Nigeria joins African peers as Middle East crisis raises inflation for first time in 12 months

Nigeria has ended its 11-month disinflation streak, with headline inflation rising for the first time since last year March, signalling renewed price pressures across Africa’s most populous nation.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that annual inflation climbed to 15.38 percent last month, up from 15.06 percent in February, placing Nigeria alongside Egypt, Zimbabwe and Kenya where inflation has also begun to trend higher.

The uptick reflects renewed pressures from rising food and energy costs, reversing a period of steady easing in prices.

Food inflation—the largest component of the consumer basket—accelerated for the second consecutive month to 14.31 percent, up from 12.12 percent in February. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 4.2 percent, marking the sharpest increase since January 2025.

“The CPI increased to 135.4 in March 2026, reflecting a 5.4-point increase from the preceding month (130.0),” the apex statistics office said.

Oil shock drives renewed price pressures

The rebound in inflation comes amid heightened global uncertainty triggered by escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

Benchmark oil prices surged above $100 per barrel following the outbreak of the conflict in February, briefly easing after a ceasefire announcement last week before rebounding on renewed tensions after US President Donald Trump signalled plans to impose a naval blockade on Iran.

For fuel-importing African economies such as Nigeria, the impact has been immediate. Rising pump prices are feeding into higher transport, food and production costs, eroding purchasing power and threatening to reverse recent disinflation gains.

The NBS report also revealed that month-on-month inflation accelerated sharply to 4.18 percent, nearly double the level recorded in February.

According to the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), last month Consumer Price Index report highlights a critical development in the country’s  inflation trajectory, where the earlier gains in disinflation are now being threatened by a resurgence of cost-driven pressures, particularly from energy, food and transportation.

“This emerging trend suggests that while inflation had been moderating on a year-on-year basis, underlying structural vulnerabilities remain largely unresolved, with recent month-on-month increases pointing to renewed price momentum,” Muda Yusuf, founder and CEO of CPPE said in a note on Wednesday.

He added that the situation calls for urgent and targeted policy responses, as failure to address these supply-side drivers could reverse the fragile stability achieved and deepen the cost-of-living challenges facing households and businesses. “While disinflation trends remain evident on a year-on-year basis, the resurgence of monthly inflation pressures signals that macroeconomic stability is still fragile.”

Yusuf noted that the policy response must therefore shift from a narrow focus on monetary tools to a broader strategy that addresses the structural drivers of inflation, particularly in energy, food and
transportation.

Without decisive action in these areas, the gains recorded in inflation moderation may prove
temporary, while households and businesses continue to grapple with significant cost
pressures.

Mixed inflation trends across Africa

Across the continent, inflation trends are becoming increasingly divergent.

While countries such as Ghana, Ethiopia, Angola and Mauritius continue to record disinflation, the pace of improvement has slowed significantly.

Single-digit inflation economies—including Ghana (3.2 percent), Ethiopia (9.4 percent), Mauritius (2.7 percent) and Zambia (7.1 percent)—have maintained declines, albeit at a moderating pace, according to Trading Economics data.

Tanzania has remained relatively stable, with inflation at a nine-month low of 3.2 percent, while Angola’s inflation eased to 12.42 percent, marking its 21st consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since July 2023.

But inflation is rising again in several economies. Egypt’s inflation climbed to 13.6 percent, while Kenya and Zimbabwe both recorded 4.4 percent, reflecting the pass-through from higher fuel costs.

The World Bank has warned that inflation risks across the continent remain skewed to the upside.

“However, upside risks to inflation remain—global uncertainty, higher fuel and food prices as well as a stronger dollar stemming from conflict in the Middle East, and domestic fiscal slippage could reignite inflationary pressures and slow, or even reverse, the normalization of monetary policy,” the World Bank said in its latest Africa Economic Update.