The crisis rocking the All Progressives Congress (APC) may have a boomerang effect on the party’s performance at the September 19 and October 10 Edo and Ondo gubernatorial elections, respectively.
If this happens, APC would lose the two strategic states to the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The states are strategic based on their geopolitical zones.
While Edo is from the South-South geopolitical zone and the only state from the oil-rich region that was until recently been governed by the ruling party, Ondo is one of the states in the South-West zone that is predominantly controlled by APC.
The South/South geopolitical zone comprises Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo as well as Rivers State, and with the recent defection of Governor Godwin Obaseki to PDP, the entire zone is now under the control of the main opposition party.
On the other hand, the South-West geopolitical zone is made up of Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo States and except Oyo; all of them are governed by APC.
Edo, which was less than two weeks ago governed by APC with Governor Obaseki in the saddle, was the only state in the South-South zone where the ruling party got 45percent votes in the 2019 presidential election.
According to result of the 2019 general election, APC lost the presidential poll in the entire the oil producing region to the main opposition PDP.
The results showed that in Akwa Ibom, APC scored 175, 429 votes, PDP got 395, 832; Bayelsa, APC obtained 118, 821 and PDP scored 197, 933; in Cross River, APC polled 117, 303 while PDP garnered 295, 737; Delta, APC scored 221, 292 votes, PDP got 594, 068, and in Edo, APC obtained 267,842 whereas, PDP scored 275, 842.
Shortly after the general elections, APC was engulfed in crisis in Edo State due to feud between a former governor of the state and immediate past National Chairman of the party, Adams Oshiomhole and the incumbent, Obaseki.
Though there was bad blood between Oshiomhole and his successor for but it became more visible during the inauguration of the 7th Edo State House of Assembly when 15 out of 24 members, ‘loyal” to the former governor were not inaugurated while nine said to be loyal to the present governor were inaugurated.
Since then, crisis has continue to loom in the party between the Obaseki and Oshiomhole camps, culminating into the recent disqualification of the Edo Governor from participating in the APC in the last Monday governorship primary election through the machinations of Oshiomhole whose anointed candidate, Osagie Ize-Iyamu had emerged the standard bearer.
Consequently, Obaseki jumped ship and joined PDP alongside his Deputy, Philip Shuaibu, appointees, some elected officials and chieftains of the APC.
Obaseki left no one in doubt that Oshiomhole pushed him out APC when he told journalists he decided to resign his membership of the APC because Oshiomhole was “scared of educated people because he did not go to school and hate those who have something to offer citizens”.
He said: “You remember that, in my last tweet, I said that I’ll make a decision after my disqualification was announced by APC. I said I would make a decision after consulting with the leadership and my supporters in Edo State, and also have informed the President.
“I’m just here today to inform you that I have formally decided to resign my membership of the APC. Having done that, I will now announce in the next few days my specific line of action and on what platform I will be contesting the gubernatorial election.
“I am sure the whole country knows what has gone on with me, the party Chairman and the party leadership which culminated in my disqualification as a gubernatorial aspirant. Upon that unfortunate decision by the Chairman of the APC, I’ve decided to go and seek my gubernatorial aspiration on another platform”.
Despite initial hurdles and judicial encumbrances, Obaseki last Thursday emerged consesus candidate of PDP for the Edo governorship race as the other aspirants, Gideon Ikhine and Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama as well as Ken Imasuagbon, stepped down for him.
The governor would now slug it out with his ‘political wife’ (to quote Dino Melaye), Ize-Iyamu who he roundly defeated in 2016 and as many political observers said, the same feat would be repeated on September 19.
A political observer, David Lawal who is conversant with the Edo political environment noted that especially with the removal of Oshiomhole, Ize-Iyamu is left with no political backing to challenge Obaseki at the polls.
He said: “even with Oshiomhole onboard as the National Chairman of APC, it was not going to be easy for Ize-Iyamu not to talk of now that his new found godfather has no political bearing or Federal backing which they were relying on”.
For Ondo State too, APC is facing internal wrangling, capable of denying it victory as many political actors even in the party are not comfortable with Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu leadership and would not want him to get second term ticket.
The crisis reached a climax last week when the Deputy Governor, Agboola Ajayi and other top echelons of the party defected to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) shortly after he was blocked from going out of the Government House by security operatives.
While submitting his resignation letter at the APC secretariat in his ward, Ajayi said that the reason for his decision was public knowledge.
“I am here to officially announce to you that, as from today, I cease to be a member of the APC. I came to tender my resignation letter to the ward chairman. The reason I am taking this action is known to all of you.
“I listened to the advice from all supporters across the state; Ese-Odo Local Government will continue to witness peace and progress.
“It is a painful thing that I’m leaving the APC, but there is time for everything. As a Nigerian, I have the fundamental freedom to belong to any party or group.”
“As I said earlier, everybody all over the world knows why I left the APC. Some hours ago, you all know what happened to me at the Government House, but I am a man of peace”, he said.
The defection of Ajayi came with permutations that he would be fielded as PDP candidate for the September 19 Ondo governorship election as his membership of the party was a major boost to its political calculations.
This was confirmed by the PDP National Chairman, Uche Secondus who said the deputy governor and the other 34 defectors from APC would add value to the PDP which would take over the state after the governorship election.
“The APC has damaged the security and the economy of the Nigeria. Everybody has seen that the APC is taking us to nowhere. I believe Ajayi is coming to the PDP to add value and to make difference.
“We in the PDP do believe the constitution of the country and the constitution of our party. We are one family. Ajayi is not coming to alter any rule. There would be free and fair primary. Everybody has equal right in the party. We are not going to impose any aspirant on others because our target is to take over the state,” Secondus stated.
Beyond that, there is serious disagreement among aspirants for APC governorship ticket in Ondo, including Governor Akeredolu, Olayide Adelami, Ifeoluwa Oyedele, Sola Iji, Akinsehinwa over many issues, particularly the mode of primaries.
While APC is yet to decide on the mode of primaries, most of the aspirants, except the governor who has not indicated preference for any method, are calling for direct primaries for which the governor may not have control.
