What Nigeria stands to gain and lose from a Trump or Harris presidency

The world is closely watching as the U.S. goes to the polls on November 5 to choose a new president during its general elections. For a nation like Nigeria, which shares close political and economic ties with the world’s largest economy, its future trade relations, investment inflows, and regulatory landscape could shift significantly depending on who takes the White House: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris.

At a forum by Udo Udoma & Belo-Osagie (UUBO) partnering with Mercury Public Affairs on Thursday, policy experts and U.S.-served congressmen provided some insight into how Trump or Harris’s policies could play out in Nigeria when either are handed the presidential baton. While both candidates’ approaches will create ripples across global markets, the implications for Nigeria may vary substantially.

Economic policies and trade

Trump’s protectionist agenda, characterised by tariffs and renegotiated trade agreements, raised concerns about the potential strain on U.S.–Africa trade. Between 2008 and 2018, trade between the two regions dropped from $100 billion to $41 billion.

A second Trump term could exacerbate these trends, especially with the looming expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025, which currently grants tariff-free access for Nigerian exports.

“Trump’s ‘America First’ stance could lead to higher tariffs and more trade barriers, negatively affecting Nigeria’s exports to the U.S.,” says Ashleigh Theophanides, Chief Sustainability Officer at Deloitte.

There is confidence, however, that a Harris administration will renew and improve AGOA to promote renewable energy. Since Harris seeks to strengthen relationships with allies, emphasising multilateral agreements like AGOA could boost trade with African nations, including Nigeria.

Financial investments and aid funding

Under Biden, the U.S. development, humanitarian, and security assistance to Nigeria approached $1 billion in FY 2023. Harris, who is expected to pick up from where the president leaves off will more likely support investments in Africa, particularly in tech and digital infrastructure, experts say.

Harris announced in May the formation of a new partnership to help provide internet access to 80 percent of Africa by 2030, up from roughly 40 percent now. Nigeria could potentially benefit from initiatives that encourage U.S. businesses to invest in the growing Nigerian tech and innovation ecosystem.

Meanwhile, Trump’s previous administration saw a decline in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa, dropping from $50.4 billion in 2017 to $43.2 billion by 2019. Should Trump return, they think Nigeria could see further cuts in US investments and aid, impacting key sectors like infrastructure and healthcare. “Trump’s isolationist policies may hinder U.S. investments in Nigeria,” they said.

Foreign policy

Trump’s foreign policy is expected to remain transactional, prioritising U.S. economic and security interests over diplomatic or democratic ideals. According to former Congressman Toby Moffett, Trump would likely favour direct, business-focused relationships with global partners, including Nigeria.

Harris, on the other hand, is predicted to strengthen diplomatic ties with Nigeria, fostering cooperation on trade, security, and development. Her administration could promote collaborative efforts, enhancing Nigeria’s role in U.S. foreign policy.

Oil and energy

Nigeria has remained Africa’s largest crude oil producer, but has recently been exploring alternative energy sources such fossil fuels, Compressed natural gas (CNG) for vehicles and power generation. Experts say that while Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance may benefit Nigeria’s oil exports, his focus on U.S. energy independence could reduce demand for Nigerian oil.

Harris, with her emphasis on climate adaptation and a transition toward renewable energy, may injure the oil trade between both countries, but open a window to accelerate Nigeria’s shift away from oil dependence. Though this shift could reduce U.S. demand for Nigerian crude, it might also help stabilise global oil markets and help Nigeria break into renewable energy sectors.

Immigration

There are up to 402,000 Nigerians living in the U.S. as at 2020, according to the World Migration Report. In this election, 61 percent of American voters say immigration is a priority for them according to the Pew Research Centre.

“We believe that immigration should be regulated as it always has particularly on our struggling border but we don’t in scape-goating and characterising people who are trying to fight for their rights and their families and their children as animals,” says Moffett, who is confident that a Harris administration would favour liberal immigration policies and support for student and professional visas.

As president, in 2017, Trump issued a controversial order banning the admission of travellers, immigrants, and refugees from seven Muslim-majority nations, which later expanded to thirteen in 2020. As Trump’s crackdown on immigration continues, experts are concerned his presidency could tighten immigration policies, making it harder for Nigerians to move to the U.S., which could potentially impact the Nigerian diaspora’s contributions through remittances, which already saw a decline last year.