Opposition’s current state too weak to present formidable challenge in 2027

…As Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso strategise to defeat incumbent

As the opposition politicians intensify moves to form an alliance against incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s yet-to-be-declared re-election dream, there are concerns the plan to stop the incumbent may fail because major political actors could disagree on a consensus presidential candidate for the 2027 general election.

Many political analysts say that recent moves by the opposition to form an alliance against the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general election, should immediately decide on an arrangement on who would fly the coalition presidential flag, that such would not arise and disintegrate the merger in future.

Although President Tinubu has not publicly declared his re-election bid, it is public knowledge across Nigeria that he is nursing a second-term ambition.

In recent weeks, there have been reports that major key opposition politicians including Atiku Abubakar, the 2023 presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, among several politicians, are reportedly in advance stage of merger talk at forming a new political party or adopting any existing political party in the country ahead of 2027.

The planned alliance could be an indication that the opposition politicians have learned their lesson after tasting defeat from the APC in the 2023 general election after they failed to agree to an alliance and work with a common front against the ruling party and its candidate Tinubu.

However, there are fears in some quarters that since major political actors’ quest is all to seize power, it may be herculean task for some of them to drop their ambition, while the wrong choice of presidential candidate could also work against the coalition chances of defeating President Tinubu at the poll in 2027 presidential poll.

“Would they agree on a consensus candidate? It is only when they agree on a consensus candidate that such an alliance may work. It may not work because all those guys are all to seize power and may not want to step down for each other.

“I fear that the alliance may fail if they choose a candidate with a controversial history, which the APC could easily have issues to campaign against such individual,” Kunle OKunade, political analyst told BusinessDay.

Speaking further, he noted that it was normal in a democracy for the opposition to come together to challenge the ruling party, but warned that it may not be easy considering Nigeria’s peculiar political terrain.

“It is not new across democracy in the world we see opposition form alliances against the ruling party, but they have to be strategy, in this case; many things have to be put into consideration due to the kind of politics we play here,” the political analyst added.

For many the APC, the ruling party, knowing the implication of such an alliance would be well prepared for such and could do anything to scuttle the arrangement. They warned that the opposition coalition should be prepared for such intrigues.

Moreover, for some Nigerians, it was the turn of Southern Nigeria to rule the country, they warned that any opposition alliance that would zone the presidency to Northern Nigeria after the former President Muhammadu Buhari had ruled the country for eight years may not succeed.

Read also: Deltans kick as politicians commence activities ahead 2027 election

But this view was dismissed by some Nigerians, who say that the issue was not about the zone the president hails from, but about providing good governance and accountability while in government.

“If it is a merger that would work against the APC for them to be defeated in 2027, I welcome that; what have they done? See the way the country is now; to eat is a problem. For me, it is not about where the President is from, it is about providing good governance and Tinubu is not the answer,” Timothy Iwani, an educationist, said.

However, Temitope Musowo, public policy analyst and public affairs commentator said it was too early to say or predict the success of any alliance now, noting that it depends on many factors which could work against the coalition. He wondered who would be nominated as the coalition presidential candidate in view of the zoning arrangement in the country.

“Don’t forget the President is from Southern Nigeria, so are they going to bring someone from Northern Nigeria against the zoning arrangement? Even though the PDP is in disarray, the APC has planted Wike to disrupt that party and many other moles would be planted in such an alliance ahead of 2027.

“So, I see trouble ahead, this is a game the APC guys can play well, we have seen them do that over the years. What I am saying is that they should be prepared for the trouble days that would come. We would begin to see court cases from moles coming up against arrangement in the merger”, he said.

Speaking recently on such a merger, media aide to Obi, Umar Ibrahim, declared that his principal and the former Vice President, Atiku, are open to forming an alliance against the administration of the APC.

He noted that Peter Obi is committed to a better Nigeria and would be willing to collaborate with anyone who shared his vision, as long as their desire was not state capture.

He said, “This dedication stems from his unshakeable optimism in the country’s potential and his focus on the welfare and prosperity of all citizens. it’s clear that both leaders are open to working together to save Nigeria from the APC-led administration’s tyranny.

“However, Obi’s commitment to collaboration isn’t limited to any particular individual or party.”

Also, Peter Ahmeh, national secretary to the opposition political parties in Nigeria under the aegis of the Coalition of United Political Parties and the Social Democratic Party (CUPP), said the country needed more than a coalition between Atiku and Peter Obi.

Ahmeh acknowledged that a coalition could aid opposition parties in defeating the APC and must focus on ensuring free and fair elections.

“Yes, a coalition can help the opposition party defeat the APC. There’s no doubt about that. It will also facilitate the easy defeat of the APC.

“But the most important coalition we need at this moment is one that ensures elections are free and fair.

“Because if we do that, even when people form a coalition, we still face the problem of draconian leadership that can cause glitches in the server, or manipulate election results without proper authority behind it. The solution is that our elections should be decided by the polling unit”.

Sly Ezeokenwa, national chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), expressed his readiness to form an alliance with other progressive political forces across party lines to build Nigeria

He said, “APGA proudly has elected representatives within and outside the South East. We are ready and willing to work with all other progressives to build Nigeria because we believe in our country.

“As part of our commitment to reconciliation, we have granted amnesty to party members who are genuinely repentant, irrespective of which side they supported during the crisis.”

Speaking recently, Deji Adeyanju, human rights lawyer and activist, expressed doubts about the success of the opposition merger to unseat President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

Adeyanju noted that the major opposition parties missed opportunities during the 2023 presidential election by failing to unite and present a unified candidate to defeat Tinubu.

He said it would be difficult for any opposition alliance to defeat Tinubu in 2027 because there was a state capture of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), stressing that recent off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Edo had proved that Tinubu was not interested in losing the election.

Read also: There’s vacancy in Aso Rock in 2027 – Bode George insists

According to Adeyanju, “What’s the point of the merger? Is it not to win elections? They can’t win any election against Tinubu’s alignment. They should continue on their ego path. I encourage them to stay divided so that Tinubu’s ‘Babalawo’ can get a raise.

“They had just one job in the last election because we had a president who was clueless and not in charge. He failed so badly that his body language suggested he never wanted Tinubu to win, so all the opposition needed to do was present a united front, but they refused.

“Instead, they chose to wage an ego war. Kwankwaso said he’s the next president, and the same goes for Obi and Atiku. They divided their votes while INEC and Tinubu were united. They had their chance, but they blew it. This Tinubu can’t lose any election.

“Didn’t we see how the results on IReV differed from what was announced in the just-concluded Edo election?

“Tinubu can’t lose an election that he organizes, so it’s pointless. They shouldn’t merge; they should just entertain us and their supporters. There’s no need for any merger; everyone should go and test their popularity.

“All I see is a Tinubu-INEC merger, in a country where people’s votes don’t matter. When you talk about a merger, look at the Edo election, and watch what happens in Ondo as a formality.

“Look at the Kogi and Imo elections, there were no real elections in those places. That’s the country you’re talking about for a merger? They had the opportunity to defeat the APC, but they were too busy fooling around and playing to the gallery.”