grossly misrepresenting France, which has so far struggled to effectively strike back.
“There is no doubt that Russia has embarked on an elaborate propaganda scheme that is based on heightening some of the horrors of the colonial era,” Kayode Garrick, a former Nigerian diplomat noted.
“Russia has been pushing this narrative. If you look at the communique of the recent Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, you would find at the top, statements about Russia helping Africa to fight colonialism. So, yes, I think France probably has a point in being wary of Russia and blaming Russia,” he added.
Paris’s deficit in soft power in Africa is beginning to yield negative dividends. For decades, the country’s influence with Africa has been built on hard power: military and the threat of economic destabilisation. With greater competition for influence in Africa by European and Asian countries, Paris is fighting to maintain its fading footprints in the continent.
It is a fight it is losing so far.
