Each year, Nigeria’s federal government sets ambitious revenue targets. And year after year, those ambitions fall short. Despite a decade of warnings from economists and international financial institutions, Africa’s fourth-largest economy faces the same dilemma: unrealistic projections, structural weaknesses, and widening fiscal deficits. The pattern is clear. Between 2015 and 2022, the federal government repeatedly missed its revenue targets. That trend reversed in 2023, with actual collections slightly surpassing projections. Full-year