President Muhammadu Buhari marked his seventh year in office yesterday, Sunday, May 29. It was his last “May 29” as president. By the end of May 29 next year, he would have handed over power to his successor and become a former president. Coincidentally, by the end of today, Monday, May 30, President Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), will have selected his successor as APC’s flagbearer and, possibly, as president of Nigeria.
As I write this, it’s not clear who Buhari favours as APC’s presidential flagbearer, but he’s probably aware that the two events – the start of his last year in office and the election of his potential successor – have a strong bearing on his legacy. Surely, as President Buhari enters the twilight of his presidency, with just one year left in power, having spent seven years, he must be concerned about how posterity will remember him.
But whatever Buhari considers his legacy so far, his most important legacy would be who emerges as his party’s presidential flagbearer this week and, possibly, Nigeria’s president next year. This is so for two reasons.
First, the emergent APC presidential candidate, if he ends up as Nigeria’s next president, could either sustain or destroy Buhari’s “legacy.” And if his successor from his own party undermines his “legacy,” that would cause him great grief out of office. In February 2015, former President Olusegun Obasanjo was asked in London why he opposed the re-election of then President Goodluck Jonathan. Obasanjo replied that Jonathan was “frittering away the good I did.” Every outgoing or former president cares about such things: what becomes of my legacy!
Here’s the second, far more important, reason. From Nigeria’s perspective, not just Buhari’s legacy standpoint, whoever emerges as APC’s presidential candidate could, if elected president, be disastrous for this country. That too would sadden Buhari after leaving office and should concentrate President Buhari’s mind now.
Given how much he has been criticised for “mismanaging Nigeria’s diversity,” Buhari would commit a monumental error of judgment, bequeathing himself a terrible legacy, if he favours a Northerner to succeed him
Of course, there’s no cast-iron guarantee that if a president anoints a successor, nothing will go awry afterwards. After all, former President Obasanjo fell out spectacularly with his hand-picked successors, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Jonathan. In Britain, although Margaret Thatcher anointed John Major as her successor in 1990, they spent the next seven years of Major’s premiership in mutual hostility, hardly talking to each other.
Yet, that’s no reason why a president shouldn’t anoint his successor. Indeed, provided he acts in the national interest, and assuming he exercises sound judgment, an incumbent president should influence the choice of his successor. So, subject to avoiding the end-justifies-means approach of manipulating party primaries and browbeating every opponent, as Obasanjo did in hand picking Yar’ Adua in 2006, Buhari is entitled to steer his party towards his preferred candidate.
But who exactly is President Buhari’s choice as APC’s presidential flagbearer? Well, despite fevered speculations, few people really know. President Buhari’s taciturnity usually leaves most people puzzled. And on his preferred APC presidential candidate, he has kept his cards close to his chest!
In his Channels TV interview in January, President Buhari was asked whether he had any favourite as his party’s flagbearer for 2023, he replied: “No, I wouldn’t, because he may be eliminated if I mention him. I better keep it secret.” Inevitably, that statement set tongues wagging about the president’s favourite among the 25 APC presidential aspirants, each of whom paid a whopping N100 million for the party’s nomination forms.
Yet, one thing is clear. Buhari and APC governors will determine the party’s flagbearer. Furthermore, just as the governors deferred to President Buhari on his choice of Abdullahi Adamu as the party’s national chairman, they are likely to defer to him on who should be the party’s presidential candidate. Pragmatically, the APC presidential flagbearer needs Buhari’s full-throttled support to harvest his “12 million solid votes in North.” Thus, APC governors and leaders are unlikely to override his choice for the party’s flagbearer.
Governor Babagana Zulum of Borno State puts it succinctly: “Our leader, President Buhari, is very important in this political equation. We are still waiting for him to tell us what to do and we will follow.” He added that Buhari’s “anointed candidate will most likely fly the party’s flag in 2023.” That view is shared by many APC governors.
But it places a huge and historic responsibility on President Buhari, requiring him to exercise good judgment and act in the national interest, putting the best interests of this country above other considerations.
Clearly, the first question President Buhari must settle in his mind is whether to pick a Southern candidate or a Northern one. Given how much he has been criticised for “mismanaging Nigeria’s diversity,” Buhari would commit a monumental error of judgment, bequeathing himself a terrible legacy, if he favours a Northerner to succeed him. That’s inconceivable and I believe he won’t do it, so let’s shift the focus to the South.
But who will President Buhari support in the South? First, would he back a flagbearer from the South-East? Well, he could, but APC would lose if it fielded a candidate from the South-East while PDP didn’t. That’s the point former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia State has been making, and why he withdrew from the contest for APC’s presidential ticket.
Truth is, a president of South-East extraction can only emerge in 2023 if both main parties, APC and PDP, micro-zone their presidential tickets to the South-East. If only one party does, it won’t work. With the sudden withdrawal of former Governor Peter Obi from the PDP’s presidential primary, held on May 28, and from the party, it’s clear PDP wasn’t minded to pick its presidential flagbearer from the South-East.
But would APC pick its flagbearer from the South-South? Well, the only person touted as President Buhari’s favourite from the South-South is Rotimi Amaechi, former transport minister, who was turbaned as Dan Amanar Daura, “trusted son of Daura,” Buhari’s hometown. But Amaechi is a self-important politician, who talks loosely, lacks discretion and plays to the gallery.
Amaechi’s buck-passing, self-justifying, outburst after April’s Abuja-Kaduna train attack wasn’t ministerial, let alone presidential. He blamed his “colleagues” for not approving his request to buy digital security equipment, lamenting: “When you come with sincerity to government and your colleagues and people are stopping you, it’s annoying.” If he couldn’t persuade his colleagues to buy basic security equipment, how can he run the country? In any case, the Supreme Court decision last week ordering Amaechi to face trial over alleged N96 billion fraud wouldn’t help his chances of becoming APC’s flagbearer!
Read also: 7yrs under Buhari, a retired general, Nigeria’s security crumbles
Which leaves us with the South-West. First, Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State. There’s an exaggerated claim that Tinubu made Buhari president. This evokes a strong sense of entitlement – “payback” – among his supporters. They argue thus: Tinubu helped Buhari become president in 2015 and 2019, so Buhari should help Tinubu become president in 2023!
But Buhari would be utterly wrong to “reward” Tinubu with APC’s ticket and, potentially, Nigeria’s presidency. He is too powerful, too wealthy, too controversial, too Machiavellian, too divisive to be this country’s president! As the Financial Times once wrote, there are “questions about his age, wealth and origins.” That’s not the president Nigeria needs!
Who, then, among the remaining South-West APC presidential aspirants? Well, truth is, President Buhari cannot credibly justify choosing Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State or former Governor Ibikunle Amosun over Professor Yemi Osinbajo, his vice president for the past seven years, who, as Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State said recently, is “Buhari’s Number One confidante.” What’s more, Osinbajo is a far more sellable figure across Nigeria and internationally.
President Buhari is entitled to anoint his party’s flagbearer and, potentially, his successor in office. That offers him a historic opportunity to shape his legacy. But would he exercise right judgment?
