Ageing trees, pest attacks driving Africa’s cocoa shortfall

Ageing trees, climate change and disease outbreak are major setbacks affecting cocoa production in Africa where over 70 percent of the commodity is grown, according to a new report.

According to a report by Afreximbank titled ‘Afreximbank Research Commodity Market Updates’, Ivory Coast and Ghana, global top supplier of cocoa, have seen its production faced a series of disruptions ranging from adverse weather conditions to ageing trees.

The report established that supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbated by logistical challenges and shifts in farmer incentives, have added to the volatility, heightening concerns over long-term production capacity.

“Forecasts point to a decline in Ghana’s cocoa yields over the long term, driven largely by ageing cocoa trees, with approximately one-quarter of the country’s 2 million cocoa hectares estimated to be over 40 years old,” it noted.

The report revealed that older trees have significantly lower yields, making replanting essential for sustaining production. However, it explained that the process of farm renewal is slow and costly and is compounding supply pressures in the market.

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Also, many farmers often resist replanting due to the 5–10 years of lost earnings before trees reach full productivity.

Afreximbank noted that adverse weather conditions have partly fanned the relentless surge in cocoa prices, adding that at the start of 2024, severe harmattan winds swept across West Africa, significantly reducing cocoa arrivals at ports in the two countries.

In the space of two years, owing to weather challenges and other factors, Ghana’s cocoa production fell 37 percent to 429,323 metric tons in 2023/2024 season from 683,269 tons in 2022/2023 season.

“The changing weather patterns continues to raise concern that the 2024/25 season could witness an earlier onset of Harmattan conditions,

particularly in Côte d’Ivoire, potentially amplifying price volatility in an already bullish market,” the report revealed.

Similarly, the rise of illegal gold mining in Ghana is contributing to its cocoa production shortfall. Due to what is referred to as galamsey — gather and sell — illegal miners encroach on cocoa farms in search of gold, further disrupting cultivation activities.

According to the report, this small-scale mining boom has encroached on cocoa farms, posing significant risks to both cocoa production and the environment.

These disruptions drove global cocoa prices to record highs of over $12 million last year.

Looking ahead for the 2024/2025 season, the report noted that the future is looking bright for Cote d’Ivoire as in December of 2024 cocoa arrivals were reported to have increased by 27.4 percent to 1.05 million tons in the ports.

While Ghana recorded a staggering 57 percent rise in graded and sealed beans to 366,075 tonnes by mid-December.

“The recent cocoa price rally has once again underscored the structural imbalance in the global cocoa market—despite Africa accounting for over

75 percent of global production, price discovery and trading remain predominantly concentrated in offshore exchanges, limiting producer influence over pricing mechanisms,” Afreximbank noted.