Rivers: So, why are we angry at Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso juntas?

The air in Nigeria at the moment is tense. There is tension in the air. Abuja seems to have stirred up a hornet’s nest in Rivers State. What may have left many Nigerians tongue-tied is the recourse to the military option in a democratic dispensation. Reasons must prevail, and prevail fast!

Since President Bola Tinubu clamped the state of emergency on Rivers State, suspending for six months Governor Sim Fubara, his deputy, Ngozi Odu, and the state House of Assembly, the question on the lips of many Nigerians has been, Is Nigeria now toeing the path of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso?

Legal practitioners have risen in condemnation of the pronouncement, with the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) at the forefront, saying that the president aired in his actions, as it was illegal for him to have suspended a democratically elected government on the excuse of internal political wrangling.

The president, while removing Fubara, installed a retired naval chief, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ekwe Ibas, in an alleged undemocratic fashion.

The thinking in many quarters is that if democracy has come to stay in Nigeria, everything must be done to politically resolve the internal crisis without recourse to the military. With the development on Tuesday, it would mean that Nigeria is now justifying the actions of the military juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. So, why did we traduce them?

Last year, the Nigerian government had come down heavily against the sacking of democratically elected presidents in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso by some military personnel who took over the reins of power in those West African countries.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), under the chairmanship of President Tinubu, had threatened fire and brimstone if the juntas did not return to civil rule. Despite the threats, the three countries have moved on.

The three countries have insisted that they are better off the way they are than what was going on under the ousted civilian leaders. Their major grouse was that their former leaders allowed their countries to be turned into a playground for some Western interests.

The juntas in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso said that the former leaders they shoved away from power were mere stooges and collaborators with foreign invaders that preyed on the mineral resources and left their countries desolate. Yet, President Tinubu and the ECOWAS said the military was no longer in vogue and that the countries must return to democracy.

For instance, in Niger, before the current regime decided to take over the country’s mineral resources from foreigners, French companies used to mine the country’s uranium and paid government agencies 80 cents per kilo for the uranium; then, they turned around to sell the uranium to the rest of the world at 200 euros a kilo.

So, when they took over, they went from realising about one billion dollars in uranium resources to over 300 billion dollars a year!

Yet, ECOWAS is angry that they sacked civilian presidents that were working against the progress of their own people and their own countries.

At a point last year, the military governments of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali jointly announced their withdrawal from the bloc after having been suspended by ECOWAS. The withdrawal took effect on January 29, 2025.

The looming apocalypse

If the state of emergency was meant to institute lasting peace in an environment where individual interests have stoked violence and made governance impossible, it may be a miscalculation.

This is the view of many Nigerians who have dispassionately reacted to the development.

The major downside of the pronouncement was that it did not make any reference to the instigator-in-chief of the crisis, Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Observers also noted that the tone of the president’s address was combative and targeted at one faction in the crisis. And because of its unbalanced nature, it cannot be said that Nigerians have heard the last on the impasse.

While it is too early to predict the consequences of the president’s action, it may have sent out a message to the international community that there is a clear political instability in the major oil state.

With a volatile peace, Nigeria is not likely to enjoy the trooping in of foreign investors to help steady an economy that has remained delinquent since May last year.

An ominous cloud is hanging above the state right now. A total destruction of the state and its economy is in the offing. The destruction is not about the threat by militants and Ijaws that felt hard-done-by by those who believe they are more Riverians than others.

Before the suspension of democratic governance in Rivers Tuesday night, Senator Bennett Birabi, a leader of Ogoni people, had warned that if Rivers State collapses, something would give.

The concern of many watchers of the development in Rivers is that for the next six months, governance would be on holiday.

The administrator, Vice Admiral Ibas, as a lone ranger, not having commissioners and other instruments of office, would only be an “O yes” man to the powers that installed him as against the Rivers’ people, in whose purported interest the action was taken.

