Nigeria’s agricultural production will likely increase this year as security improves in food-belt areas, farmers say.
They note that the likely improvement in food production will lower inflation and reduce the nation’s cost-of-living crisis.
“We have seen some respite in insecurity and kidnapping. Killings have reduced, especially from mid-2024,” said Sani Danladi, national chairman of the Association of Tomato Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria, in response to questions.
Danladi noted that the current situation has translated to a favourable dry season planting season for farmers in late 2024, noting that food production will increase and prices decline if sustained in 2025.
Read also: Nigerians in ‘survival mode’ as hard times persist, food inflation worsens
“When we have high food production, prices will decline,” he noted.
For over a decade, insecurity has negatively impacted the food production in Africa’s most populous country, cutting output by 60 percent and causing a supply shortfall and import surge.
Over 1,356 farmers in northern Nigeria lost their lives to banditry attacks between 2020 and 2024, an SMB Intelligence report said. Global Human Rights Nigeria disclosed in 2024 that 24,816 people, including farmers, were killed and 15,597 kidnapped in Africa’s most populous nation in the last five years.
However, activities of banditry, terrorism and killings have reduced, causing the country to recently lift a five-year mining exploration ban in Zamfara – a top agrarian state.
“The security operatives’ giant strides have led to a notable reduction in the level of insecurity, and with the ban on exploration lifted, Zamfara’s mining sector can gradually begin contributing to the nation’s revenue pool,” Dele Alake, mining minister, said in a December statement.
Ibrahim Kabiru, national president of the All Farmers Association (AFAN), said that there is some respite in insecurity, noting that several farmers will return to their farms if the situation is sustained.
“There is some respite in insecurity and we have seen the success achieved by the military. If sustained, more farmers would return to their farms.”
Kabiru noted that the country’s food crisis is down to a combination of factors, ranging from insecurity to the impact of climate change, to the high cost of inputs and infrastructural gaps.
He noted that food price stabilisation and reduction do not solely depend on the abating insecurity but on deliberate effort to tackle several factors hindering productivity.
“The macroeconomic instability causing volatility in the country and multiple natural hazards are driving food insecurity trends in Nigeria,” he said.
He expressed optimism on the budgetary allocation of N826.5 billion for the sector, saying that it is encouraging and will support smallholder farmers to boost production.
Nigerians paid an estimated N2.3 trillion as ransom from May 2023 to April 2024, according to a 2024 survey by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The SBM Intelligence report said farmers paid about N1.19 billion as ransoms to bandits.
Amir Idris, an onion farmer and the secretary of the National Onion Producers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria, Kaduna chapter, said bandits in some local government areas in Kaduna are beginning to surrender, noting that it is an indication of a safer farming season for farmers in 2025.
“I believe that improved security will be sustained and farmers will commence cultivating in areas they have abandoned due to fear of being killed or kidnapped,” Amir said.
“Farmers are already going back to those areas and more will do so when it is maintained,” he explained.
He noted that food prices are already dropping while some have remained relatively stable since December. “We can see that from December 2024 to now, food prices have been stable,” he said.
Read also: Security seen driving food production in 2025
Security may not impact food production
However, Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner of Prasinos Farms, said the current respite may not translate to increased production as there are other factors affecting food production.
According to him, until active steps are taken to advance irrigation technology, Nigeria might see a repeat of last year in terms of surging food costs.
“Last year, we had issues of flooding and climate change that affected food production. Now what new thing has the federal government done to reduce dependence on rainfall?” he asked.
He urged Nigerians to prepare for rising food prices, noting that “most of the issues we had last year like flooding and excessive droughts in parts of the north will be the same experience in 2025.”
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