What has happened in Rivers State with the pronouncement is the escalation of the political crisis. While it remained Wike versus Fubara disagreement, the air was still temperate, but the entrance of the Federal Government has given it another colouration. The reading out there is that Abuja wants to appropriate the state “by all means,” leveraging the crisis.

It has also sent a signal which could be right or wrong to all the states in the country that such could happen to them. What it would take is for a member of the ruling party to stoke trouble and amplify it to a level that Abuja may now declare a mini war and a threat to the entire country.

Suppose the major reason for the speedy action by the president was the attack on the oil facilities on Monday/Tuesday. In that case, observers have said that Nigeria’s mineral resources are being cannibalised in other states without the federal government wielding the big stick, let alone flogging the perpetrators.

No to the return of militant days.

Efforts must be made to ensure that the Niger Delta does not return to the days when oil production was disturbed on a very large scale by militants.

Some of the Ijaw leaders have continued to react to what they termed a caustic interview addressed by Wike in Abuja last Wednesday, and they said that “anything” is possible in the crisis in Rivers State. A few days ago, Asari Dokubo was on Channels Television, where he pointedly said that anything was possible.

There is also the question as to which of the camps may have been responsible for the gale of fire incidents on oil facilities in the Niger Delta. While some think it may be those sympathetic with Fubara, some others think it may be those on the side of Wike, who want to make the place so ungovernable as to attract the Federal Government to pronounce a state of emergency in the state.

The Ijaw angst

The Ijaw people of Rivers State have always complained of marginalisation in the leadership of the state. For instance, out of the 26 years since 1999, the Ijaw nation has only occupied the power stool for less than two years, being represented by Sim Fubara. Wike’s upland section has held sway for 24 years.

Since the return of Nigeria to civil rule in 1999, five civilian governors have held the reins of power in Rivers State. They are Peter Odili (May 29, 1999 – May 29, 2007); Celestine Omehia (May 29, 2007 – October 26, 2007); Chibuike Amaechi (October 26, 2007 – May 29, 2015); Nyesom Wike (May 29, 2015 – May 29, 2023); and Siminalayi Fubara (May 29, 2023 – March 19, 2025).

To fuel the people’s anger, the Supreme Court’s ruling, ordering non-release of Rivers’ monthly allocation from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), is being interpreted to mean that their enemies not only want to insult them but to finish them up.

They see no reason for being shut out from sharing in the revenue that comes from their land and the oil exploitation process that puts them at various degrees of danger.

Those who predicted the pronouncement of an emergency rule in the state on the prompting of Wike warned that such could be catastrophic. They recalled the chaos that the impeachment in 2005 of the late DSP Alamieyeseigha generated, leading to an attack on oil facilities that resulted in a sharp drop in daily oil production to an abysmal 900,000 bpd, a far cry from the 2.4 mbpd target at the time.

Wrong timing

The economic situation of Nigeria at the moment does not accommodate any disruption in the daily oil production. Nigeria is crawling out from poor output occasioned by massive crude oil theft. Now that the daily production is climbing beyond 1.8 million bpd, any further disruption would be disastrous.

Investors in limbo

Since he came on board as President of Nigeria, Tinubu has moved from one continent to another on an investment drive. Many Nigerians believe that 100 years of such drive would not move a needle as long as the environment is not conducive enough for foreign investors to come in.

The development in Rivers is one of those reasons that discourage investors from coming in.

Investment is all about right and positive information. Investors make decisions as a result of what is happening now and what they think will happen in the future.

Although the nexus between the Rivers State crisis and the attack on oil pipelines may not have been properly established despite the position in certain quarters, the information out there seems to be discouraging investors already.

Government’s body language is well read by those outside the country, hoping to come into the country to invest. It appears that the action of the government does not even help to secure the investments already attracted, let alone guarantee security to the ones expected to come in. Things need to change. Things must change!

The federal government’s narratives have focused so much on politics and insecurity, and these have continued to discourage investors. This consistent bad news that is not focused on job creation or growing the economy will not help the country.

The political instability in Rivers State is not good for a country seeking investment.

Investors would want to be a little bit cautious and see how the situation goes before putting down their money.